We’ve seen college football teams return to the College Football Playoff, lose their final regular season or conference title game, and still earn a spot in a four-team field.
This happened at Alabama in 2017 after a loss in the Iron Bowl and at Ohio State in 2022 after a loss at Michigan. It was the same season. TCU of the Big 12 became the first team to lose in a conference championship game (at Kansas State), but still go in. In all of those instances, that loss was the team’s only loss.
Now with the 12-team CFP, returning to the playoffs takes on a whole new meaning. Let’s look at Ohio State (10-2). The same goes for Miami (10-2).
What we’ve learned about the College Football Playoff, which takes place on the last full weekend of the regular season, is that we have a pretty good idea of who will be in the College Football Playoff ahead of Championship Weekend.
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College Football Playoff 2024 Predictions: What happens now for Ohio State after Michigan’s upset?
play for hello
No. 2 Ohio State’s faceplant against Michigan opened the door for No. 4 Penn State to advance to the Big Ten championship game against No. 1 Oregon. Notes: Congratulations to the Ducks (12-0), the only FBS team to make it through 12 games.
The matchup is set
Who will win the B1G title game?#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/F5josIsL2T
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) November 30, 2024
The Nittany Lions (11-1) and Ducks appear to be safely in the bracket with the winner receiving the bye. The worst thing that can happen for the Ducks is hosting a first-round game. Penn State could fall out of the hosting spot altogether depending on how the other championship games play out.
In the SEC, No. 7 Georgia (10-2) is in a similar situation with No. 3 Texas (11-1) taking a spot after defeating rival Texas A&M. It would be in the Bulldogs’ best interest not to be overwhelmed by the Longhorns, but it’s doubtful the committee would punish Georgia for making it to the championship game.
Georgia. Texas.
Title rematch. #SECChampionship pic.twitter.com/xpIiXZ65Rk
— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) December 1, 2024
Georgia, coming off a nice escape against Georgia Tech in eight OTs Friday night, doesn’t want to give the selection committee a reason to reconsider Alabama or Mississippi, which beat the Bulldogs.
Winner goes home, loser goes home
A tough Big 12 race ended somewhat routinely. Every favorite won this weekend, with No. 18 Iowa State (10-2) and No. 16 Arizona State (10-2) advancing to the conference title game. We’ll see how the second rankings come out on Tuesday. But the committee wasn’t overly kind to the Big 12. This means that only the winner will become one of the five highest ranked conference champions in the field.
Sun Demon. Cyclone.
Arlington, Texas.
12.7.24
ABC: https://t.co/O7OY7wQRck pic.twitter.com/K5FENUTn1U
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) December 1, 2024
Friday night no. 11 Boise State was ranked no. The same goes for the Mountain West, which hosts 22 UNLV. The American Athletic Conference would claim Army (10-1) if it beats Tulane in that title game, but the Cadets failed the Notre Dame test badly and played one of the weakest schedules in the country.
Highlights from UNLV’s 38-14 win over Nevada!#MWFB | #Bear level | #MWRoad to Playoffs pic.twitter.com/gUUX1K6wBB
— Mountain West (@MountainWest) December 1, 2024
An interesting race has developed between the Mountain West and Big 12 for the No. 4 seed.
Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos (11-1) have comfortably finished above the highest-ranked Big 12 team in the last two rankings. It remains to be seen on Tuesday how much the Big 12 can close the gap.
The Broncos beat Oregon State 34-18 on Friday. On Saturday, Iowa State defeated No. 24 Kansas State 29-21, and Arizona State defeated Arizona State 49-7.
UNLV is also ranked with two wins over Big 12 teams, so it seems highly unlikely that the Big 12 title game winner will beat Boise State if the Broncos win. And if the Rebels win the Blue Turf, they’ll probably have a good case to take a big leap forward.
Bid Stealer
Clemson had a strange day.
The Tigers lost 17-14 to rival South Carolina, with Cade Klubnik throwing a brutal interception in the waning moments when Clemson (9-3) was in position to tie the game on a short field goal.
South Carolina beat Clemson for their 6th straight win! pic.twitter.com/UOTr9dGWAv
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNFB) November 30, 2024
But the Tigers got the help they needed to advance to the ACC Championship Game as Syracuse came from a 21-0 halftime deficit to beat No. 6 Miami 42-38.
“Hi Dabo Swinney, congratulations. I got you, baby!” Orange coach Fran Brown said.
The Tigers were ranked no. 9 SMU (11-1). The Mustangs emerge safely on the scene no matter what happens in Charlotte, NC. Won the conference and got a bye. easy.
Clemson is unbeatable, but if they win the ACC, they should have no problem becoming one of the top five conference champions. It’s unclear whether that will be enough to earn a top-four seed and a bye.
But if Clemson sticks with SMU, they’ll be bumped by another team that currently looks like a good fit for the at-large spot.
safe
Ohio State’s recent loss to Michigan was its worst loss during The Game’s four-game skid.
Still, the second-place Buckeyes (10-2) are in a group that is safe in the bracket even if they don’t play the championship game this weekend.
No. 5 Notre Dame (11-1) ended the season on a 10-game winning streak. The Fighting Irish can’t get a bye because they’re out of conference, but they shouldn’t have any problems getting a first-round home game, which has been their goal since the end of last season.
Whether the Irish are seeded 5, 6 or 7 will depend on the conference title game.
No. 8 Tennessee (10-2) erased an early deficit to beat Vanderbilt 36-23 on Saturday, giving the Volunteers a fairly stress-free week as they look to find out whether they will go on the road or host a first-rounder. game.
For the Buckeyes, being in a position to make the playoffs again seemed to be no consolation for losing to Michigan again.
“I’m not there right now, to be honest with you,” Buckeyes coach Ryan Day said when asked about a reset for a possible playoff run. “I’m still trying to digest everything that just happened and the locker room is full of devastated guys.”
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Meet the 2024 Ohio State, the most unlucky playoff team in college football history.
It’s kinda safe
Like we said, if Clemson wins, someone is going to get bumped.
Who is that person?
How about Miami? The Hurricanes have already lost a spot in the ACC title game to the Tigers. The Canes had several big escapes early in the season, but ended the year losing two of four. On the bright side, there’s no shame in losing by one point to Georgia Tech (7-5) and Syracuse (9-3) with Haynes King.
The Canes haven’t had many wins against highly ranked teams, but their resume is looking better than expected, with Tech, Louisville (8-4), Duke (9-3) and Florida (7-5) all finishing well.
“This team has won 10 football games against really good teams,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal told reporters after the loss to Syracuse.
What about Indiana?
The committee is unlikely to turn away an 11-1 team whose only loss was at Ohio State, but other than the Buckeyes, the only team the Hoosiers have played to finish above .500 was Michigan (7-5).
Ohio State couldn’t beat the Wolverines at home, and Indiana couldn’t. So that’s something.
Both the Hoosiers and Hurricanes should be big fans of SMU.
SEC on the bubble
The committee hasn’t shown much interest in giving these three-loss SEC teams the benefit of the doubt, but the company line should be open to big changes as the group starts with a blank sheet of paper every week. .
The hot team is South Carolina (15th), which ended the season with 6 consecutive wins.
“Would you mind telling me if the committee’s job was to select the best 12 teams?” South Carolina coach Shane Beamer said:
Ironically, if Clemson wins the ACC, things get even better for South Carolina, but if Clemson wins the ACC, it adds SMU, which complicates the list of at-large teams.
Another problem South Carolina has is that it lost to the two teams immediately ahead of it, Alabama (13th) and Mississippi (14th).
“Well, I think everyone knows our schedule and I don’t know the exact statistics, but I do know that we beat four top 25 teams all year. And I don’t know how many times someone has done that,” Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer said.
This is actually the third time since LSU was eliminated. Still, it was good to get wins over Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina. What about the losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt? Both finished 6-6.
Sure, SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey might have something to say about this, but his opinion doesn’t matter.
(South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers running the ball against Clemson’s TJ Parker Photo by Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)