After five months of slow and steady play, baseball is about to shift into fast and furious mode. September is almost here, which means the annual all-out battle for the postseason is about to begin.
It’s already happened, but it could have been if we missed it.
FanGraphs’ oddsmakers seem to think the playoff situation is pretty much set in stone.
Entering Thursday’s game, FanGraphs said there were six teams in the American League with a 74% or better chance of making the playoffs, and only one with a 20% chance. The National League was more clearly defined, with five teams having at least a 90% chance of making the playoffs, another just under a 75% chance, and the only other strong contender having a 25.3% chance.
Every other NL team had a single-digit playoff chance, but that wasn’t the case until August 1. At that time, 19 teams had at least an 11% chance of making the playoffs, and the 20th team (the defending champion Texas Rangers) had a 9.4% chance.
Whether or not a team makes the playoffs will likely be more influenced by what happens in the last five weeks than by what happens in the next five weeks.
American League Playoff Odds
| team | 3 months ago | All-Star Game | diagonal | 2 weeks ago | today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
22.6% |
52.4% |
43.5% |
42.9% |
39.1% |
|
|
33.4% |
16.4% |
13.4% |
7.5% |
4.0% |
|
|
59.5% |
82.1% |
82.3% |
89.2% |
87.7% |
|
|
62.0% |
32.8% |
47.0% |
55.5% |
75.1% |
|
|
12.4% |
7.5% |
2.8% |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
|
51.0% |
58.3% |
58.2% |
61.9% |
90.3% |
|
|
62.8% |
56.5% |
48.9% |
51.4% |
12.6% |
|
|
19.7% |
11.9% |
14.4% |
3.6% |
0.5% |
There are still tight division battles in the AL East, AL Central, and perhaps even the NL West, but those battles are fought among teams with wild-card advantages and don’t necessarily need a division title to play in October.
The New York Yankees (99.4% chance of making the playoffs), Baltimore Orioles (97.8%), and Cleveland Guardians (92.5%) are basically guaranteed postseason spots in the American League, while the Houston Astros (90.3%) and Minnesota Twins (87.7%) are statistically safe bets. The Kansas City Royals currently hold the final wild card spot with a 75.1% chance.
Elsewhere, the Boston Red Sox (39.1%) are the only team that could really compete. The Seattle Mariners are down to 12.6% and the Tampa Bay Rays, who made some noise in July, are down to 4%.
In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers (100%), Philadelphia Phillies (99.5%), and Milwaukee Brewers (99.3%) are all but certain to make the postseason, while the San Diego Padres (95.1%) and Arizona Diamondbacks (92%), who have been hot favorites since the middle of the season, are also in strong positions to join them.
The preseason favorite Atlanta Braves have been hit hard by injuries, but even they have a 74.6% chance of making the final wild card spot. The only team meaningfully chasing the Braves is the New York Mets, whose playoff odds have dropped from just over 50% in late July to 25.5%. No other NL team has a double-digit playoff chance, with only the San Francisco Giants (7%) having a chance higher than 3%.
National League Playoff Odds
| team | 3 months ago | All-Star Game | diagonal | 2 weeks ago | today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
99.0% |
93.5% |
80.0% |
60.7% |
74.6% |
|
|
14.4% |
44.2% |
51.6% |
38.8% |
25.2% |
|
|
53.1% |
11.7% |
5.6% |
7.6% |
2.6% |
|
|
26.2% |
42.1% |
22.7% |
17.3% |
2.8% |
|
|
8.1% |
16.9% |
15.9% |
2.7% |
0.3% |
|
|
5.8% |
8.6% |
6.0% |
2.1% |
1.6% |
|
|
57.9% |
38.9% |
62.8% |
88.4% |
95.1% |
|
|
38.0% |
39.7% |
49.9% |
75.2% |
92.0% |
|
|
34.7% |
24.0% |
17.6% |
16.7% |
7.0% |
That clarity actually started after the All-Star break. Since the break, the best teams in baseball have been the Diamondbacks (23-8), Padres (22-7), Dodgers (20-11), Royals (19-11), Astros (18-12) and Brewers (18-11), and those six teams have swung the balance of every playoff spot that was all but decided.
The Astros have been thoroughly separated from the Mariners in the AL West. The two were a game apart at the break, but the Mariners have a losing record since the trade deadline despite floundering for several weeks and making significant additions (the Oakland A’s, who have made no progress, have surpassed them in August).
The AL Wild Card race has basically been guaranteed one spot for a long time (the East’s second-place team will undoubtedly be the Wild Card), but the Royals and Twins have the other two spots. They’re tied, 3 1/2 games ahead of the Red Sox and at least six games ahead of every other team. It’s not an insurmountable lead, but one Red Sox blog is trying to figure out what it would take for the Red Sox to close that gap.
The Twins are 90/91. They need to go 25-11 to get to 92.
If they go 5-5 against AZ/BAL/NYY, they should go 20-6 against all other teams.
They absolutely need to get to 10-2 or better in this set for it to be mathematically solvable. https://t.co/xnh14lOalA
— Chris Hatfield (@SPChrisHatfield) August 22, 2024
In the National League, the Brewers have distanced themselves from the rest of the Central. As of July 13, the weekend before the All-Star Game, the Cardinals were 3 1/2 games out of first place, and every team in the division had at least an 8 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Brewers are currently the only team in the division above . 500, and no other team has a 3 percent chance of playing in October.
In the NL West, the Giants have been better than most since the break (18-14), but they haven’t kept up with the pace of the charging Padres and Diamondbacks, who each might have caught the heavily favored Dodgers if the Dodgers hadn’t been on a roll. One team will win the West, and the other two will be favorites to advance to the wild card. FanGraphs rates the Padres and Diamondbacks as equal playoff odds with the Guardians, who are one of the best teams in baseball and have an off-the-charts vibe.
With the Phillies dominating the NL East, the only spot left open for some contention in the National League is the final wild card, currently held by the Braves, who added Austin Riley to an injured list that already includes Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies. If the Mets can get hot like they did in July, they could close the gap and make a legitimate run at the preseason favorite for a playoff spot.
The Red Sox could probably ride their momentum and make the postseason by beating one of the favorites in the AL Central. They won’t be without work over the next five weeks.
But once all is said and done and the playoff teams are determined, you may find that the real run to October is over before the calendar even turns to September.
(Above photo: Sean M. Happy/Getty Images)
