Former U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer speaks during an event with former U.S. President Donald Trump (not pictured) at the Precision Components Group in York, Pennsylvania, Monday, Aug. 19, 2024.
Graham Sloan | Bloomberg | getty images
Donald Trump’s longtime trade adviser appears to be telling Wall Street money managers that if the Republican presidential candidate is re-elected, he could quickly begin implementing sweeping tariff proposals after taking office, according to a policy analyst at Piper Sandler.
“I heard from many clients that former U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer met with investor groups and said that President Trump could announce 60% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs across the board immediately after taking office,” the investment bank said. ‘s research analysts wrote in a note on Friday.
Asked about the memo, Trump campaign spokeswoman Caroline Levitt did not deny that Lighthizer was meeting with investors. But she warned that “no policy should be considered official unless it comes directly from President Trump.”
It was not immediately clear which group had spoken to Lighthizer, and analyst Piper Sandler did not respond to CNBC’s request for more details. But the company’s clients are likely to be large asset management firms that pay for stock and economic research.
According to Inside US Trade, Lighthizer is advising Trump’s presidential campaign on economic issues.
Lighthizer, who played a key role in crafting and enacting Trump’s first trade policy, is also considered a top contender for several senior positions in Trump’s cabinet, including secretary of commerce and secretary of the treasury.
He currently serves as chair of the Center for American Trade at the America First Policy Institute, a Trump-aligned Washington think tank. An AFPI spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. Lighthizer is also a director of Trump Media, a publicly traded social media company majority owned by the former president.
Both Lighthizer’s reported conversations and his apparent influence with Trump highlight how central tariffs impact the carrying out of Trump’s overall economic vision.
Numerous economists and tax experts have warned that Trump’s tariff plans will raise prices, lower U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and hurt employment in key industries.
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has repeatedly cited an analysis by progressive groups that found Trump’s tariffs could amount to nearly $4,000 in tax increases for the average American household.
The Trump campaign emphasized to CNBC that Trump’s tariff idea should be considered in concert with his broader plan, which includes reducing regulations, stepping up U.S. oil drilling and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants.
Republican National Committee spokeswoman Anna Kelly also pointed out that Harris and President Joe Biden have maintained and in some cases increased many of the tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first term.
“Harris has always opposed tariffs because she can’t be trusted to put workers first,” Kelly said. “President Trump will put American jobs back together by lowering taxes, deregulation and unshackling American energy and curbing inflation.” “We will keep it low and raise real wages,” he said. He told CNBC in a statement.
‘Flooding the area’
Former Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, Michigan, on October 10, 2024.
Bill Pulliano | getty images
Piper Sandler analysts relayed the information to Lighthizer in a note Friday, warning investors to take Trump’s promise to raise tariffs to historic levels seriously.
“We expect tariffs to be imposed faster in Trump’s second term than in his first,” they wrote.
President Trump said, “I have the will and the means to fulfill my promise to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.”
Analysts wrote that it would not be surprising if President Trump attempted to enact a broad 10% tariff by force. Although those efforts are likely to become entangled in a court battle over his authority.
That would allow President Trump to “flood the region” with more tariffs, they wrote.
These reduced tariffs could be focused on countries with large trade deficits with the United States or on specific industries, such as the auto industry, where President Trump has pledged to protect American companies.
“There is little doubt that President Trump will use the threat of tariff increases as leverage to win concessions on unrelated issues,” the analysts added.
Deterrent or cash cow?
Former U.S. President Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate, speaks at a campaign rally at Riverfront Sports in Scranton, Pennsylvania, on October 9, 2024.
Michael M. Santiago | getty images
Trump’s love of tariffs is well documented. He presented it on the campaign trail as a panacea, the key to prosperity and a master tool for reshaping the American economy from a protectionist framework.
“Tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented,” the former president said at a September town hall in Warren, Michigan.
He argues that his tariff plan would free up enough money to pay for a series of large tax cuts without requiring compromises or cuts to costly government programs like Social Security and Medicare.
At the same time, Trump has pledged to use tariffs as a tool to curb unwanted foreign competition and secure geopolitical influence over other countries.
President Trump has called for a universal basic tariff of 10% on foreign imports, and has also raised the possibility of expanding the tariff to 20%.
He also called for a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and suggested he would push for higher tariffs in certain circumstances.
For example, in a speech at the Detroit Economic Club on Thursday, Trump complained that China was building factories in Mexico to produce cars for sale in the United States.
“I will impose whatever tariffs are necessary to stop those efforts,” Trump said.
He said, “100%, 200%… 1,000%.” “They’re not going to use the factories they’re building to sell cars in the United States.”
He also proposed using tariffs as part of a carrot-and-stick approach to stimulate domestic manufacturing.
“If we don’t make our products here, we’re going to have to pay taxes or duties when we ship them to the United States,” he said in a campaign speech in Michigan in late September. “And we will bring hundreds of billions of dollars into the treasury and use that money for the benefit of American citizens.”
At a meeting with Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill in June, Trump even floated the idea of abolishing the federal income tax entirely and replacing it with tariff revenue.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics blasted the idea, saying “it is literally impossible for tariffs to completely replace income taxes” and warning that such a plan would lead to economic chaos.
Meanwhile, Trump insists his tariffs will not worsen already high consumer prices and blames Biden and Harris for causing them.
“They’re not going to have higher prices,” Trump said during the Sept. 10 presidential debate. “The ones who will have higher prices are China and all the countries that have been deceiving us for years.”