For six weeks, South Korea has suffered its worst political crisis in decades, raising questions about the resilience of the country’s democracy. When the Constitutional Court on Tuesday begins deliberations on whether to remove or reinstate the impeached president, it marks the biggest step toward a resolution.
The eight judges will ultimately judge the fate of President Yoon Seok-yeol, who was impeached by the National Assembly on December 14 and suspended from office on charges of declaring martial law for a short period of time 11 days ago.
The stakes are high. Rival civic groups have been rallying in front of the courthouse for weeks, demanding that Yoon resign or remain in office. Hardliners on both sides have warned that a ‘civil war’ could break out if the court does not rule in their favor.
If Mr. Yoon is dismissed, it will be another major blow to the Korean conservative camp. He would be the third conservative president in a row to be ousted, imprisoned, or both before or after the end of his term.
But if a deeply unpopular leader is allowed to remain in office, it could set a precedent for future leaders to use martial law as a political tool, said Ha Sang-eung, a political science professor at Sogang University in Seoul.
“I wonder what other democracies around the world will think about something like this happening in Korea,” Ha said.
Mr. Yoon pledged to win at the Constitutional Court. But his lawyers said he would not attend the first hearing on Tuesday, citing concerns that criminal investigators might try to detain him for questioning on sedition charges if he leaves his fortified residence in central Seoul. Tuesday’s hearing is expected to be shortened due to his absence. But the court may proceed with deliberations at a second hearing scheduled for Thursday, with or without him.
Attorney Yoon Gap-geun said, “President Yoon will defend himself in court as long as necessary.”
Mr. Yoon’s martial law went into effect just six hours after it was rejected by lawmakers in the opposition-led National Assembly. But his attempt to bring South Korea under military rule for the first time in 40 years has sparked prolonged political uncertainty in key U.S. allies, who have expressed concern about Yoon’s moves.
While Mr. Yoon faces a parallel criminal investigation on charges of insurrection, the focus on resolving his presidency has now shifted to the Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court’s decision could help alleviate some of that uncertainty, or it could add to confusion if the decision upsets the public. .
As the country’s political polarization has deepened in recent years, there are more and more cases that only the courts can handle, including public officials impeached by Congress, prosecutors, and judges. Mr. Yoon is the third South Korean president to be impeached in the past 20 years.
In 2004, President Roh Moo-hyun was impeached by the National Assembly on charges of violating election laws, but was reinstated after the court ruled that his crimes were not serious. In 2017, the court ousted Park Geun-hye, another president who had been impeached on charges of corruption and abuse of power.
“When a country is adrift without a captain or without knowing who the captain is, the Constitutional Court puts it back on track,” said Jeong Ji-woong, a lawyer and president of the Bar Association of Gyeonggi Province, a populous region around Seoul.
Although Korea has a separate Supreme Court, the Constitutional Court was established in 1987 as the final interpretive body of the Constitution. The court, located in Seoul’s quiet old quarter, often attracted rival activists with banners and loudspeakers as the historic ruling neared.
In 2005, it abolished the centuries-old practice of allowing children to take their father’s surname. In 2009, it voted against a bill banning nighttime protest gatherings and allowing citizens to gather after hours to voice their grievances, as they have supported and opposed Mr. Yoon in recent months. In 2015, the court decriminalized adultery. In 2019, it struck down a 66-year-old law that made abortion a crime punishable by up to two years in prison.
As the number of impeachment cases increases, the court has become more politically important, and each judge serves a six-year term. Three are elected by the President, three by the Chief Justice, and three by political parties.
There are currently 8 Supreme Court Justices and 1 vacancy. Two people were selected by Mr. Yoon and his party, including three former and current Supreme Court Chief Justices; And there are three members of Moon Jae-in, Yoon’s predecessor, and the current opposition Democratic Party.
Yoon could be removed from office if more than six justices agree, but he may not be able to rely on the court’s partisanship to save him. In the past, judges did not always vote based on who supported their appointment. The court unanimously ruled to remove Park Geun-hye from office, even though some were appointed by her own political party.
The court’s ruling will depend on the seriousness of the constitutional and legal violations that Yun is found to have committed, said Bang Seung-ju, a law professor at Hanyang University Law School in Seoul. In addition, he said, “We will also consider whether not deporting would have a greater disadvantage to the constitutional order and national interests than dismissal, such as by encouraging political instability.”
Prosecutors at the court are appointed by the National Assembly and say Mr. Yoon committed the rebellion by sending armed troops to the National Assembly and ordering them to seize the building and detain political enemies. Since taking office in 2022, Mr. Yoon has been locked in a confrontation, justifying martial law and calling the National Assembly a “den of criminals.”
Prosecutors said Yoon also violated the Constitution by banning all political activities and imposing military control over the media.
Prosecutors have already arrested a former defense minister and several military generals on charges of aiding Yoon’s rebellion. Prosecutors said that Mr. Yoon instructed the generals to break down the National Assembly doors and “pull out” the lawmakers “using gunfire if necessary.”
The president’s lawyer, Yoon Gap-geun, said the testimony was “corrupt.”
However, legal analysts including Noh Hee-beom, former research judge at the Constitutional Court, expect the court to remove Mr. Yoon from office as early as February because it will ease the country’s political uncertainty and there is sufficient evidence to do so.
“It’s just a matter of time,” Mr. Noh said.
