Famous wrestler Sting laid out the perfect rule for future predictions in 1996 when he described his personality’s transformation from a straight-faced baby face to a darker, more enigmatic personality. Stinger said: “The only thing certain about Sting is that nothing is certain.”
This would also be true for sports media. There are some trends that seem obvious (increasing investment in women’s sports media, consolidation and layoffs of legacy media, Netflix becoming a bigger sports player, more media leaning into sports betting revenue), but who knows? Still, we offer some guesses for 2025.
1. Tom Brady will quit broadcasting before the start of the 2025 NFL season.
I’ve previously said I’d bet big money that Brady won’t end his 10-year, $375 million contract with Fox, given his various business interests outside of broadcasting, including ownership. That’s true. The safer prediction is that Brady leaves his Fox contract in three or four years. But I’d be bold to say that Brady decided to get more involved with the Las Vegas Raiders in the offseason and do everything with NFL ownership and his production company until the start of next NFL season.
2. WNBA viewership will increase in 2025
This is not a moment for women’s sports. It’s been a movement for a while. Game 5 of the WNBA Finals – an overtime thriller won by the New York Liberty 67-62 – averaged 2.15 million viewers, making it the most-watched WNBA Finals game in 25 years. The average number of viewers for the final was 1.6 million, a 115% increase from last season. It capped off a fantastic year for league viewership. Here we absolutely state that the catalyst for the ratings explosion was interest in Caitlin Clark. In total, there were 32 WNBA TV windows among our media partners that topped 1 million viewers during the 2024 season, including the WNBA Draft. This broke the previous record of 15.
Starting with the 2026 season, we’ll see new partners NBC and Amazon Prime Video as part of a long-term TV rights deal, and we should expect them to invest significant marketing dollars. Under the new agreement, Disney, NBC and Amazon will host more than 125 regular season and playoff games nationwide each season, including at least 25 regular season games on Disney platforms, 50 regular season games and 30 regular season games on NBCUniversal platforms. will be distributed. Seasonal games on Amazon Prime Video. The league will also be influenced by a new franchise (Golden State Valkyries) and its star players will get more exposure in the offseason thanks to Unrivaled, a new 3-on-3 women’s basketball league starting in January 2025.
Clark’s star will continue to rise, and if you think malicious actors knocking her for culture war points will affect the ratings, I’d like to mention those who predicted that NFL ratings were doomed for good. For the WNBA, the arrow points upward.
3. ESPN flagship will be an instant hit
ESPN’s direct-to-consumer streaming service, codenamed “Flagship,” will give consumers access to the entire ESPN network without a traditional pay TV subscription. This includes the entire programming lineup on ESPN+ and what currently airs on linear ESPN. It also integrates with ESPN Fantasy and ESPN Bet. According to the report, the starting price will be between $25 and $30 per month, which they believe will attract consumers in the first place. We expect initial subscriber numbers to exceed expectations, especially considering the recent significant growth of YouTube TV.
MoffettNathanson, a research firm that provides media, communications and technology trends to institutional investors, said this month it expects to have the service up and running after an initial investment of $75 million in fiscal 2025, in time for the start of the NFL season. (launching at the end of fiscal year), we expect to have an initial 1 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026, driving subscription revenue to just over $1 million. $200 million, $20 million in advertising revenue.” I expect that number to be higher by FY 2026.
4. Kevin Harlan will be calling NBA games for Amazon Prime Video.
Ian Eagle has signed on to be one of Amazon’s leading broadcasters and we expect Harlan to join him. The 1-2 game calling combination featuring Eagle and Harlan will give the streamer tremendous instant credibility in the live gaming space.
5. ESPN plans to opt out of its current MLB contract after the 2025 season.
This is probably closer to a layup prediction. MoffettNathanson said the opt-out could save Disney/ESPN up to $600 million, but he expects most to restructure their contracts. Will ESPN get local games for its flagship?
6. UFC splits between ESPN and Netflix
I don’t have any inside information. It’s just speculation that UFC will eventually mirror WWE and reach Disney and Netflix as a product. So Netflix is starting to take a big interest in sports rights.
UFC’s Dana White will be seeking a major media deal in 2025, and according to Richard Deitsch’s predictions, he will land it. (Steve Marcus/Getty Images)
7. ESPN will finally have a daily studio show dedicated to women’s basketball during the WNBA season.
With an exciting cast of All-Stars from A’ja Wilson to Kelsey Plum and an appetite for storylines on and off the court, Clark has an exceptional audience assembled. If ESPN wants credit for building women’s basketball in America, as it always has, that’s off the table considering the multiple media outlets it owns. If this doesn’t exist next year the network will have to be crushed for it.
8. The Pac-12 will secure at least one name-brand media company for media rights.
In November, the Pac-12 announced that the Octagon would serve as the body of record to guide the conference in the media rights landscape. This will send a signal that someone with a bit more weight is going to bite and take the fliers that 2024 will be WBD sports defined by losing rights to the NBA on TNT. For the 2026-27 season, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga, San Diego State and Utah State join Oregon and Washington State. The league needs one more football school to be recognized as a conference within the FBS division.
9. ESPN leases active players or coaches for the NBA Finals.
It’s been clear for some time that ESPN executives don’t want a two-person booth for their coverage of the NBA Finals. It’s also clear that the network wants notable names (like Milwaukee Bucks coach Doc Rivers) to sell on billboards.
Who is that person? My colleague Andrew Marchand postulated in this article from June that ESPN would have to already be courting players like LeBron James and Steph Curry if it were to consider broadcasting. It’s an interesting long-term play. I think it’s very likely that by 2025 we’ll have someone like Chris Paul as a guest game analyst for the Finals. Longtime NBA coach Monty Williams would also be an interesting one-off figure.
(Top photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
