An image of George Orwell is circulating on social media. He is reading a book. 2024And he looks shocked or scared. Is the situation really that bad? Orwell’s 1984Could this book, first published in 1949, be a guide for today? One might smell that European integration is not dead, with Brexit and sovereign politicians like Giorgia Meloni, Viktor Orban and Robert Fico in power in Italy, Hungary and Slovakia respectively. One might add that the recent European Parliament elections have once again given the centre-left and centre-right parties a clear majority. Some might argue that populist politicians are better at conveying the hopes and fears of “ordinary people” than liberals.
But there is no denying that the narrative and practice of politics, which Orwell so clearly exposed, has changed dramatically across Europe, regardless of who is in power in each capital. Liberal norms and behaviors are in decline, while illiberal and nativist alternatives are booming.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the parties that won elections in Europe prioritized liberal values: freedom, tolerance, fairness, inclusiveness, self-restraint, and self-criticism. In addition to democracy, the rule of law and human rights were also valued. Open borders to capital, goods, services, and people were seen as opportunities, not threats.
Historical and scientific facts were not widely debated, and the mainstream media refused to broadcast outrageous views even at the expense of profit and entertainment. Cultural tolerance and religious neutrality were seen as read. Nongovernmental organizations campaigning for social, humanitarian, or ecological causes were seen as allies of the liberal order. Multilateralism, based on equality, inclusiveness, trust, and cooperation, was seen as a means to secure peace and prosperity.
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European integration was the crown jewel of the liberal project. The European Union, the embodiment of integration, was seen as an effective tool for dealing with globalization, a courageous experiment in international democracy, a clever way to stabilize its neighbors, and a means of strengthening Europe’s global position.
Perhaps we did not experience the “end of history” declared by Francis Fukuyama just before the wall fell. But the liberal consensus united the center-left and center-right parties in power across Europe. Today, liberal values are contested or even abandoned, not only by fringe parties but also by mainstream parties and their voters.
The new narrative is largely about “national interests,” secure borders, protection of “our” producers, and religious roots. Globalization, multiculturalism, multilateralism, and European integration are being denounced. Human rights and the rights of minority communities are out of fashion. Ecology, trade unionism, and even feminism are seen as radical or militant movements that should be ignored, if not tamed, by the mainstream.
The new narrative is largely about “national interests,” protecting borders, protecting “our” producers and religious roots.
“Law and order” is now the priority, not the rule of law. The debate centers on how to prepare for war rather than peace. Politicians compete for the prize of best showman, not best negotiator. The enemies of the state include judges and civil society activists once praised by progressives. Men in uniform, sometimes in housekeeping, are regaining importance.
The new narrative is translated into action. The iron fist of the state is increasingly applied, not only to people on the move, but also to NGOs that try to help them. LGBT+ communities and environmental activists are monitored by the security services and harassed in various ways. Public broadcasters who try to remain independent are being fired or pushed out.
I am not talking about China or Russia here, but about EU member states. Some are governed by liberal parties. In Poland, the government led by the self-proclaimed liberal Donald Tusk, former president of the European Commission, is discussing a new law that would give the military a “license to kill” individuals trying to cross the border from Belarus. It is not much consolation that the previous Polish government was much worse.
Is this picture too bleak and black and white? After all, the liberals of the center-left and center-right parties that have run Europe since 1989 have preached one thing and done another. Iraq was invaded in the name of “freedom,” and its zealous pursuit of economic transformation (especially in Central and Eastern Europe) has disempowered many ordinary workers.
Moreover, not all illiberal politicians today are ready to shoot at potential asylum seekers. Meloni is a good example, despite her party’s neo-fascist roots. One could argue that there has always been hidden racism in European electorates, and the main difference is that today’s xenophobia finds its voice through the “social media” created by the Internet. Some might even attribute Renaissance nationalism and religious bigotry to liberal cultural amnesia.
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Moreover, we cannot ignore the revival of imperialist Russia. The fear of war unites people and puts security above all else. The hybrid war they are waging probably explains why 67% of Poles support the current illegal counteroffensive on the borders. “Open borders” do not come without costs. Isn’t importing from countries that ignore labor and safety standards “killing” our producers? Doesn’t cheap migrant labor undermine the rights of domestic workers?
These are all legitimate claims and explanations for the new rhetoric and politics. But the change itself is undeniable. The perception of what is good and bad, what is true and what is false, what is normal and what is abnormal has changed. What was absurd and unacceptable a few years ago is now the new ‘normal.’ Which brings us back to Orwell and his demons.
Orwell’s Demons
Orwell’s future dystopia is not only about the abuse of power and the effects of torture. It is primarily, if not exclusively, about the mental journey from a consistent value system to a completely different one: the anonymous, oppressive authority of “Big Brother.” 1984 Not only do we want people to do as they are told, we want them to think that war is peace, freedom is slavery, and ignorance is strength.
We once believed that all human beings should enjoy basic human rights. Today, we claim that granting these rights to ‘immigrants’ threatens well-being, security and culture. We once believed that people should be free to practice their ethnic, sexual or religious traditions and customs. Today, the family model is prescribed, multiculturalism is declared dead and Islam is seen as a threat. We once believed that workers’ rights, the green transition and sustainable development were signs of wisdom and modernity. Today, they are portrayed as ideological slogans bordering on madness.
We once believed that to achieve anything in an interdependent world, we had to cooperate, if not integrate. Today, the UN is ignored and EU member states want to take power back from ‘Brussels’. We once believed that disarmament, diplomacy and trade could ensure peace. Today, new arms races, economic sanctions and political threats are the order of the day, all in the name of the same ‘peace’.
“Doublethink“
Of course, individuals do not necessarily hold to just one of these polar opposites. But Orwell also found a word to describe it: “doublethink,” the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind at the same time and accepting both. Doublethink often characterizes liberals who succumb to illiberal temptations under the pressure of events or the need for power.
One could argue that a petty liberal politician is still better than a convinced illiberal, but I fear that the illiberal’s strategy is, as Orwell put it, to “rip the human spirit apart and reassemble it in a new shape of his own choosing.”
This is what the new normal in European politics means.