Everyone loves a good upset.
It’s fun to root for the underdog, and it’s not often you get to see them win. But that leaves us wondering, what was the biggest upset of this year’s NFL and college football season?
Has a double-digit underdog won this year? Is it more common for the underdog to win in college football than in the NFL? If you’re asking these questions, we’re here to help.
FOX Sports Research dug into the data to break down the top five biggest upsets in each sport based on point spread. Has your team created a list?
Let’s take a look:
NFL
Week 12 Commander’s Cowboy (+10.5)
The biggest upset of the season from a point spread perspective came in Week 12 when the Cowboys took down the Commanders as 10.5-point underdogs on the road. Cooper Rush went 24-of-32 for 247 passing yards and two passing scores with no interceptions, upsetting Washington, which clinched a playoff spot last week. Since 2022, underdogs by 10 or more points are 9-55 (SU) over that span and just 1-14 in the 2024 season. Through 17 weeks of play, the Cowboys are the only team to win as a double-digit underdog.
Raiders at Ravens in Week 2 (+9)
Baltimore got off to a slow start to the season, dropping its opener to the Chiefs and then losing by 9 points to the Raiders the following week. You might think upsets are more common early in the season, but underdogs that are held by 9 or more points in Week 2 are actually 2-16 since 2015 and 3-36 since 2004. Looking specifically at the Raiders, they are 6-29. SU has been an underdog by nine or more points in a regular season game since the 2010 season.
Patriots at Bengals in Week 1 (+8)
Week 1 started with great confusion. The Patriots were a favorite to finish with the worst record in the NFL entering the season. That’s not wrong, as Vegas is now 3-13, their worst record in 17 weeks. But they knocked off Joe Burrow and the Bengals as eight-point underdogs in the season opener. Since 2002, New England has been an underdog by 8 points or more in 10 regular season games and has a 2-8 record in those games. Another win came in 2016 when Jimmy Garoppolo started against the Cardinals and was an 8.5-point ‘dog.
Broncos at Jets Week 4 (+8)
This may be a surprising result, but what bookmakers and fans alike didn’t know was that the Jets would be 4-12 on the season heading into Week 18. With the final week of the season approaching, competition for a playoff spot is fierce. In Week 4, Bo Nix faced the Jets as eight-point underdogs and won by one point in a game in which they totaled just 19 points. Denver is 11-5 against the spread (ATS) this season, tied for the second-highest cover percentage in the league. The Broncos are 5-22 SU and an 8-point underdog since 1998, and this is their first win since 2021.
Week 12 Titans at Texans (+8)
Like several other teams on this list, the Titans have struggled all year. They are currently 3-13 on the season, tied for the worst record in the NFL. But Brian Callahan’s team got a much-needed win in Week 12, knocking off the Texans as eight-point underdogs. Here’s a nugget that shows just how rare this type of win is for Tennessee. Since 1985, the Titans are 9-43 SU as an 8-point underdog.
college football
Northern Illinois (+28), 5 Notre Dame, Week 2
The biggest underdog win in college football this year was Northern Illinois in Week 2, beating Notre Dame by 28 points. Ireland’s defeat was the first by a top five team against an unranked opponent since 2002. MAC teams entering that game were 0-50 against AP top five teams since 1978. That’s according to the odds database. This was Northern Illinois’ first win over a top five team in history, having gone 0-14 against top ten teams since 1978.
Freedom at Kennesaw State (+27), Week 9
This was one of the biggest upsets of the entire college football season. Liberty entered the matchup as a 27-point favorite against an 0-6 Kennesaw State team. But what makes this confusing situation truly special is that the Owls 2024 season is the first of its kind at the FBS level. They lost those six games by an average of 19.3 points per outing and were facing a Flames team that is not only 5-0, but also 13-0 on the 2023 regular season campaign. But somehow Kennesaw State did it. They earned their first win as an FBS program with a 27-24 win at home.
Week 6 1 Vanderbilt at Alabama (+23.5)
In perhaps the biggest win in program history, Vanderbilt knocked off No. 1 Alabama as a 23.5-point underdog in a shootout in Week 6. This win was so historic that I’ve listed a few nuggets below to put into context just how amazing it was.
- Alabama was a 23.5-point favorite. It was the sixth time since 1978 that a No. 1 AP team lost as a 23-point favorite, and the first time since 2008.
- AP’s No. 1 team with 23 or more points has now gone 244-6 since 1978.
- Alabama enters the game with a 60-0 record when playing as an AP No. 1 ranked team and has been a 20-point favorite since 1978.
- Alabama entered the game with a 155-3 record, having been a 20+ point favorite since 1978 (losses to Georgia Tech (+24) in 1981, LSU (+24) in 1993, and UL Monroe (+24.5) in 2007). .
- Alabama became the fourth AP-ranked team in history to lose to an unranked opponent (losing to Texas A&M in 2021, Mississippi State in 1980 and Georgia Tech in 1962).
- Alabama enters the game with a 60-2 record against unranked opponents, having played as the AP’s No. 1 ranked team since 1978 (losses to Texas A&M in 2021 and Mississippi State in 1980).
- Vanderbilt is now 1-7 against AP ranked teams since 1978. In those seven losses they have scored one goal. 44 in total points (40 against Alabama).
- Vanderbilt also earned its first win over an AP top five team. Played 0-60 second game against AP top 5 opponent.
Texas State at Georgia (+23), Week 13
Dell McGee’s first season as head coach at Georgia State University was a difficult one. The Panthers went 3-9 on the year and snapped a seven-game losing streak against Texas State. However, despite being 23-point underdogs against the Bobcats, they were able to win by 8 points in a game in which they scored a combined 96 points. They don’t call the Sun Belt conferences the “Fun Belt” for nothing.
Stanford (+21), Week 12, Louisville 22:00
Stanford’s first year in the ACC was less than ideal, going 3-9 and 2-6 in conference play. However, Troy Taylor & Co. picked up a big win over No. 22 Louisville in Week 12. The win snapped a six-game losing streak and was Stanford’s third and final win of the season. The Cardinal recorded their first win against an AP-ranked opponent since 2021 and are just 1-14 against top-25 opponents since 2022, with their only win coming against Louisville. Since 1978, ACC teams have outscored fellow ACC teams by 20 to 25 points, while SU has been outscored by 11 to 127 points. This was a really big mess.
