WTC Scenario – England’s chances are hit – SL, Bangladesh still in contention

Sri Lanka

Percentage: 42.86, Remaining series: New Zealand (2 home Tests), South Africa (2 away), Australia (2 home)

uk

Percentage: 42.19, Remaining series: Pakistan (3 away Tests), NZ (3 away)

England’s surprise defeat to Sri Lanka at The Oval means they can no longer get past the 60% mark this cycle. With six Test wins remaining, the highest they can achieve is 57.95. That could still be enough if other results are in their favour.

For example, if India is out of the pack, if Australia fails to score more than 42 out of 84 in the remaining seven Tests and no other team scores below 57.95, England can come in second. If Australia comes in first, England will need to keep India from scoring more than 58 and keep them below 57.95. However, if England lose more (down to 54.92% with five wins and one draw), they will need more help from other teams.

India

Percentage: 68.52, Remaining series: Bangladesh (2 home Tests), NZ (3 home Tests), Australia (5 away Tests)

India still sit top with a healthy 68.52%, but they still have 10 games to go, the most of any team. To stay above 60% – they have qualified for the 2023 finals with 58.8% – they need 63 more points, which they can achieve with five wins and a draw. Six wins would put them at 64.03%, but to match their current score, they need seven wins, which would take them to a total of 69.3%.

australia

Percentage: 62.50, Remaining series: India (5 home Tests), SL (2 away)

Australia, currently second, need to score 47 more points from the remaining seven Tests to finish on the right side of 60%. They can do this with four wins or three wins and three draws. The final ranking largely depends on how many points they earn in the five-Test home series against India.

Bangladesh

Percentage: 45.83, Remaining series: India (2 away Tests), West Indies (2 away), South Africa (2 home)

Pakistan

Percentage: 19.05, Remaining series: England (3 home Tests), SA (2 away), WI (2 home)

Pakistan not only lost 2-0 to Bangladesh, but also lost six runs due to poor over-rate. Their percentage dropped from 36.66 at the start of the series to 19.05. The most they can achieve here is 59.52 if they win all seven remaining Tests.

New Zealand

Percentage: 50.00, Remaining series: SL (2 away Tests), India (3 away), England (3 home)

New Zealand have played just six of the 14 Tests this cycle. Five of the remaining eight Tests are in Asia. To finish with 60% of the 96 points, they need at least 65 points. That means they need five wins and two draws (or six), but with three of those being played in India, it will be a tough task.

South Africa

Percentage: 38.89, Remaining series: SL (2 home Tests), Pakistan (2 home), Bangladesh (2 away)

If South Africa win all six Tests, they will finish at 69.44, which would almost certainly secure them a place in the finals. There are home series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan later this year, and a potentially tricky two-Test series in Bangladesh.

West Indies

Percentage: 18.52, Remaining series: Bangladesh (2 home Tests), Pakistan (2 away Tests)

West Indies have already played four series and have won only 20 out of 108. Even if they win the last four Tests, they will finish with 43.59%.