WTC Final Scenario – Passes South Africa, but what about India, Australia and Sri Lanka?

India

Percentage: 55.89, Matches remaining: Aus (2 away)

If India wins one Test and draws the other, it will end at 57.02. In that case, if they also win both Tests in Sri Lanka, Australia could lose second place with 58.77 points. For India to qualify at 57.02, Australia must not exceed 16 points (win and draw) in Sri Lanka.

A win or loss in Australia would see India post 55.26 and give Sri Lanka hopes of beating Australia by at least a 1-0 margin.

Two draws would leave India at 53.51. Sri Lanka need a 2-0 win to get through, while Australia need at least one win to beat Sri Lanka.

If India draws a Test and loses the other, they will finish at 51.75 and be eliminated from the race. In that case, Australia would finish ahead of India even if they lost 2-0 in Sri Lanka.

australia

Percentage: 58.89, Matches remaining: Ind (2 home Tests), SL (2 away)

If Australia wins the Melbourne and Sydney Tests against India, they will surely qualify for the WTC final. In this case, even if Sri Lanka loses 2-0, they will finish with 57.02.

A win and a draw against India would put them ahead of India even if they lost both Tests in Sri Lanka, but that would give Sri Lanka a clean sweep of Australia.

If Australia are 1-1 against India, they will need at least one win in Sri Lanka to stay ahead of the race. The same applies if both Tests against India are drawn.

They need two wins in Sri Lanka to get one draw and one loss against India.

A loss in both Tests against India could take Australia out of contention.

sri lanka

Percentage: 45.45, Games remaining: Aus (2 home)

If Sri Lanka beats Australia 2-0, the maximum they can complete is 53.85. To be good enough for second place, one of two scenarios will have to play out in the remaining Border-Gavaskar Trophy Tests.

In another scenario, either Australia or India would score above 53.85 and eliminate Sri Lanka.