Who will win?
I get asked that question a lot and I often ask myself the same question. I’ve spent an embarrassing amount of time reviewing poll cross-tabulations.
I hate making predictions. Mainly because I despise being wrong. But evidence is mounting that Donald Trump will return to the White House.
Before that, I want to tell you about this video. This is a fun collection of hyperbole: “Trump can’t win!” Here’s a side-by-side look at his 2016 predictions and his victory. It’s also a stark warning to overconfident Republicans. Don’t start counting your chickens yet. In 2016, I could have written an almost identical column extolling Hillary’s virtues.
That means…
Now the polls support Trump.
A fair look at the polls shows that if the election were held today, Trump would win.
Nationally, Harris leads Trump by a narrow 0.9% margin in the RCP national polling average. This is in contrast to eight years ago when Clinton led Trump by 6.1%, and four years ago when Biden led by 7.9%.
However, the Electoral College system is tilted in Trump’s favor. Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1% to Clinton and 4.5% to Biden. Most forecasters now believe Harris needs at least a 3% lead nationally to win the election.
How do we find Trump in the state polls? It’s very tight, but he’s currently leading in all of the top seven battleground states. Three of those leads are less than 1% and all are within the margin of error, but Trump has slowly improved over Kamala over the past month. If he actually wins each state, he would have between 312 and 226 electoral votes.
Big warning.Should we trust these polls? They missed the target by miles in 2016, missed it by even more in 2020, and consistently undercut Trump. They recovered somewhat in 2022, but we all remember the much-hyped “Red Wave” turning into a ripple.
Pollsters claim they made the changes in a desperate attempt to save their reputations. But is that really the case? Then we will be the nail-biters. If they’re wrong, like they were in the last two Trump elections… He cruises to a comfortable victory. Both scenarios are entirely plausible.
RELATED: Singer Lizzo Accidentally Admits The Entire Country Will Be Detroit If Kamala Harris Wins
Other tea leaves
election forecasterRight now, they favor Trump, albeit by a very narrow margin. He leads both Nate Silver’s election model and 538’s projections.
“Blue Wall” Senate Campaign. What experts call Kamala’s “blue wall” doesn’t look very blue, and current polls show the Democratic-led U.S. Senate campaign (three Democratic incumbents and one open seat) all within 2 points, well within the margin of error. It happened. More importantly, these same Democrats are now mentioning Donald Trump by name in TV ads, touting their willingness to work with him on popular issues. That’s a red flag for the Democratic Party.
betting market. Essentially, it means a lot for Trump, with 60% betting Trump will win and 38% predicting Kamala. Nonetheless, these bettors are not geniuses and largely reflect public opinion. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was favored in those markets even after some polling places were already closed.
registered profit. Republicans have made major inroads into voter registration in battleground states. Let’s take Pennsylvania, the starting point for this year’s election map, as an example. In 2020, Democrats boasted a 686,000 voter registration advantage. now? That shrank to 298,000, the smallest Democratic advantage in 26 years of available data.
Does this signal a mass exodus to the Republican Party? Or are longtime Republican-leaning Democrats finally making it official? It’s impossible to say for sure, but this is undeniably good news in a state that Trump won by just 44,000 votes in 2016 and lost by 81,000 in 2020.
Finally, early voting
In July, I wrote about “A Lesson Team Trump Will Never Forget,” outlining their outrageously foolish decision to thwart early voting by Republicans. They turned themselves around this year and it paid off.
It’s still early days, but more Republicans are requesting absentee ballots and participating in early voting. In 2020, Democrats entered Election Day with a comfortable lead in battleground states. So far, that cushion has not materialized.
Polls, predictions and pundits aside, one thing is clear: It used to be a losing bet to leave Trump out. It feels like 2016 all over again.
Syndicated with permission from Ken LaCorte
Ken LaCorte writes about censorship, media malfeasance, uncomfortable questions, and honest insights for people who wonder how the world really works. Follow Ken on Substack
Post-Trump triumphant return? It first appeared on The Political Insider.
