morning.
As many of you have probably heard by now, yesterday we did some spending and income forecasts for Arsecast Extra. This is now a tradition each transfer window and it’s fair to say we’re usually off target, at least in terms of revenue. I think it’s a little easier to predict your spending.
I’ll put mine here for discussion on a quiet day. If you want to hear what we’re both saying wrong, listen to the podcast here or at your usual podcast location. So this is what I have. In no particular order.
Arsenal transfer expected this summer
Nuno Tavares – £4m
Albert Sambi Lokonga – £10m
Eddie Nketiah – £15m
Emile Smith Rowe – £20m
Race Nelson – £5m
Kieran Tierney – £8m
Oleksandr Zinchenko – £20m
I think one of the things that makes it difficult to predict how much revenue we’ll get from a particular player is the fact that we don’t have a track record of selling well. There’s the occasional Alex Iwobi or Joe Willock, but when you look at the deal we made to sell Bernd Leno, it’s hard to understand how an international goalkeeper in his prime got paid so little.
One thing that must be acknowledged is that selling unwanted players to improve/upgrade a very good team is a lot different than it was a few years ago. Not being able to get into a poor Arsenal team or a developing team is not the same as not being able to get into a team that has won more Premier League games than any other team in the club’s history. I don’t know if a rising tide will lift all boats, but it will likely have an impact on the market value of some of the players listed above. And once you change your perception of what you can generate through sales, if it makes sense, that change will stick.
Nonetheless, there are various factors that determine the price. For example, Smith Rowe is priced at £20m, which is around 50% less than what he would have received if we had decided to sell him two years ago. Of course, why did they decide that at the time? He looked like a player for the future. Now that he’s been sidelined by injury for two years and unable to compete, his price on the market has dropped significantly.
In Eddie’s case, I don’t think his ability to work for at least 50% of Premier League clubs is an issue, but his wages from the new contract he signed last year are. This means that clubs may be interested, but the overall investment they will have to make will have to take salaries into account, meaning they may have to accept less for a player whose time at the club appears to have come to a natural end. do.
Does Reiss Nelson’s £5m sound low to anyone? That may be the case when you look at some of the prices paid, but when you realize he turns 25 this year, he has started one Premier League game in four seasons and, like Eddie, it seems roughly correct that his wages are also an issue. to me. Of course I want more, but I don’t think I can get it. His career has stalled and someone needs to take a punt on him.
There are also players I would like to sell, but I don’t know if that will happen. Thomas Partey tops that list, but for now he may decide to stay for the final year of his contract and the Aaron Ramsdale situation is another complicated situation. He signed a new contract last May, making him one of the highest-paid goalkeepers in the Premier League, and between his value and wages at Arsenal, he is out of reach for most clubs. As a result, he will end up on loan somewhere. Next season.
Thanks to listener Ally Wood who said we could fetch reasonable money for some of the youth players out on loan. Charlie Patino, Mika Biereth and Brooke Norton-Cuffy are the three he mentioned, while most other departing players at that level are out of contract. My total earnings (excluding youth players) were £82m. It may not be huge, but between the revenue itself and the impact on wages, it would certainly give the club plenty of room to maneuver.
When we made our spending forecasts, James and I both completely forgot about our promise to spend £27 million on David Raya. So perhaps that goes some way to explaining Mikel Arteta’s comments last week that we need to get more from the players we already have. For example, the ongoing debate over who will be the back-up or take the burden off Bukayo Saka, I think has been resolved by Gabriel Jesus. Of course, conformity is acceptable. I think the team has evolved beyond the number 9 player, but as a wide player he’s way ahead of Reiss Nelson, who was basically that player last season.
Anyway, it’s just speculation at this point, but I think it’s an important summer from an extrovert’s perspective. If we can challenge for the title, if we can do as well as we did last season and still not sell for half price, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be a little worried. Especially because the revenue you generate affects how much you can spend.
Of course, your thoughts on Asses of the Day are very welcome. If you haven’t had a chance to listen yet, there’s a pod below.
