all
Set small text size
all
Set default text size
all
Set large font size
Ask rugby fans around the world which stadium is the hardest to beat and there’s probably only one answer: Eden Park in New Zealand. The All Blacks haven’t lost there since 1994. The Wallabies? They haven’t tasted glory there against New Zealand since 1986. But if Australia want to break their larynx this year, there’s no better training ground than this week’s Test match.
This week they didn’t just win, they won three: a win at AAMI Park, a win for their second Test match of the year and back-to-back Test wins.
Let’s start with the latter, because I can already hear the rugby fanboys shouting “last week’s Test win”. ~was “Second successive title for the Wallabies!”.
Hunter Paisami. (Photo: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Australia’s most recent Test match before last Saturday was Eddie Jones’ last under the helm, with the Wallabies coming off an unconvincing win over Portugal in the 2023 World Cup. Different manager, different year, (mostly) different players.
The last time Australia won back-to-back Tests in a calendar year was in 2021, when they won five straight against South Africa, Argentina and Japan with a star-studded lineup that included Kwadé Cooper and Samu Kerevi. Even in that golden era, that was the exception. Since 2018, there has been only one instance of back-to-back wins against Tier 1 nations. The Wallabies will need consistent performances until September if they are to have any hope of winning the Bledisloe Cup this year.
When was the last time the Wallabies won the second Test of the year? You’d have to go all the way back to 2015.
Later that year, Australia made a dream run at the Rugby World Cup in England. Historically, whenever the Wallabies have won the second Test of the year, their win percentage for that calendar year has been at least 50%. The only exceptions are 2014 (when there was a coaching change in the middle) and 2005 (Eddie Jones).
The second Test could act as the gateway to a strong year, but the Wallabies haven’t been through it for 10 years.
The Wallabies’ last hurdle to overcome is a win in Melbourne, where they haven’t won since against Fiji in 2017.
AAMI Park is also a significant obstacle as it offers conditions most similar to those in New Zealand and the Northern Hemisphere. With light rain expected and cold conditions (9 degrees Celsius expected), the soft track will be like Wales’ home stadium, as it was for England in 2016, France in 2021 and New Zealand in 2023.
The only win in Fiji? It was an afternoon game played in the sun.
The good news for the Wallabies is that they come into this game having broken a curse last week. It was their first win against a Tier 1 nation in Sydney since the opening game of Bledisloe in 2015. The damp pitch and cold weather in Sydney will give them confidence this week. Conditions are expected to be the same this week.
The Wallabies’ poor performance over the past two decades has resulted in a number of unwanted records.
To win the Bledisloe Cup later this year they need to win in New Zealand for the first time since 2001 and this week will be the best indicator of whether the Wallabies are in the mood to break the curse.
