US optimism over Israel-Hamas ceasefire put to the test with new talks in Cairo

Tel Aviv — New emergency talks begin to reach a ceasefire agreement Israel and Hamas It was expected to start in Cairo on Thursday, a follow-up to the swift announcement of last week’s Doha talks, which the White House last week projected were more grounded in reality or wishful thinking.

One of the biggest sticking points ahead of the talks between Israel and Hamas was whether Israel would agree to withdraw its troops from the so-called Philadelphia Corridor, Gaza’s southern border with Egypt.

President Biden was expected to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a power shift in a call with the Israeli leader Wednesday evening. But on Israeli TV, Netanyahu denied a Washington Post report that troops would be withdrawn from the border, saying it was “not true.”

Netanyahu has stressed for months that Israel must block and control Gaza’s southern border to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons through Egypt. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said Wednesday that Israeli forces have destroyed more than 150 Hamas tunnels in the border corridor, but Egyptian officials have denied Israeli claims that significant material support for Hamas flows through that route.

Seema Shain, Israel’s top expert on Iran and a former member of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, told CBS News that if ceasefire talks fail, “it won’t be long before we see a military conflict, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah,” and that Israel will likely involve the United States.

Washington is Israel’s most important supporter, and as of last year, the U.S. had more than 30,000 troops stationed throughout the Middle East, according to the Pentagon. The U.S. military presence in the region has increased significantly since Hamas launched a terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, triggering the ongoing war in Gaza.

Shine is Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” includes proxy groups. Hezbollah in LebanonHamas in Gaza, The Houthis of Yemen And then there are the numerous militias in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria, which “if we add them all together” would amount to “hundreds of thousands” of fighters.

While many Americans view Iran as Israel’s greatest security threat, and Israeli officials often refer to the Islamic Republic in that term, Shine says Iran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon are the most immediate threat.

“Hezbollah is close to our border. It’s not Iran, which is 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) from Israel. It’s completely different. The military estimates that Hezbollah has about 150,000 rockets and missiles. They have precision missiles. This could be a devastating attack on Israel. There’s no doubt about it.”

A press release from the U.S. Embassy in Israel on Wednesday about the Biden-Netanyahu call highlighted the increased U.S. military presence in the region, particularly with more F-18 and F-22 fighter jets, more Navy destroyers, submarines armed with Patriot missiles, and the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group carrying F-35 fighter jets. Arrived on Wednesday All the troops from the Pacific show Washington is ready to defend Israel.

The talks in Cairo are expected to last until the weekend. Israel and Hamas have accused each other of blocking negotiations for months. The United States said earlier this week that Israel had accepted a so-called bridging proposal to bridge the gap between the two sides’ demands, but that there were some changes.

Hamas says it wants to implement the July 2 proposal backed by the United States and the United Nations. The militant group accuses Israel of changing the terms of that proposal and accuses the United States of accepting the changes because it is biased toward Israel.

The Hamas-run Gaza Strip’s Health Ministry said more than 40,200 people had been killed in the Israeli war, but did not distinguish between combatants and civilians. The figure included 42 deaths and 163 injuries recorded in the past 24 hours, the ministry said Thursday.

Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, killing about 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostage, about 80 of whom are believed to still be alive in the Gaza Strip.

Innocentio Frame

Ramy Inocencio is a CBS News foreign correspondent based in London, covering Europe and the Middle East. He joined the network in 2019 as CBS News Asia Correspondent, based in Beijing and covering the Asia Pacific region, bringing with him 20 years of experience working and traveling between Asia and the United States.