According to columnist Paul Williams, this is the most competitive men’s international rugby tournament ever.
Sometimes World Rugby’s ranking system has a few flaws. Mainly because you need a degree in pure mathematics to understand it. It has been reported that the great Stephen Hawking had to explain things to him twice (unless someone complains, it’s not true).
But whether you agree on who the best team in the world is, or whether you think your team should be fifth in the standings instead of sixth, the current top 10 is more competitive than ever. The recent fall series proved this.
It was without a doubt the best fall series we’ve ever seen, and every match in the top ten was very competitive. It was even more enjoyable because it was all broadcast in one place on TNT Sports. It felt like one product, one brand, which is important for a series that can feel like a hodgepodge of friends.
The competition wasn’t always fierce.
Kieren Read and Richie McCaw watching the Rugby World Cup (Getty Images)
If you look at the top of the current table and see how many times the lead has changed hands between Ireland and South Africa, you can understand just how competitive it is among the big dogs. It wasn’t always like this. From 2010 to 2019, New Zealand ranked first for the entire period. This is Russian oligarch-level dominance. It should be said that in the second half of 2019, four teams, including the All Blacks, Ireland, England, and Wales, changed places in first place.
From a purely subjective standpoint this fall, each team in the top 10 felt like they had a real opportunity to compete with one another. Few fixtures involved supporters pulverizing Valium in their coffee for fear of dire consequences.
However, the real measure of the competitiveness of the top 10 lies not in the top 10, but in the middle/bottom of teams like Italy. Twenty years ago, Italy were losing by more than 30 points against a premium side like the All Blacks, but in 2024 they were within 18 points of victory.
England are arguably the most competitive 7th ranked team of all time. Of course, England’s supporters are not happy with the result. The same goes for much of the UK-based media. Considering England’s player pool and resources, they might be right. However, England were within 9 points of South Africa, 5 points behind Australia, and 2 points behind the All Blacks. This is a significant achievement for a team that dropped to 7th place, and is something they could not have achieved 10 years ago. If you had finished 7th 10 years ago and played a team in the top four, you would have expected a huge surprise. Also, don’t forget that fifth-placed Argentina are two points away from beating Ireland in their game against Ireland.
But analyzing a few scores here and there doesn’t do justice to the competitiveness of the top 10. If you look a little deeper, you’ll see that key performance indicators (KPIs) are actually very similar. You might think that the numbers for a team in the top three of the World Rugby rankings would be very different from a team in the bottom three or middle three, but that’s not the case.
Before we look at some statistics, there are a few things to note. The numbers are average for a fall series, with some teams facing stiffer opposition than others. However, as a baseline, they still represent top 10 competitiveness.
As competition is fierce
Australia beat England in the 2024 Autumn Nations Series. (Photo: Andrew Kearns – CameraSport via Getty Images)
Australia is a fantastic example. Its current ranking of #8 is one of its lowest rankings ever, but surpasses many of its higher rankings. Australia averaged 4.7 attempts per game last autumn, which is a fantastic figure. This compares to Ireland’s 4.0, Argentina’s 3.3 and the All Blacks’ 2.5. It’s not just in attacking statistics that Australia outperforms some of the top teams. It’s almost a statistic you’d expect from Joe Schmidt given the way the Wallabies attack out wide from every position and shatter blitz defenses with intricate passing and footwork.
Australia, ranked 8th, also ranked first in the number of times it crossed the gain line. The Wallabies cross the gainline on average 79 times per game, while Souths and the All Blacks are down to around 65 gainline carries per game. The Wallabies are also top in scrum wins with seven per game, compared to Ireland’s astonishing 5.3.
But competitiveness doesn’t begin and end with scoring statistics. Italy, for example, had one of its greatest downfalls in the autumn series, a key element of the modern game. They have 5.5 close wins per game, ahead of Ireland and South Africa who have 3.0 and 3.7 close wins per game respectively. Looking at these numbers, we can assume they will overtake Italy. Italy also had a more dominant lineout than France. This is a whopping 8% better at the test level.
One of the most interesting pieces of data that highlights the competitiveness of the top 10 companies is ‘Winning Sales’. Virtually every team’s winning percentage per game is between 5.2 and 7.7 (except France, who have an unbelievable 9.0). This proves how effective modern defense and defensive breakdown work can be. You can’t really be in the top 10 without a full squad of players with ‘over the ball’ ability. Ten years ago, this role was primarily performed by three or four players on the field.
All of this bodes well for the upcoming Six Nations and could lead to a fiercely competitive tournament. Italy beating England may have once been a dream come true because someone smoked illegally from a pipe, but now it’s a very real possibility. There are also situations where Ireland, Scotland, France and England could all realistically beat each other and win the tournament. Many people over the age of 50 may believe that rugby was better ‘back then’, but that’s not true. Better and more competitive than ever before.
Disclaimer: All data and rankings were accurate at the time of writing. If something changes, it’s not the author’s fault. He did not do this to persecute you. Don’t burn down his house or scratch his car.
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