The events in Dublin on Saturday will reverberate Down Under from now until next summer as the clash between Ireland and Australia sets the tone for the Lions’ Test series against the Wallabies.
It’s Andy Farrell versus Joe Schmidt taking place in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney on consecutive weekends in July and August. It will be significant and have wider implications for both teams as the pinnacle of British and Irish rugby, backed by the famous Red Army with around 40,000 traveling fans, aims to repeat their victory in the same hostile fixture in 2025. We will strive for possible results. Territory 12 years ago.
As a man poised to take charge of the Lions, Farrell is well aware of this bigger picture, but first he will remain firmly focused on Ireland’s efforts to close out the autumn series with a convincing win.
The world number two will need a successful finish to avoid any suspicions they are in the first stages of decline after losing to New Zealand and struggling to overcome Argentina.
Despite these faint fears, the Irish core is still destined to be dominant players in the next Lions squad. Every four years, the selection process highlights the balance of power in the country.
Current rankings and perceptions show that Ireland has the largest representation, followed by Scotland, England and Wales, which this time face the threat of a near-total eclipse.
Andy Farrell’s side will be looking for their third win of the autumn series against Australia on Saturday.
Ireland ran riot against Fiji at the Aviva Stadium last weekend, winning 52-17.
Wallabies boss Joe Schmidt will renew hostilities with Farrell when the Lions arrive in Australia next summer.
It may not be a vintage crop of candidates across four countries, but competition will generally be strong in many fields. So who are the front-line contenders for inclusion in the UK? Maro Itoje and Marcus Smith lead the way, along with wing sensation Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, Ellis Genge and stalwarts of the current Steve Borthwick pack such as Tom Curry, George Martin and Ollie Chessum.
Ben Earl should make the cut, but if Toulouse are aiming for a top 14 play-off place as usual, Jack Willis could be denied a legitimate chance at a place.
Chandler Cunningham-South is emerging as a promising prospect for the Lions, but the battle for a back row spot will be fiercer than ever. There may still be time for a young England player like Fin Baxter or Asher Opoku-Fordjour to take on the challenge.
Wales have a proud record of churning out numbers for the Lions in their professional era, but the loss of 12 Tests has raised the unthinkable scenario that they may not be represented in a Lions team of 36 or 40 players. Recent captains Dewi Lake and Jac Morgan could be selected, but not many of their other compatriots. James Botham was heroic in the adversity against South Africa but he has a long line in the back row and the same goes for Tommy Reffell.
The Test team selection debate will become more intense in the coming months, perhaps even more so than the top 10 selection. Here, it’s shaping up to be a box-office race between Finn Russell and Marcus Smith. Ireland are busy developing playmaking options after Johnny Sexton, and Owen Farrell could be assessed if he excels on his return from Racing. But Jamison Gibson-Park, who plays for Ireland on Saturday, is a clear favorite to start at scrumhalf for the Lions.
In a sense, the wider selection game is about considering whether a non-Irish player could earn a place in the Lions’ first-choice XV ahead of the players Farrell admires so much in his job. Scotland captain Sione Tuipulotu and his regular midfield sidekick Huw Jones will likely be in the mix, along with Bundee Aki, Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose against the Wallabies on Saturday.
Feyi-Waboso has been given the chance to feature in the Test XV alongside either James Lowe or Duhan van der Merwe. At fullback, Hugo Keenan takes the lead. Scotland’s Blair Kinghorn could mount a challenge, but he is another potential casualty of Toulouse’s domestic success in France.
It wouldn’t be a leap of the imagination to see Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong sitting front row across Ireland. Itoje is almost certainly locked in, potentially alongside Tadhg Beirne, unless he wears the number 6. That probably means Joe McCarthy or James Ryan will take the other second spot. If Curry is fit and in his prime (but that’s a big ‘if’), it’s likely he’ll be either Sale flanker on the openside or Josh van der Flyer.
Marcus Smith (pictured) and Maro Itoje are the front-line England candidates to make the Lions squad.
The Test team selection debate will be as fierce as the No. 10 selection, which is shaping up to be a box-office race between Finn Russell and Marcus Smith.
Jamison Gibson-Park, who will feature for Ireland on Saturday, is a clear favorite to start at scrum-half for the Lions.
The captaincy has always been an area of great intrigue. Caelan Doris won that honor and Test No. 8 shirt favorite, but we wouldn’t consider that just yet. “It’s beyond my imagination,” he said recently. ‘When I set my goals for the season, of course there was talk about the tour. I really wanted to do that.
But going forward, you don’t want to get caught up in something and not perform every week or end up missing out on it.’
The Leinster forward is a classy, respected and eloquent figure, but there is no escaping the fact that he is not the undisputed leader the Lions have had on previous modern tours. He doesn’t have the iconic status of Alun Wyn Jones, Sam Warburton, Paul O’Connell, Brian O’Driscoll or Martin Johnson. But honestly, who else is there? Probably Itoje.
Whatever you say about the leadership group, the captain must have confidence. Not many people have the status, authority and kind of ambassadorial qualities required for such a high-profile, long-distance sports mission.
The Lions squad and captain will likely be announced in late April or early May next year. Before then, Farrell snr is set to reveal his assistant coaches after the Six Nations. It will be interesting to see whether he opts for familiarity and continuity or a revamp to put his own stamp on the setting. O’Connell and Adam Jones could be new additions, while Gregor Townsend and Steve Tandy are committed for 2021 and could be called upon again.
Felix Jones is back in Dublin, nominally working in the UK and serving a 12-month notice period. Implementing a blitz system in a limited amount of time will be quite a challenge, but there’s no reason he can’t be approached to run the defense.
This is another challenge for the manager as Neil Jenkins has always been the kicking guru in the last four tours. What about Sexton in that role? Or Johnny Wilkinson? It could also be a good fit for Kevin Sinfield.
Farrell will officially be in Lions mode starting next week. But you can also take a short break before embarking on an important mission. He will travel Down Under for operational reconnaissance in January and then scrutinize the Six Nations to fine-tune his selection plans. As is the time-honored tradition, there is still plenty of time for the balance of power to shift and for a later bolter to emerge.
The first Englishman to take charge of a British and Irish crusade since Sir Clive Woodward 20 years ago will find that the task ahead will be far more difficult than he had anticipated just months earlier. The Wallabies were in complete disarray but bounced back on this domestic tour.
Saturday’s clash with Ireland will provide a better indication of Australia’s qualifications. But they were strong, slick, bold and lethal in winning against England and putting Wales to the sword before being ambushed by Scotland last weekend. Farrell is filled with admiration for the transformative work of his former boss, Schmidt, and will compete with him.
This duel between the Master and the Cross Code Apprentice will be fascinating, even more so when the main event takes place on the other side of the world. Farrell and his Lions will be a favorite of the series.
But the process of quickly building a functional team will be more complex than ever and the Wallabies have proven they will not be easy prey.
