Democrats maintained a slim majority in the Virginia Legislature on Tuesday, winning two of three special elections in the first ballot box showdown of 2025.
The political world viewed the closely watched race as the first gauge of voter mood since President-elect Trump’s convincing victory last November that gave Republicans control of the U.S. Senate and a fragile House majority.
It’s also seen as an early indicator of high-profile gubernatorial matchups in Virginia and New Jersey later this year and battles for Congress in next year’s midterm elections.
The Associated Press predicted that the Democratic Party would win both by-elections held in Loudoun County, northern Virginia.
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In a special state Senate election, Democrat Kannan Srinivasan, now a state representative, defeated Republican Tumay Harding. The seat became vacant after Democratic state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam was elected to the Assembly in November.
And in a special state House race to fill Srinivasan’s vacancy, Democrat JJ Singh, a small business owner and former congressional aide, topped Republican Ram Venkatachalam.
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Loudoun County, located on the outskirts of the metropolitan area surrounding the nation’s capital, has been the epicenter of national debates in recent years over bathroom policies for transgender students and allowing women to play sports.
The once Republican-dominated county has become more Democratic over the past decade as Loudon’s population continues to surge. Vice President Kamala Harris easily carried the county in November’s White House election, but Trump has improved on his showing from four years ago.
The Democratic margins in Tuesday’s two Loudon County victories were close to the margins Harris won over Trump in the county in November.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally at the Salem Civic Center, Saturday, November 2, 2024, in Salem, Virginia. (AP Photo/Evan Bucci)
Tuesday’s third special election was held in the state’s central Senate district, with Republican Luther Cifers defeating Democrat Jack Trammell.
The seat became vacant when State Senator John McGuire, who received Trump’s support, narrowly defeated Congressman Bob Good, who was controversial in the Republican primary in June last year, and won the House of Representatives election in November.
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Democrats will maintain a 21-19 majority in the Virginia Senate and a 51-49 majority in the state House of Representatives during the final year of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s term.
Youngkin energized Republicans across the country three years ago. This is because the first candidate from the Democratic business community in 2021 became the first Republican candidate to win the gubernatorial election in 12 years, defeating former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe. It’s been a time-fluctuating state that has tilted toward the Democratic Party over the past decade.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin speaks before Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Salem, Virginia, Saturday, November 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
Virginia is unique in that Youngkin cannot run for re-election next year because state law prohibits governors from serving two consecutive four-year terms.
Virginia and New Jersey are the only two states in the United States that hold gubernatorial elections the year following a presidential election. Because of that, both races receive tremendous national attention, and Virginia in particular is often seen as a harbinger of the national political climate and how Americans feel about which party is in the White House.
Asked what Tuesday’s election results mean for this year’s gubernatorial race and next year’s midterms, Jack Roday, a veteran Republican strategist based in Virginia, told Fox News: “I don’t want to bore you, but it’s not a useful indicator yet. It’s too early. The November election is just around the corner. People don’t participate.”
“The ruling party usually takes a hit in these non-elections, but the data I’ve seen doesn’t show that yet,” Roday added.
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“I think it shows that people are still behind Trump,” said David Richards, a longtime Virginia political scientist at the University of Lynchburg, pointing to Cifer’s state Senate victory. “We don’t see the backlash that some people are saying is coming.”
As for Republicans who voted with a nod to Trump, Roday said, “You can’t run away from him. “He is an asset in the election.”
This special election took place one day after winter storms hit Virginia.
“The winter weather discouraged voting today,” Richards said.
“In-person voter turnout will be much lower, but early voting has been very healthy, especially for special elections,” he added.
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