Russia and Ukraine failed to agree on a range of important issues when they held peace talks in spring 2022. Documents from the talks obtained by The New York Times shed new light on what those issues are and what the key issues will be. It’s a sticking point for future negotiations to end Europe’s biggest ground war.
President Vladimir V. Putin has cited the 2022 talks as the basis for a future deal, but switched to a harder line on Friday, demanding that Ukraine cede territory that is not even under Russian control. Ukrainian and Western officials have long suspected that Russia would not be willing to compromise on anything short of the outright conquest of Ukraine.
1. Ukrainian neutrality:
Should we join NATO?
Ukraine’s efforts to join the Western military alliance were central to Putin’s justification for invading Ukraine in February 2022.
Russia’s position
Russia made a request to Ukraine. Never join NATO or other allies; host foreign military bases or a weapon; or do military training With other countries without consent. At the 2022 talks, Russia pledged not to hinder Ukraine’s possible accession to the European Union.
Ukraine’s position
Ukraine is “Permanently neutral country” and “End an international treaty and agreements incompatible with permanent neutrality.” But as Russia’s war continued over the next two years, Ukrainian leaders increasingly sought to join the Western military alliance.
2. Security assurance:
What happens if Ukraine is attacked again?
Promises from other countries to protect Ukraine in case of another Russian invasion could be central to a lasting peace, some experts say.
Ukraine’s position
Ukraine proposed a security mechanism that would be triggered “in the event of an armed attack against Ukraine.” The ‘guarantor’ countries that signed the treaty will conduct ‘urgent and immediate consultations’ within three days. then they will take “Whether it is individual or joint action, to protect Ukraine, including by establishing “where necessary” no fly zoneProviding weapons and Use of military force.
Russia’s position
Russia agreed to most of Ukraine’s security guarantee proposals, with key exceptions. They balked at the idea of other countries establishing no-fly zones or providing weapons to Ukraine. Most importantly, Russia attempted to insert the following clause: Requires all guarantor countries, including Russia, to agree to military intervention. This idea is probably the most difficult stumbling block in the draft. In other words, it makes security guarantees a moot point by allowing Russia to defy any international response if it invades Ukraine again.
There were also questions. Which countries are actually willing to guarantee Ukraine’s security? The United States, Britain, France, China, and Russia itself were all included as guarantors in the draft treaty. Russia also wanted to include Belaruswhile Ukraine wanted to add Turkey; It is unclear whether the countries agreed. If Ukraine eventually joins NATO, the Western alliance will have to deal with the equally thorny question of how to respond if Ukraine is attacked again.
3. Territory:
How much of Ukraine will remain under Russian occupation?
For Ukraine, a peace deal would likely be reached in exchange for accepting Russian control over part of its territory.
Ukraine’s position
At the 2022 talks, Ukraine refused to recognize Russian control over any country, including Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. But Ukraine proposed a deal that both countries agreed to. “Solving problems related to Crimea” Through 10 to 15 years of diplomacy Do not do so by “military means.”
Ukraine appeared ready to accept parts of its eastern region still under Russian occupation, the precise outlines of which would be revealed in talks between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin that never came.
Since then, Mr. Zelensky’s position has become firmer. He said Ukraine was fighting to liberate all internationally recognized territories, including Crimea, from Russian control.
Russia’s position
Russia’s position also changed. At the start of negotiations in 2022, Russia demanded from Ukraine: abandon all of eastern Donbas Region and awareness Russian sovereignty over Crimea. By April, Russia had accepted the model, with Crimea and parts of Ukraine adopting it. Remains under Russian occupation Ukraine will not recognize it as legal.
But now Russia’s territorial demands appear more extreme. In September 2022, President Putin declared four Ukrainian regions, in addition to Crimea, as part of Russia, despite Ukraine still controlling large parts of the territory. Last Friday, Putin went further than in the past and declared that a ceasefire would be reached with Ukraine having to cede all four regions to Russia, none of which would be under full Russian control.
4. How is a ceasefire established?
The logistics of how to bring the ceasefire into effect is likely to be one of the most difficult tasks in any negotiations.
Russia’s position
An appendix to the April 2022 draft added by Russian negotiators details how Moscow viewed the ceasefire. They said it would begin once the treaty was “provisionally applied”. This is defined as the date on which most guarantor countries, including Ukraine and Russia, signed the treaty. Both sides said they “will not take actions that could expand the territory they control or resume hostilities.”
Under the terms proposed by Russia, Moscow’s troops will have more flexibility in withdrawing from the battlefield. while Ukraine must withdraw immediately; Russia’s withdrawal will be problematic. A separate ‘consultation’ will be held.
International organizations can also participate. Russia has proposed that the United Nations monitor the ceasefire and that the Red Cross participate in the exchange of prisoners of war, detained civilians and the dead.
Ukraine’s position
The April 2022 draft shows Ukraine rejecting Russia’s proposal but does not indicate Ukraine’s counteroffer. Instead, Ukrainian officials pointed out that Russia could stop fighting at any time. A note inserted by Ukrainian officials into the March 2022 draft treaty reads: “The Russian side has ignored numerous calls for a ceasefire from Ukraine.”
5. Ukrainian national identity
When President Putin announced the invasion on February 24, 2022, he described one of his goals as the “denazification” of Ukraine. The term has been widely interpreted to refer to the Kremlin’s goal of overthrowing Zelenskyy’s government and replacing it with a puppet regime.
Russia’s position
But Russia’s definition of “denazification” changed quickly after the initial invasion failed. Moscow negotiator wanted declare Russian as official language Laws promoting the Ukrainian language and identity are repealed. They inserted two annexes into the draft treaty listing the legal provisions they wanted repealed and the articles of Ukraine’s constitution, some of which they referred to as “the law on”.Naziization and the heroization of Nazism.”
Ukraine’s position
Ukraine has been reluctant to include Russia’s demands in negotiations to end the war. “It has nothing to do with the subject matter of the treaty.”
6. Restrictions on the Ukrainian Armed Forces
When announcing his invasion, Putin also called for the “demilitarization” of Ukraine, which is the equivalent of “denazification,” a poorly defined term.
Russia’s position
Russia has sought to limit the size of Ukraine’s military, including its overall force.Up to 100,000 people) and the quantity of different types of weapons it will possess — 147 mortars and 10 combat helicopters, for example. it also wanted Ukrainian missile launch range Limited to 25 miles.
Ukraine’s position
At the 2022 talks, Ukraine was willing to accept limits on the size of its military, but would allow for much higher sizes. We found the largest army. Population: 250,000, 1,080 mortars, 60 combat helicopters. And it suggested a limit Missile range: 174 miles. But that was before Ukraine received significant amounts of weapons, equipment and training from the West. Ukrainian officials note that Ukraine’s military is currently one of the strongest in Europe and are unlikely to accept restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
original document
These documents have been retyped to resemble the original to omit identifying marks. Typographic errors in the original document were retained.
Draft Treaty, March 17, 2022 Early draft of the Ukraine-Russia Treaty. This document is an English translation provided by Ukraine to Western governments at the time. (english)
March 29, 2022, Istanbul Statement Proposed agreement discussed at in-person talks in Istanbul outlined by Ukrainian negotiators. (English translation) (Russian original)
Draft Treaty, 15 April 2022 Latest draft of the Ukraine-Russia Treaty. The document’s header shows that this is the version that ended up on President Vladimir Putin’s desk. Maps referred to in Annex 6 are not included. (English translation) (Russian original)
