Right-wing populist Vlaams Belang is aiming to become the largest party in the Flemish parliament in Flemish regional elections on June 9. philip mongraine and Caroline Suntzens It writes that while this could achieve the goals set after the last regional elections in 2019, serious obstacles remain for political parties to participate in government at all political levels.
This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog will also co-host a panel discussion on the LSE elections on 6 June.
After significant electoral victories in the 2019 federal and Flemish regional elections, Tom Van Grieken, Chairman of Vlaams Belang, announced the party’s “Mission 2024” (mission 2024) a campaign that aims to make Vlaams Belang the biggest political force in the next Flemish elections.
Recent opinion polls show that the Van Grieken party is well on its way to achieving that goal in this year’s Flemish local elections on June 9. Since 2019, Vlaams Belang has almost consistently polled better than N-VA, currently the largest party in the Flemish parliament.
With just days left before the election, the radical right, which advocates independence for Flanders and a sharp decline in migrants and asylum seekers, enjoys the support of more than a quarter of Flemish voters. N-VA by Bart de Wever. If the polls are accurate, this would be an unprecedented victory for the Belgian far right, drawing comparisons with the success of Geert Wilders’ PVV in the recent 2023 Dutch general election.
obstacles to governance
But Tom van Grieken’s path to power will not be easy. After all, Vlaams Belang has always been blocked from entering government at all political levels. In the 1990s, other Flemish political parties signed a formal agreement not to govern with Vlaams Belang (then called “Vlaams Blok”) due to the party’s policy positions that violated the European Convention on Human Rights.
Vlaams Blok changed its party program and name in the early 2000s, and other parties did not update this writing. sanitary border, they are still working hard to remove Vlaams Belang from power. Recently, some N-VA politicians have harassed us with the intention of breaking this issue, and they are still harassing us today. cordon. However, De Wever declared that his party would not form a coalition with Vlaams Belang and stated that he agreed with “almost nothing” with that party. It is therefore highly unlikely that the radical right will win the election and lead to effective government participation.
This does not mean that the party’s anticipated success is without consequences. The appeal of more radical options and Vlaams Belang’s strong naturalistic stance seem to have encouraged center-right and center-left parties to change their positions on a number of socio-cultural and socio-economic issues in an attempt to win back voters. For example, the Christian Democrats (CD&V) and the Socialist Party (Vooruit) have moved somewhat to the right, especially on immigration issues.
While Vlaams Belang appears to be riding high, the other parties are in a much less comfortable position. This is especially true for the Liberal Party (Open Vld) and the Green Party (Groen), which have seen a decline in voting intentions since the 2019 elections.
Recent opinion polls suggest the Greens may struggle to win parliamentary seats in some areas. On the other side of the political spectrum in Vlaams Belang, the communist PVDA is also gaining ground. If the polls are accurate and with a bit of luck, the party could almost double its 2019 vote share (5-10%). in the upcoming federal and local elections.
Result prediction
Media, Movements and Politics (M2P) A research team from the University of Antwerp surveyed citizens and local politicians in March 2023 and May 2024 about their expectations about the upcoming Flemish elections. It is reported that this is the first survey to collect election prospects from politicians. Respondents were asked to predict whether each party would gain, lose or maintain the number of seats in the Flemish parliament after the election (see Figure 1 and Figure 2). Each party was also asked to rate its likelihood of being included in the next coalition government (see Figure 3).
Figure 1: Seating changes by citizen
Note: 2023 survey (translucent bars): n=879; 2024 survey (solid bars): n=856. Question: Regardless of your political leanings, how likely do you think each of the parties below is to win more or fewer seats in the Flemish parliament after the next election compared to the previous election?
Figure 2: Seat change by politician
Note: 2023 survey (translucent bars): n=480; 2024 survey (solid bars): n=616. Question: Regardless of your political leanings, how likely do you think each of the parties below is to win more or fewer seats in the Flemish parliament after the next election compared to the previous election?
The majority of respondents, both citizens and politicians, believe that the extreme left (PVDA) and extreme right (Vlaams Belang) will increase their parliamentary seats after the June 9 elections. This belief has become slightly stronger compared to a year ago.
Conversely, respondents are much more likely to expect losses for the Liberals and Greens. Confidence in the ability of the Flemish Nationalists (N-VA) to maintain their current number of seats has also decreased. Moreover, it is noteworthy that today both citizens and politicians are much less optimistic about the expected performance of the Socialist Party Vooruit than they were a year ago. These expectations are consistent with the opinion poll trends mentioned above.
Mission accomplished?
Although respondents widely believe that Vlaams Belang will win additional seats, Figure 3 shows that voters and politicians do not rate the party’s chances of joining a future coalition very highly. Of course, these odds have increased compared to March 2023.
Figure 3: Probability of each party coming to power
Note: 2023 survey (translucent bars): n=864 (citizens), n=468 (politicians); 2024 survey (solid bars): n=840 (citizens), n=605 (politicians). Question: And for each party, how likely do you think they are to be part of the next Flemish government?
Interestingly, citizens are slightly more optimistic about the prospects for a union in Vlaams Belang than politicians. This is consistent with most studies showing public support. cordon It is low compared to most politicians. Conversely, the likelihood of the Green Party joining the next coalition, although not very likely, has decreased significantly among citizens but not among politicians.
Looking at Figure 3, sanitary border If left as is, a four-party coalition including the current partners (N-VA, CD&V, Open Vld) and the addition of socialist Vooruit seems plausible. The current N-VA-CD&V-Open Vld coalition may not secure a majority in the Flemish parliament, so a four-party coalition would be needed to thwart the ambitions of the far right and far left. This four-party coalition is similar to the composition of the Leterme (2004-2007) government and the first Peeters (2007-2009) government.
Note: This article gives the views of the author and not the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Featured image source: Imladris / Shutterstock.com
