Bulgaria held its most recent parliamentary elections on October 27. This is the seventh parliamentary election held since 2021. Emilia Zankina, Lin Yuxiang and tim hortons Despite promises by Bulgarian parties to end the political deadlock, there is little chance the vote will result in a stable government, they wrote.
Some elections are change elections, while others only reinforce the status quo. On October 27, Bulgarian voters went to the polls in the parliamentary elections for the seventh time since 2021. However, the results showed that there was little chance of forming a stable and durable government, let alone resolving the protracted political crisis.
While much media coverage over the past few weeks has focused on the recent elections in Georgia and Moldova, the political turmoil in Bulgaria highlights key lessons about electoral dynamics in Europe. This is related not only to Russian influence, but also to salient issues such as anti-corruption appeals, personal clashes and the difficulty of forming a governing coalition.
Fragmentation, liquidity and polarization
Ahead of the election, Bulgarian political parties pledged to end political deadlock, boost economic recovery and fight corruption. They also took noticeably different positions on the war in Ukraine. These are all issues that the public considers important. Despite this, political parties were unable to mobilize voters, and voter turnout was just under 39%. Although slightly higher than in the last June election (34.4%), it highlights the deep disillusionment and increased apathy that currently exists among Bulgarian citizens.
In all but two of the last 11 Bulgarian elections, the largest vote share was won by GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria), led by three-term Prime Minister Boyko Borissov. Working with the Union of Democratic Forces, GERB won 26.4% of the vote. That’s almost twice as many votes as any other party. The secret to GERB’s success lay in a combination of a promise to provide security and stability, a narrative focused on new infrastructure projects, Borisov’s charisma, and a vibrant network of the party’s national branches.
But GERB’s appeal has its limits. Corruption charges against Borissov’s party set a ceiling on GERB’s level of support. It has also facilitated the emergence of new political parties based on anti-corruption platforms, as in other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Bulgaria has the kind of people who keep changing things. A flood of new parties, including Moral, Unity and Honor (MECh), have crowded the political scene and complicated the task of forming a government.
Although Bulgaria appeared to have found a solution in 2023, the deal between GERB and PP (together with Democratic Bulgaria as PP-DB) drew criticism for agreeing to replace the prime minister after nine months in office. The experience left a rift between GERB and PP-DB, which won 14.2% of the vote in the October 27 elections.
GERB’s ability to form stable coalitions with other parties has also been hampered by yet another notable recent dividing line between its pro-EU and pro-Russian positions. The pro-European stance of GERB and PP-DB stands in stark contrast to the powerful pro-Russian lobby represented by the mainstream center-left Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the radical right-wing Revival Party (total 20% of the vote). Revival’s success, like events in Moldova and Georgia, highlights how elections in the region have become a battleground for Russian influence.
Even the ‘eternal party’ split up.
The fact that there are more than eight political parties in the new parliament is also a product of divisions in the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS). This party represents Bulgaria’s ethnic Turks and advocates a liberal and strongly pro-European stance. For three decades this was one of the enduring features of Bulgarian politics, but an acrimonious leadership dispute tore the party apart.
DPS has been controlled in recent years by media mogul Delyan Peevski. Peevski brought some benefits (mainly money) to DPS, despite being sanctioned under the U.S. Magnitsky Act on corruption charges. But Shady’s dealings with other political parties, his support for measures in the judicial and media sectors seen as eroding democracy, and his exclusion of DPS founder Ahmed Dogan have sparked discontent. This led to a legal battle over who had the right to lead the party. In the end, two political parties were registered for the elections: DPS-New Beginning, led by Peevski, and the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS).
Peevski’s faction, with its slogan “Time for a new beginning”, won 11.5% of the vote, while APS received 7.5%. Surprisingly, only a quarter of Turkish votes supported Peevski, while 52% of Turks supported Dogan’s APS and its main campaign slogan: “Together to defend democracy and the country.”
Nonetheless, Peevski garnered many votes from Bulgaria’s Romani community, underscoring why the fight for ethnic votes is likely to be an important topic in Bulgarian politics in the future. More immediately, given their total of 49 seats, Peevski and Dogan could end up playing a key role in supporting (or blocking) a parliamentary majority.
Difficulties in forming a majority
With eight parties in parliament, there are theoretically many paths to a majority, but many options have already been ruled out. For example, several parties across the political spectrum have said they will not cooperate with Peevski. PP-DB even sanitary border. Removing Peevski’s 30 seats (out of 240 in parliament) from the equation makes it much more difficult to reach the magic number of 121 seats.
GERB has signaled its willingness to negotiate with all parties in parliament except Revival, but potential coalition parties appear less enthusiastic. Most paths to a majority require another deal between GERB and PP-DB, but the experience of previous coalition governments suggests that bickering and insult trading between these parties will only increase the risks.
PP-DB’s conditions for a coalition with GERB include radical anti-corruption reforms and an “equally distant” prime minister (an expert, not a politician, and certainly not Borisov himself). But even if that deal is struck, combining the 106 seats would still require at least one more member and at least one party to break its promises, which is not a recipe for longevity.
Bulgaria can get the stable and durable government that many citizens and investors want, but this will require a level of compromise, negotiation and political skill far superior to anything seen in recent Bulgarian political history. The smart money is on the eighth election next year.
Trends Across Europe
Although Bulgaria’s situation appears unique, the trend emphasizing political deadlock extends across Europe. The rise of the radical right and anti-establishment votes have dominated national elections across Europe in recent years, as well as the recent European Parliament elections.
In Bulgaria, support for the radical right increased from the traditional 10-12% to over 20% in this election. In addition to growing nationalism, this growth further expands Russia’s influence on politics at the domestic and European levels. That’s because many radical right parties across Europe are known for their sympathy for Putin’s regime.
The combination of division, polarization and nationalism poses a real threat to democratic governance. Hungary is the clearest example of such dynamics, but many other countries, including Bulgaria, have experienced varying degrees of democratic decline.
Against the backdrop of two wars on the EU’s borders and a US presidential election with likely major implications for geopolitics, democratic decline and instability in EU member states further undermine Europe’s unity and its ability to act on the global stage. .
Note: This article gives the views of the author and not the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union
