Jamie Detmer is the opinions editor for POLITICO Europe.
Of course, there was no doubt that Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich would be convicted of espionage. Only 0.34% of criminal trials before Russian judges result in a not guilty verdict.
Moreover, in the case of politically motivated show trials organized by the Kremlin, the percentage was consistently zero. So the conviction was always certain. The only question was how much the judge would sentence.
And when the final stage of the case, hastily concluded on Friday, was over, there was no mercy. Gershkovich was sentenced to 16 years in a strict-regime prison, just two years less than Russian prosecutors had demanded.
But things seem to have been rushed. Why?
When he was arrested in March last year, at the age of 32, he became the first American journalist to be detained on espionage charges since Nicholas Danilov at the height of the Cold War in 1986. It was a shock not only to casual observers but also to journalists with experience reporting from Russia, including this columnist. But it also underscored how the country has changed since President Vladimir Putin launched a brutal, all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Even before the invasion, Russian authorities made it difficult for foreign journalists to work in Russia: denying or delaying visas and media accreditation, requiring local support staff to register as “foreign agents” and burdening them with onerous paperwork, and of course, there could be very blatant surveillance aimed at physical harassment and intimidation.
But the detention of an American journalist on espionage charges represents a significant expansion of hostility toward foreign media. It also shows that the Kremlin is prepared to emulate Iran’s hostage-taking strategy. Gershkovic’s verdict only adds to the shock.
As noted in the 2022 U.S. State Department report on human rights in Russia, judges are “influenced by the executive branch, the military, and other security forces, especially in high-profile or politically sensitive cases.” So it’s no wonder that this harsh ruling was ordered from above. It sends a message to Washington and puts pressure on the Kremlin to give it what it wants: a prisoner exchange with the United States.
Putin has previously said he is open to the possibility of a deal. And the most likely candidate for a swap is assassin Vadim Krasikov, currently serving a life sentence in Germany. Krasikov was convicted in Berlin in 2019 of murdering an exiled Chechen-Georgian dissident, and a German judge noted in his sentencing that the order to kill was likely given by Putin himself.
Later, in a February interview with Tucker Carlson, when asked about the American journalist, the Russian leader hinted that Moscow was willing to exchange Krasikov for Gershkovich. “We are willing to resolve it, but we are discussing certain conditions through special service channels. I believe that we can reach an agreement,” Putin said. He then made a significant reference to an individual who “for patriotism has eliminated a bandit in one of the European capitals.”
Another possible, or even additional, swap candidate would be Roman Seleznev, the son of a Russian congressman who was convicted in 2016 in Washington state of cyber-fraud against thousands of U.S. companies. Seleznev was sentenced to 27 years in prison, the longest hacking-related sentence in U.S. criminal history.
U.S. officials are currently not offering any opinions on a possible swap, which is understandable, given that keeping quiet could derail negotiations. The Kremlin has already emphasized this. Speaking to international journalists at an economic forum earlier this month, Putin warned, “Such issues are not resolved through the media.” “They like a quiet, calm, professional approach and dialogue between intelligence agencies. And, of course, they should be resolved only on the basis of reciprocity.”
But one senior U.S. diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak more freely, told POLITICO he actually took little solace in the harsh sentencing and the speedy trial process.
Gershkovich was not due to appear in court this month. His trial was actually scheduled to open in mid-August in a court in Yekaterinburg, the capital of Russia’s Ural Mountains, where he was initially detained. Moreover, the trial consisted of only two hearings, the first of which was held only last month—a rapid pace even by Russian standards of injustice. And Russian officials have previously said that any prisoner trades can only take place after a verdict has been handed down.
So now the question is whether Putin is willing to give US President Joe Biden a gift of exchange that could help him get re-elected, or whether he will wait for former President Donald Trump to re-elect him and instead reward him with a bromance.
