The automated system sends data to Chris Gilligan, who heads the modeling department at Wheat DEWAS at the University of Cambridge. With his team, he works with the UK Met Office and uses supercomputers to model how mold spores in a particular place might spread under certain weather conditions, and what the risk is for mold spores to land, germinate, and infect other areas. The team used previous models, including work on the ash plume from the eruption of Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull, which wreaked havoc in Europe in 2010.
A daily downloadable bulletin is posted online with a 7-day weather forecast. Additional warnings or advisories may also be sent. Information is then disseminated from government or state authorities to farmers. For example, in Ethiopia, immediate risks are communicated to farmers via SMS text messages. Crucially, if a problem is likely, alerts give you time to react. “We effectively have a three-week grace period,” says Gilligan. This means growers can know the risk up to a week in advance so they can take action when spores land and cause infection.
Currently, the project is focused on eight countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia in Africa and Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan in Asia. However, researchers hope to secure additional funding to carry out the project beyond 2026 and expand it in a variety of ways, ideally including adding more countries.
Gilligan said the technology could potentially be transferred to other wheat diseases and other crops affected by weather-borne pathogens, such as rice.
Dagmar Hanold, a plant pathologist at the University of Adelaide who was not involved in the project, describes it as “an important piece of work for global agriculture”.
“Grains, including wheat, are essential commodities for people and animals around the world,” says Hanold. Although programs have been established to breed more pathogen-resistant crops, new pathogen strains frequently emerge. And if they combine and swap genes, they could become “more aggressive,” she warns.
Shaoni Bhattacharya is a freelance writer and editor based in London.
