Joe Schmidt may have two more wins on the board than Eddie Jones had in his first nine Tests in charge, but the Wallabies are still miles away from where they need to be to re-establish themselves as a global threat.
In fact, with Carter Gordon gone, the Wallabies may have fallen back from where they were in 2023.
The public would like to think that progress has been made, but the level of satisfaction comes more from the silence off the field than from the perceived noise on the ground.
In fact, the best 40 minutes on the field by the Wallabies in the last two years remains when Jones gave the Wallabies a 17-3 lead over the All Blacks at half-time in Dunedin last year. Of course, it wasn’t enough for Richie Mo’unga to thrash the Wallabies 23-20, signaling the end of Quade Cooper’s international career.
That afternoon, Pone Fa’amausili pounded the line in the absence of Taniela Tupou and Allan Alaalatoa, Tom Hooper made contact, Rob Valetini slammed the door, Tate McDermott probed the line and Gordon ran.
Nothing in 2024 will match the 40 minutes the Wallabies delivered to southern New Zealand that afternoon. There, they gained the contact zone and generated high lux speeds, sending fear into the world.
The Wallabies’ best performance over the past two years remains under coach Eddie Jones against the All Blacks at Dunedin’s Forsyth Barr Stadium on August 5, 2023. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
Few will remember, but the Wallabies’ first 40 game against France in Paris ahead of the World Cup saw Jones’ scrum win Fabien Galthie and wingers Mark Nawakanitawase and Suliasi Vunivalu dominate the air. I was able to get a glimpse of how a world-class team is being created. .
Ultimately, the absences of Alaalatoa, Tupou and Will Skelton were too much of a blow at the World Cup, and Jones’ horribly put together coaching team in particular failed to provide a boost to the remaining individuals.
Jones’ decision to take a rugby league-like approach to the game, where he doesn’t hold on to the ball for long periods of time, was also revealing.
The Wallabies, who continue to rebuild under Schmidt, have provided quality 10 minutes here and there, as have Santa Fe and Wellington. In both cases it ended with a difference of 40 and 20 points.
Gradual improvements will occur. The quality of Schmidt’s coaching team, which includes New Zealand players, will ensure this. But it won’t happen overnight.
A clear difference in style has emerged under Schmidt, with the emphasis on strike play over set-piece play being a clear area of ​​improvement in the nine Tests to date in 2024.
But what 2024 reveals is that failing to retain Gordon will be a decision that will haunt Rugby Australia for years to come.
The decision to empower him rather than arm him and fight to keep him in code will be remembered worse than losing Samu Kerevi, Sean McMahon and Will Skelton to Australian rugby.
Gordon had every reason to fail in 2024. He was at the epicenter of the Wallabies’ World Cup disappointment, watched Cooper get speared and struggled to handle the pressure like his idol in 2011, and was asked to lead the Rebels in 2024. Despite the Super Rugby club being in disgrace all season before being axed just before the final – and despite a definite crisis of confidence from the kick tee – they played brilliantly.
Carter Gordon’s exit will haunt Rugby Australia for years. (Photo by Peter Meecham/Getty Images)
One can only wonder how Gordon was able to navigate it for the Wallabies and Rebels without the added pressure of being asked to score off the tee as an inexperienced kicker. It seemed like they would definitely release Manie Libbok last weekend without any additional liability.
It was an abject failure of talent discovery by Schmidt and Rugby Australia’s administrators to fail to recognize the pressure on the 23-year-old’s shoulders and take it into account when assessing his value this year.
Gordon’s ability to attack the line, deliver Stephen Larkham-like passes and throw himself into the game defensively has put him on the path to wearing the number 10 jersey for the foreseeable future. Even if the young fly-half doesn’t immediately deliver on the international stage, that’s what Jones sees in him.
Gordon’s departure leaves Schmidt with little alternative but to stick with Noah Lolesio for the Spring Tour.
Entering his fifth year as an international fly-half, Lolesio is yet to convince anyone that he is the short- or long-term answer for the Wallabies.
The 24-year-old, who now has 25 Tests to play, will need to be an even stronger presence and dominate the game. The 25 steps he had stashed in his pocket late in the second Test in Wellington revealed a man who has yet to learn how to lead a team and pull the trigger when needed.
The Wallabies need more Noah Lolesio. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Schmidt gave Lolesio every chance to feel comfortable on the international stage with a long run in the uniform. But has enough progress been made in the five years he has spent on the world stage?
Nonetheless, with just four more Tests to be played before next year’s Lions series, Lolesio’s uniform looks set to be lost. Especially considering that Schmidt appears to have passed over James O’Connor, Cooper, Bernard Foley and even Jack Debreczeni.
Uncapped Tane Edmed is the only dominant striker in Australian rugby who can usurp Lolesio from the clouds as Ben Donaldson and Tom Lynagh are not physically ready.
Lolesio is not getting enough help from his fellow inside backs with Hunter Paisami struggling for consistency in his return to the Bledisloe series with an MCL injury.
The punchy midfielder has enjoyed an outstanding Super Rugby season for the Reds, but his inability to translate his strong domestic form onto the international stage suggests the necessary step-up will be difficult.
Currently it is a Samu Kerevi sized hole and the Wallabies once again have few alternatives.
Damien McKenzie, Samu Kerevi and Beauden Barrett at the Forsythe Barr Stadium in Dunedin on 5 August 2023. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
The loss of 23-year-old Gordon is not the only start that has hurt the Wallabies 12 months on from their World Cup disaster.
Nawaqanitawase’s aerial prowess has been missing throughout the Rugby Championship and Jordan Petaia’s imminent departure is a blow. Because the 24-year-old, who has played in two World Cups, has the skills, even if he doesn’t fully realize it yet. Australian rugby.
Dylan Pietsch provided at least some physicality, but the former Australian Sevens star has never been used so effectively in the air despite his ability to dominate the skies.
Meanwhile, the Wallabies still lack the muscle and big-match experience they need in their second-row department without Skelton.
For the Wallabies to grow and develop, retaining emerging talent such as Jeremy Williams, Nick Frost and Tupou is essential.
Otherwise, it’s a case of one step forward, another step back, as the departure of so many players over the past 12 months, including Gordon, has stifled any potential gains the Wallabies could have made at this early stage under Schmidt. It will be. .
