Could Ichiro Suzuki become the second player to be unanimously inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum? Can Billy Wagner regain the five votes he missed last year to enter his final year of eligibility? Can CC Sabathia make it to Cooperstown on his first try?
All three scenarios are on the table ahead of the Hall of Fame voting results being announced on January 21st.
Voting is conducted by nearly 400 eligible voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America. As of Tuesday afternoon, all 151 ballots recorded in Ryan Thibodaux’s Baseball Hall of Fame tracker had checked the box next to Suzuki’s name.
To date, only famed Yankee closer Mariano Rivera has been unanimously elected to the Hall of Fame. Not Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr., or Derek Jeter, just Rivera. Could Suzuki be second?
Thibodaux said he doesn’t expect a response until the results are official.
“I haven’t seen him voted off the ballot yet, and I’m guessing voting won’t be halted until the results are announced,” Thibodaux said in a direct message to Bluesky earlier this week. “If someone quits him, we won’t know at all until afterward.”
Jeter was removed from the ballot once in 2020, and Griffey was removed from the ballot three times in 2016.
Voters are not required to reveal their ballots, but the Hall of Famers may reveal their choices by checking a box on the ballot after the votes are announced. Last year, a total of 385 ballots were returned, of which 306 voters decided to make their ballots public. Neither the voters who passed Jeter in 2020 nor the three who voted Griffey off the ballot in 2016 have been made public.
Suzuki isn’t the only candidate with judo tendencies. Sabathia scored 140%, or 92.7%, which bodes well for a first-year candidate.
“I will admit that I am a bit surprised by the strong support from CC so far. I had my eye on him as perhaps a 75% bubble candidate, but he has fared well so far and has remained comfortably in the low 90s for most of the voting season,” Thibodaux wrote. “Unless public and private voters have wildly different assessments of Sabathia’s qualifications, he will likely be a Hall of Famer on the first ballot.”
FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe, author of “The Cooperstown Casebook,” said he was surprised Sabathia appeared on the ballot in his first year.
“I thought he was going to be a screamer like (Joe) Mauer was last year,” said Jaffe, who created the commonly referenced JAWS (Jaffe War Score System) to help Hall of Fame voters register candidates. “He said. Historical perspective. “I don’t expect him to stay at 92% or even 90%, but I think it’s very likely he’ll be above 80%.”
Wagner was the 10th and final member to vote. After failing to achieve 75% a year ago, he has been steadily trending toward induction. As of Tuesday afternoon, he had 84.1% of the public vote.
It’s not just raw numbers that Wagner likes. The trend is also behind it. Having just been eliminated, he was added to eight ballots that didn’t include him last year, and out of the 141 public votes submitted, there is no one who checked his name last year who didn’t pick him this year. Another eight first-time voters also voted for Wagner.
“There are still more first-time voters, so he will have to maintain solid support from that group,” Thibodaux wrote. “There may be dozens of older voters among this year’s voters. “If he has extremely strong support among them, there may still be work to be done to get him across the finish line.”
Carlos Beltrán had 79.5% of the vote as of Tuesday afternoon, while Andruw Jones was just below the threshold at 74.2%. Last year, people who released their ballots before they were announced received an average of 7.55 votes per vote, according to Thibodaux. Voters who waited until after the announcement received an average of 6.77 votes per vote, and an average of 5.8 votes per vote in closed voting. Thibodaux, who began tracking votes in 2012, said the trend has remained steady over the years.
Current vote totals are not encouraging for Beltran or Jones with regard to their 2025 hopes, but are positive for their eventual admission. In next year’s first-year eligible class, there are no players with a career bWAR of 60 or more, including Suzuki (60) and Sabathia (62.3). The top first-year players in next year’s poll are Cole Hamels (59 bWAR) and Ryan Braun (47.1 bWAR).
Jaffe said Sabathia’s strong support bodes well for the future of not only Sabathia, but also Andy Pettitte, Félix Hernández, Mark Buehrle and Hamels.
“Andy Pettitte and Félix Hernández are almost polar opposites in how they got to this point. Pettitte had a very skilled career and a lot of postseason work that was very important for the team to get to and win the World Series. “Felix was very high in his prime and lacked longevity, burned out early and had no postseason experience,” Jeffy said.
Pettitte, who was seventh on the ballot, had 31.8% of the vote as of Tuesday afternoon. Last year, Pettit received 52 votes (13.5%), and this year he is already on 48 votes, which represents a significant leap forward. Hernández, in his first year on the ballot, had won 25.2% of the votes released as of Tuesday afternoon.
While the focus on voting is always on the 75% line needed for induction, another metric to keep an eye on is the 5% needed to stay on the ballot.
Of the 14 names on the ballot for the first time, seven had not received a public vote as of Tuesday morning. Of the remaining seven first-year eligible players, only Suzuki, Sabathia, Hernández and Dustin Pedroia (12.6%) received the 5% needed to remain on the ballot.
That means 10 players are at risk of being voted off the ballot in their first year, including two catchers in Russell Martin (4.6%) and Brian McCann (4%). Torii Hunter (1.3%), who was voting for the fifth time, and Francisco Rodriguez (7.9%), who was voting for the third year, also face the possibility of not receiving 5%. On the fifth ballot, Mark Buehrle had 19 votes as of Tuesday morning, which would be enough to keep him on the ballot for another year unless fewer than 380 ballots are returned. Voting one more time for Buehrle between Tuesday afternoon and next week’s announcement will ensure the longtime Chicago White Sox starter will be on next year’s ballot.
(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
