There are 15 Tests remaining in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, with several teams still in contention and no team confident of finishing in the top two. The current team standings are as follows:
south africa
Percentage: 59.26, Matches remaining: SL (1 home Test), Pak (2 home tests)
Even if South Africa beat Sri Lanka in the second Test and draw 1-1 with Pakistan, they would finish the match on 61.11, but would only score 53.85 if Sri Lanka wins both of the second Tests, ensuring a place in the final. australia. So in this case only either Australia or India can transit through South Africa.
sri lanka
Percentage: 50.00, remaining matches: SA (1 away Test), Aus (2 home)
Defeat in Durban means Sri Lanka could finish with a winning percentage of up to 61.54% if they win the remaining three Tests. A place in the finals is still guaranteed as only India or Australia can rank higher. One more Test loss and two wins will bring the ratio down to 53.85, which will depend on a number of other results. Currently, South Africa, India, Australia and New Zealand can exceed 53.85.
New Zealand
Percentage: 50.00, Games remaining: England (2 home)
India
Percentage: 61.11, Games remaining: Aus (4 away)
However, these scenarios are based on the other team maximizing their points. Otherwise, India can succeed with much fewer points. For example, if the following results occur in a future major series:
- India lost 2-3 to Australia.
- New Zealand draws 1-1 with England
- South Africa drew 1-1 at home against Sri Lanka and Pakistan for the remainder of the series.
- Australia draws 0-0 with Sri Lanka
Australia takes first place with 58.77 points, but India’s 53.51 points are enough to take second place ahead of South Africa (52.78), New Zealand (52.38) and Sri Lanka (51.28). So where India ends up will depend on how other outcomes unfold.
australia
Percentage: 57.69, Matches remaining: Ind (4 Tests at home), SL (2 Tests away).
Defeat in Perth means Australia have a lot of work to do to secure a place in the top two without relying on other results. Given that South Africa and Sri Lanka can both finish at above 61%, Australia will need four wins and a draw from their last six games to finish ahead of Sri Lanka’s maximum winning percentage of 61.54. In this case, only South Africa was able to pull ahead with a maximum score of 69.44.
Even if India wins the ongoing series 3-2, Australia can still finish on top, but that would require a 2-0 sweep of the away series against Sri Lanka. In this case, Australia would score 60.53 points, slightly ahead of India’s 58.77 points. In this case, they will definitely be in the top two. Because only South Africa can get through this.
Pakistan
Percentage: 33.33, Series Remaining: SA (2 away), WI (2 home)
Pakistan’s home game has shown some resurgence, but it is likely too late in this cycle. A win in each of the remaining four Tests would close at 52.38. Even in those cases, you need multiple outcomes to make the argument. For example, if Sri Lanka lost 0-1 to South Africa and drew 1-1 to Australia, India lost 1-2 to Australia and New Zealand lost 1-2 to England, Pakistan’s 52.38 would be good enough for second place. no see. Behind Australia.
uk
Percentage: 43.75, Number of matches remaining: NZ (2 away)
England’s win in Christchurch improved their rate slightly to 43.75. It will almost certainly not be enough to qualify, but if several other results go their way, there is a mathematical chance of a second place finish with 48.86. That is, if India cannot go beyond 13 points in the remaining matches and the ceiling is 6 points. Despite ranking 16th in South Africa and Sri Lanka each, England can still finish second behind Australia.
Bangladesh and west indies There is no competition for the top two spots.
S Rajesh is the Statistics Editor at ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats
