It is Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party that has been hesitating between joining the populist-radical European Conservative and Reform group and the far-right/populist Identity and Democracy group since its ouster from the European People’s Party in March 2021.
In Hungary, there are not one but two “real” radical right parties with moderate public support to the far right of Fidesz. These are the Jobbik party (1% of voting intentions, according to a recent Republikon poll) and its descendant, the Mi Hazánk movement (6%). But pollsters should note that the asteroid-like emergence of Peter Mazar has ushered in a new era on Hungary’s stagnant political landscape.
The former Fidesz member businessman and ex-husband of former Justice Minister Judit Varga has pledged to run in the June 9 elections. Mazars announced his party in mid-April, succeeding another who had already pre-registered as the nomination period for both European and local elections had passed. Magyar also announced a list of MEP candidates under a fast-track process.
Despite all this last-minute activity, Magyar will be polled by the Republikon Institute and receive 15% of support if he decides to run for office. The latter will undoubtedly affect the likelihood of radical right parties winning or losing seats in European elections.
“Nothing will change anyway”
Nonetheless, Hungarian politics is one of the most intense and radicalized in Europe. Recent protests have had only limited ties to radical right movements or political parties. Rather, it should be seen as a civil society response to the general disillusionment and political fatigue brought on by the feeling that “nothing will change anyway.”
First, there was a wave of protests this spring led by online influencers. The event saw large numbers of supporters with no clear party preference take to the streets of Budapest to protest the handling of the so-called “pedophilia scandal.” This is an incident that led to the resignation of County President Katalin Novák and the aforementioned Minister of Justice.
The influencers’ protests were not radical or far-right in nature, but rather aimed at reforming the child protection system by targeting single acts of the government that were perceived as political mistakes. A subsequent protest was organized by Péter Magyar. Magyar falls on the right side of the political spectrum, but so far there are no extreme elements in his program.
‘Despite being scapegoated by the extreme right for numerous problems, civil society remains more popular than the traditional opposition’ – Zsolt Nagy, political analyst
Both phenomena aimed to unite the entire society, and had no intention of aligning themselves with any far-right party or ideology. Magyar has yet to put forward a political party or political program, but so far it does not seem to oppose Fidesz’s stance on migration. He intentionally uses themes and messages that seem to unite voters. He does not seem to be adopting progressive policies that could offer a real alternative to the Hungarian government’s solutions.
Radical messages don’t resonate well enough
Zsolt Nagy, a political analyst at the Brussels-based think tank Democratic Society, was asked about the role of civil society in countering radical rhetoric and actions in Hungarian politics. Vox Europ: “Despite being scapegoated by the far right for many problems, civil society remains more popular than the traditional opposition. This popularity has allowed them to effectively counter radical narratives and actions over the past decade.
Cooperation between these actors was evident through joint campaigns and support for each other’s initiatives. For example, they organized marches for Roma rights in the early 2010s and protests against neo-fascist festivals in 2023. One particularly effective measure was the alternative voting approach during the 2022 referendum. Civil society activists have called for a boycott of the referendum proposing restrictions on sexual minorities in the name of child protection and encouraged voters to abstain on both the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ options.”
Another important aspect is legal activity. Nagy added that he is concerned about the harm done to refugees, especially Muslims trying to enter the country through the southern border. Organizations such as the Hungarian Civil Liberties Union and Migration Aid have filed numerous lawsuits to protect human rights against neo-fascist groups, radical local governments, and even the Hungarian state itself.
In a recent search for the source of despair in Hungarian society, a joint study by Hungarian think tank Political Capital and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation made an interesting discovery. The authors argue that the reason the Hungarian far right is no longer able to expand its support base among voters is because the boundaries between populist messages and far-right political messages are becoming increasingly blurred.
In practice, this means that traditional right-wing parties contribute to the radicalization of the political mainstream by adopting and legitimizing far-right views, while hard-line far-right parties tone down their rhetoric to appeal to a wider electorate. In Hungary, popular meme-like jokes include: Hungary’s pro-government media and its affiliates sometimes present such a ‘mixed reality’ that it is difficult to tell whether it is the latest joke from the Two-Tail Party. Or the actual political message of the Fidesz leader.
“Hungarian civil society is generally opposed to radical right-wing ideologies and raises its voice against them whenever possible,” said Nagy. or NATO” – a message that generally does not resonate with Hungarian voters.
“Mi Hazánk’s program embraces these elements, calling on a wide range of members of civil society, from human rights defenders to health NGOs, to unite against populist voices. But the implementation of the radical proposals of the Fidesz-KDNP government has made their efforts increasingly difficult. It’s getting harder,” explains Nagy.
Two-way mainstreaming
More broadly, political scientists warn that the dangers of populism, called “two-way mainstreaming,” suggest that the radicalization of the political mainstream and its acceptance of the far right could become more widespread. This can destabilize political systems and deepen social divisions, while fostering distrust in democratic institutions.
An interesting indicator of social change in Hungary is provided by the Right-wing Extremism Demand Index (DEREX), based on the European Social Survey database. Although the database has only been updated until 2017 (increasing social demand has played a significant role in strengthening institutionalized far-right movements in Hungary over the past 15 years), data is available for this index.
Overall, statistics show that Hungarians lead European countries in terms of prejudice and social chauvinism, and are among the leaders in fear, distrust and pessimism. Data shows an extreme increase in the number of young people aged 15 and over between 2002 and 2010, and the country still ranks highly among European countries.
