One of the most anticipated matchups of the season is scheduled for this week as UConn and USC face off in a 2024 Elite Eight rematch in Hartford, Connecticut. Both teams boast top-10 offenses and defenses, per Her Hoop Stats. This usually indicates a national title contender.
During the preseason, the game was billed as a showdown between Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins, two players expected to win National Player of the Year honors. But another player took them out of that conversation. He’s the same player who helped hand the Huskies and Trojans their only losses of the season. Bueckers and Watkins were outclassed by Hannah Hidalgo against Notre Dame. Because Hidalgo took pole position in the NPOY race.
deeper
Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo has UConn’s number.
It’s still too early in the season to draw any conclusions, but having three players make up such a solid case is a stark contrast to how the competition has played out over the past two seasons. Lauren Betts and Madison Booker are also leading national title prospects (UCLA and Texas also have top-10 offenses and defenses), and Hidalgo may not be popular for long. The relative parity between the top teams also applies to the best players in the country.
This adds even more intrigue to the key matchup between UConn and USC. In addition to undergoing pre-tournament testing, each team’s star can make a big splash to solidify his place in Hidalgo.
Elimination: Iowa (21)
Almost famous: Iowa, Utah, Vanderbilt
Three emerging teams
southern california
While Kiki Iriafen is adjusting to an offensive role at USC, her frontcourt partner Rayah Marshall has been expanding her skillset. Marshall has always shown overwhelming defense, and that hasn’t changed even as a senior. Her block rate is in the 99th percentile nationally and she stops more shots. Opponents are shooting a ridiculous 23.9% with Marshall as their primary defender, as he can defend the post and cover the perimeter. USC’s defense is 16.7 points per 100 points better when Marshall is on the court.
But Marshall has become more versatile offensively this season. Playing next to Iriafen, who was excellent near the basket, forced Marshall to start the possession on the perimeter. Marshall is not a long-range shooting threat, as he has made two field goals from outside the paint all season. (One of those came against Elon on Sunday.) But her drive game has improved, allowing her to get into the lane, break down the defense and dump the ball to Iriapen. Notice how Marshall easily marked Iriafen on these two possessions. The second possession follows the brand block at the opposite end.
As a center, she has the third-most assists at USC behind Watkins and Talia von Oelhoffen. Marshall had a below-average assist-to-turnover ratio in her first two seasons at USC and a below-average assist-to-turnover ratio last year, but she is now one of the most efficient frontcourt passers. The Trojans need Marshall’s ability to create space for Iriafen to work. If these two can amplify each other, USC’s offensive ceiling will increase.
kentucky
Georgia Amure’s 3-point shooting has fallen off a cliff this season. This is because a career 35.3% of shooters are making a quarter of their attempts from beyond the arc. As the alpha and omega of Kentucky’s offense, Amoore will need to be an individual scoring threat for the Wildcats to win games against quality opponents. Two weeks ago against North Carolina, Amure missed all five 3-pointers, and Kentucky lost by 19 points.
But Amure seems to be rediscovering his groove. In the Wildcats’ two wins last week, the fifth-year guard shot 5 of 14 from deep. That’s a huge improvement from a terrible start to the year, and Kentucky was especially crafty in the midrange against Purdue in its first true road win. 2024-25 games. The Wildcats used Amoore as a screener on some inverted pick-and-rolls to throw Amoore off the ball. She was able to turn and take on larger defenders and use her speed to dust herself off on her way to the hoop.
It’s been fun to see how Kentucky wants to attack the zone this season
They’re a really good offensive team, but they’ve had some struggles in zone to start the year.
I really liked the counter against Purdue yesterday. Take the ball out of Amoore’s hands and nail her. pic.twitter.com/r8mMxHprMM
— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) December 15, 2024
Kentucky got off to a slow start against the Boilermakers, scoring just two points in the first seven-plus minutes. Amure then scored 13 points in 10 minutes, overturning the early deficit into a 3-point lead. Amoore was already an outstanding floor general and playmaker for the Wildcats, averaging 7.2 assists per game. If Kentucky adds a shooting loss, it could cause some noise in the SEC.
Georgia Tech
The last undefeated team in the ACC is Georgia Tech. This is a result no one expected coming into the season. The Yellow Jackets are coming off good wins over Oregon State and South Dakota State, and now head into a game against North Carolina that was an absolute talking point in the first half.
Georgia Tech is working hard to win possession battles. The Yellow Jackets attack the offensive glass and don’t turn the ball over, resulting in 12.8 more shot attempts per game than their opponents. With that margin, they don’t even have to shoot that well to win, but their effective field goal percentage ranks in the 86th percentile nationally. Therefore, an 11-0 record is the best start in program history. They also don’t rely too much on individual players. Seven Yellow Jackets average at least 20 minutes per game, but none exceeds 30 minutes. They rank fourth among power conference teams in bench points behind South Carolina, Texas and Tennessee.
What was striking about the win over the Tar Heels was that there was nothing that seemed anomalous. They put a lot of pressure on the rim in the half court and in transition, and Tonie Morgan and Zoesha Smith did a good job scoring in the paint. Dani Carnegie is as good as any freshman in the ACC, leading the team in scoring and threatening a 50/40/90 shooting season. Even if they don’t force turnovers at an elite rate, they are aggressive on defense and speed up opponents. And they play hard, which is where depth comes in handy. After 11 games, it’s time to put together our preseason projects. Georgia Tech is no longer a fluke and is much better than the 10th ranked team in this conference.
two teams falling
texas
That’s the problem after the Longhorns won two games this week by a total of 69 points, including against Richmond, which is ranked 25th in the NET. But something about Texas’ offense bugs me.
Madison Booker is the only consistent scoring threat, and while her offense relies on some difficult shots, it’s to her credit that she’s hitting them at a high clip. However, the Longhorns are somewhat isolated and don’t use much 3-point shooting, which limits their advantage against top teams. Ideally, Aaliyah Moore or Laila Phelia would be the secondary offensive line behind Booker, but neither has appeared this season. It doesn’t help that the paint is incredibly crowded, especially since Rory Harmon, who isn’t considered a shooter, has replaced Shaylee Gonzalez in the starting lineup.
Texas forced 24 turnovers and made 20 more field goals against the Spiders, but won only 10 of them. It was similar to the season-ending loss to NC State in 2023-24, when the Longhorns also had a plus-20 field goal advantage but lost. Advanced stats say Texas has a good offense, but the process seems too daunting and it’s something to keep an eye on as the SEC slate begins.
iowa
The Hawkeyes continue to put on a show, but they need to figure out how to close games out. A week ago, they unraveled in the fourth quarter against Tennessee, falling 14-1 for their first loss of the season. Against Michigan State on Sunday, Iowa blew a nine-point lead and allowed a 14-0 run in the fourth quarter. Those two games sandwiched the Hawkeyes’ comeback against Iowa State, but that ending was more of a struggle for the Cyclones than for Iowa.
Giving the ball away at 25 percent in the clutch, the Hawkeyes’ turnovers are getting out of control. This despite Iowa often playing smaller and with more ballhandlers. Instead, the Hawkeyes struggled to control possession and compromised their defense in the process as their lineup with No. 5 Hannah Stuelke failed to get enough stops. Some of the giveaways are comical, like an errant pass that ended up in the hands of coach Jan Jensen in the final game against Michigan State.
Iowa has some young players this season, but the turnover is coming from veterans. Lucy Olsen scored seven goals and fellow senior Kylie Feuerbach had five against the Spartans. Stuelke and senior Addison O’Grady are averaging 4.9 turnovers in the frontcourt. Some mistakes are expected due to the Hawkeyes’ rapid pace, but this level of carelessness cannot continue in the Big Ten.
(Rayah Marshall Photo: Meg Oliphant / Getty Images)
