Washington — The Associated Press declared President-elect Donald Trump the winner in Arizona Saturday night after voting updates from Maricopa and other counties added to his overall lead, putting the state out of reach for Vice President Kamala Harris.
When the AP called the primary at 9:21 p.m. ET, Trump led Harris by about 185,000 votes, 52.6% to 46.4%. Harris needed to win about 7 out of 10 votes out of the roughly 443,000 uncounted votes remaining, a percentage that steadily increased as additional votes were counted.
Trump currently has 312 Electoral College votes, compared to Harris’ 226 votes, sweeping all seven fiercely contested presidential races. The number needed to be elected president is 270.
In 2020, President Joe Biden narrowly defeated Trump but won Maricopa County by 48 votes, a 50 percentage point margin. On Saturday, Trump led Harris 52 to 47.
The AP declares a winner only if it determines that the trailing candidate cannot close the gap and overtake the vote-getting leader.
Let’s take a look at what AP called this race.
Candidate: President: Harris (Democrat) vs. Trump (right) vs. Chase Oliver (Liberal) vs. Jill Stein (green).
Winner: Trump.
Voting closes at 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday. Arizona does not release its votes until all precincts have reported or one hour after all polls close, whichever comes first, generally by 10 PM ET.
About the race: Harris and Trump crossed this border state, where immigration is a major issue, several times before Election Day.
Trump has put immigration at the center of his candidacy, promising to deport people without legal documentation, while Harris has called for a path to citizenship and increased border security.
Independent voters are the largest bloc in the state, followed by Republicans, followed by Democrats, who have won Senate races and the governorship since 2018.
Biden became the second Democrat in 70 years to win the state.
Both candidates served high-turnout Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, Mesa and Tempe. Trump carried the county by three points in 2016, and Biden won it by two points four years later. Arizona is a primarily early voting state. In 2016, more than three-quarters of the votes were cast early. In 2020, that percentage rose to nearly 90%.
Why AP named the race:
In statewide elections 12 years ago, Democrats always carried four counties – Apache, Coconino, Pima and Santa Cruz – in both wins and losses.
Harris significantly outperformed Trump in all four counties, but has far underperformed Biden’s performance since 2020.
She was going after Trump in crucial Maricopa County, which Biden won in 2020 and which has been a must-win county for statewide Democratic candidates in recent elections.
Harris very briefly led the statewide vote on election night, but Trump has held a steady lead ever since.
An AP analysis of Arizona’s voting records and county-level political demographics found there was no scenario in which Harris could close the gap. The analysis also found that even if the remaining updates showed voting swings in Harris’s favor, it would not be enough to give her the lead.
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Learn more about how and why the AP declares winners in U.S. elections in Explaining Election 2024, a series from the Associated Press to help you understand American democracy. AP receives support from several private foundations to strengthen its coverage of elections and democracy. Learn more about AP’s Democracy Initiative here. AP is solely responsible for all content.
