Back in the old days, this was called a big play. Or maybe it was called a long play. It is not clear when or why footballers started calling it an “explosive play” or just an “explosion.” It was probably around the time that footballers started calling position groups “rooms.”
Football players also differ on what constitutes an explosive play, as there is no official definition. Some players use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.
“People tend to be biased in their favor,” University of Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.
However, there is a growing consensus that statistics are very important. Explosive play spareIt largely dictates who wins the game, as in who has more in the game. Maybe it’s always been that way, or maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing. That means a bend-but-unbreakable defense has the advantage, and a ground-and-pound offense doesn’t.
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Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a prime example. Kentucky outgained Georgia 284-262 in yards and had a good running game in the second half. But in the decisive second half (using the definition of an explosive play as 12-plus yards rushing and 16-plus yards passing), Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs) while Kentucky had just one, as Georgia’s defense gave up ground but was solid when needed.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart and Carson Beck (15) survived a 13-12 win over Kentucky on Saturday. (Carter Scaggs/Emagineers)
This is just one example from this season, and the data continues to show that explosive play margins are a key factor, as they have been in previous seasons.
2024 (so far)
Teams with explosive play margins in SEC play (whether conference or non-conference) have a 32-2 record.
The biggest exception was Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss to Oklahoma State, where the Razorbacks blew a big lead and killed themselves with penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus-2). The other was Vanderbilt (nine blasts) that lost by five to Georgia (eight blasts).
When the explosive play margins are equal or close, the team gives itself a chance. But as the situation worsens, it becomes more difficult. Here’s the analysis by margin, via TruMedia:
- +10 or more: 10-1
- +5 ~ +9: 13-0
- +1 ~ +4: 9-1
- Even: 1-2
- -1 ~ -4 : 3-4
- -5 ~ -9: 0-3
- -10 or less: 0-1
On a cumulative basis, the data is similar. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three are in the bottom four in overall explosive play margin. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-5 in its win at South Carolina.
SEC explosive plays per game
| team | explosive | Opponent’s explosives | differential |
|---|---|---|---|
|
16.00 |
2.67 |
13.33 |
|
|
6pm |
6.00 |
12.00 |
|
|
5pm |
5.33 |
11.67 |
|
|
10.33 |
2.67 |
7.67 |
|
|
11.67 |
4.33 |
7.33 |
|
|
10.67 |
4.00 |
6.67 |
|
|
7.67 |
3.00 |
4.67 |
|
|
11.00 |
7.00 |
4.00 |
|
|
8.00 |
5.33 |
2.67 |
|
|
8.00 |
6.67 |
1.33 |
|
|
6.00 |
5.67 |
0.33 |
|
|
7.67 |
7.33 |
0.33 |
|
|
5.00 |
5.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
9.00 |
9.67 |
-0.67 |
|
|
8.33 |
9.33 |
-1.00 |
|
|
7.67 |
9.00 |
-1.33 |
source: True Media
Recent Season Records
SEC teams that made more explosive plays than their opponents between 2019-23 had an overall record of 397-72. According to TruMedia, the higher the margin in those games, the better the chance of winning.
- +10 or more: 52-2 (.963)
- +5 ~ +9: 153-9 (.944)
- +1 ~ +4: 193-61(.760)
- Even: 42-38 (.525)
- -1 ~ -4: 62-145(.300)
- -5 ~ -9: 10-87(.103)
- -10 or less: 2-16 (.111)
(For reference, four of the 12 times a team lost by more than five points occurred during the 2020 COVID-19 season.)
On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions and six College Football Playoff participants, including 2021 Georgia, have each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that have won national titles during that span have each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.
Does defense win championships? No, explosive play margins win.
Reason for data
3-and-outs are great, but they’re not a necessity and they’re much harder to come by than they used to be. According to TruMedia, the percentage of 3-and-outs forced by SEC defenses has dropped from 35.5% in 2004 to 31.5% in 2014 to 27.8% so far this year.
However, the defense offers a better chance of making a mistake as the attacker has to stay on the pitch longer.
Georgia’s defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown in its last four games, and in the season opener, Clemson was limited to three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky made just one 3-and-out of its 10 drives. The bigger issue was that the Wildcats were prevented from entering the red zone on all but one of their possessions.
On the other side of the ball, offenses that play bigger chunks of play have less room for error. As a result, time of possession has become much less meaningful. Ole Miss (28:55), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) have all averaged less time of possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) have barely crossed the mark.
In a high-scoring era, coaches prefer points over long drives that only result in threes. Turnover margins still matter, as do field position and other traditional factors. But explosive play margins can tell the story better than anything else.
(Top photo of Jaxson Dart and Nico Iamaleava, left: Petre Thomas/Imagn Images and Lance King/Getty Images)
