Three defeats to Argentina in as many years. A national game threatened by wealthy Northern clubs and stubborn provincial alliances. A high-profile new international coach criticised for the unconvincing performances of a young team.
Who would have thought that the Springboks would win the World Cup next season? And then again four years later?
Those who felt the gloom, gloom and schadenfreude after the All Blacks’ recent defeat to Argentina will not be long in coming. Recent history shows that Los Pumas can occasionally cause such chaos, and that rugby powerhouses can find a way to overcome difficult times.
New Zealand will not be able to achieve this by copying South Africa, and our benchmark is probably not the wildly successful Richie McCaw era. In this article, we will look at what we can expect from the All Blacks in the near and distant future. Then in the second part, we will explain how New Zealand rugby can get to the top and maintain its position.
Team Status
Up until 2018, the Springboks had suffered far more humiliating defeats than the All Blacks. Sure, both teams lost to Argentina three times, but New Zealand have consistently beaten Italy and have never lost by a margin closer to 57-0. They also have kept almost all of their first-choice international players in-house and their finances are not as catastrophic.
South Africa, on the other hand, has been producing a golden generation of players in the green jersey for many years now, a group of players of the same age who would form the bulk of their World Cup winning teams. This is a rare asset, and one that Rassie Erasmus has capitalised on brilliantly.
Sadly, rookie All Blacks coach Scott Robertson can’t use either of them. A much better analogy would be John Hart’s 1998 All Blacks, who had just lost or nearly lost the GOATs and greats in Sean Fitzpatrick, Michael Jones, Zinjan Brook, Ollo Brown, Walter Little and Frank Burns. Suddenly the pack had a soft centre and the rest of the generation were nowhere near the same level. Also, key parts of the backline were inexperienced in their roles at Test level.
(Photo courtesy of Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
That’s what Razor Robertson inherited. Just before the 2023 World Cup, I wrote that “a generation of far from golden forwards has left the All Blacks badly exposed”. Since then, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Dane Coles, Aaron Smith, Richie Mounga and Shannon Frizell have left, with Sam Cane and TJ Perenara taking their final curtain calls.
The Copper generation are now senior pros, and the youngsters and bench-warmers will have to fill the void left by Golden in two key areas. Lock and blindside flank are the engine of the modern team, and New Zealand have lost three of the four players who played those roles so strongly in the last game of the World Cup. Their replacements will have a tough time facing five or six tough Springbok opponents over the next two weeks, but the Springbok injury crisis at Lock could help. Meanwhile, Richie Munya and Aaron Smith’s replacements haven’t seen much time in the key match-winning No. 9 and No. 10 black jerseys.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM RAZOR’S ALL BLACKS
It’s not just new teams that are inconsistent. Inexperienced Test coaches tend to have a steep learning curve. Razor has plenty of head coaching experience at lower levels, but the mentors who have found immediate Test success over the past 20 years have either had experience in both hemispheres or Test matches. Examples include Jacques Nienaber, Fabien Galthie, Eddie Jones, Joe Schmidt, Steve Hansen, Warren Gatland and Graham Henry. Others who have found success a little later, such as Steve Borthwick, Andy Farrell and Rassie Erasmus, are no different. Robertson is not like that, nor are most of his assistants and other staff.
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So don’t expect too much in the first year. Hopefully, but don’t expect too much. Right now, we’re leaving to a very established team and coach. They’re the best in the world and a truly great team. To win one game in Africa would be a fantastic achievement and I expect a 2-0 home win. There could be an embarrassing incident on a similar scale to the 57-0 South Africa defeat in Albany or a loss to Italy, who are coming off a tough year. But whatever happens, it will be a good experience and the coach and new players will be better.
How much better? Who knows? Probably not at the level of the GOAT McCaw era, but no team should be blamed for not reaching that standard. Now that they are relying on the Copper Generation for leadership, they are unlikely to become legends, but with promising (and at least bigger) young players growing up, the team will be a real contender in 2027 and will remain at the top of the rugby nation.
South Africa manager Rassie Erasmus before the Qatar Airways Cup match at Twickenham Stadium in London. Photo date: Saturday, June 22, 2024. (Photo by Andrew Matthews/PA Images via Getty Images)
What about in the long run?
The current situation in New Zealand seems worse to many than it actually is, as the Kiwis have been spoiled (and their opponents traumatized) by the overwhelming All Black success. The Kiwi dominance has lasted so long that it has been seen as normal, but in fact it was always going to be a victim of the cycle of life. In fact, it was great to see some South African Roarers enjoying the current generation and showing maturity in the knowledge that it might not last.
To properly evaluate the All Blacks, or to assess the ability of New Zealand to produce an acceptable All Blacks team, we need to avoid the trap of modernism that has beset much of the current debate and take a longer-term view of our history.
Let’s go back to 1998. The All Blacks haven’t reached a World Cup final in six years, haven’t won the Bledisloe Test in five years, losing first to Australia and then to England. Going back further, 1996-97 was a triumph, but between 1991-1995 Australia and South Africa won the World Cup and the Bledisloe Test was a tie. Going back further, New Zealand dominated from 1987-1990, but before that Australia won convincingly in New Zealand, and really, by a long shot, the All Blacks haven’t won a series in South Africa for decades.
So, outside of the GOAT era, New Zealand was completely dominant only in 1987-90 and 1996-97. The greatest achievement was the most successful overall in history, while other countries experienced ups and downs. Having a period of great success at the peak of a generational cycle should be the long-term goal.
In the meantime, we seem to have entered a similar period to the 1990s and 2000s, when the top five were Australia, New Zealand, the UK, South Africa and France. If you replace Australia with Ireland, you get the Big Five today. It is unclear how long this period will last, but the important thing is to ensure that New Zealand continues to exist in the next era and beyond.
How to achieve it? Find out in the following article!
Question to you
James Parsons recently told Aotearoa Ford that he would not tolerate an All Black defeat in South Africa, as the huge public demand helps to drive team performance. Is it possible to take a realistic long-term view without contributing to a lower standard in particular games and overall?
Also, how similar is the current team to 1998? And what are your thoughts on the prospects for the Lasers and the All Blacks beyond?
Now it’s your turn.
