The 2024 UK election is set to reshape British politics. Here’s what you need to know about Labour’s chances of winning.

London – British voters cast their ballots on Thursday in the country’s first general election since 2019. Exit Poll Predictions Labour won a landslide victory over the Conservatives, taking 410 seats.

Among those heading to their local polling stations were incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has led the government for 14 years under the leadership of Conservative voters, and his main rival and likely successor, Labour leader Keir Starmer.

Here’s what you need to know about the 2024 UK general election.

Who will run for election in Britain?

British voters did not directly elect a new leader on Thursday. Under Britain’s parliamentary system, voters choose local representatives for the House of Commons, the lower house of parliament.

There are 650 seats up for grabs in the House of Commons on Thursday, each of which is occupied by a single member of parliament (MP). To win an absolute majority in the House of Commons, a single party needs to win at least 326 seats, or more than half of the available seats. The party that achieves this will form the next government, with the party leader becoming prime minister.

Exit polls showed the Conservatives would win just 131 seats, while Labour was projected to win 410.

(Yes, King Charles III is the official head of state of the United Kingdom. Read it here The actual power it can transmit is limited.)

Parliament was formally dissolved on May 30 when Sunak held an election, but before then Sunak’s long-ruling Conservative Party had a majority of 345 seats and thus significant power to set the policy agenda.

The UK has what is called a ‘constituency majority system’, which means voters are given a ballot paper with a list of candidates from different parties and choose just one candidate. The candidate who gets the most votes in each constituency wins the seat. There is no specific threshold required. For example, if there are six candidates in a particular contest, all from different parties, and the candidate with the most votes gets only 25% of the total, he or she will still win the seat.

If a voter believes that their favorite candidate is unlikely to win, they can vote strategically and mark an X next to the other candidate’s name. This is effectively a second choice, but they can do so if they think that candidate is more likely to win. This strategy is generally seen as a way for voters to prevent candidates who are considered very disadvantaged but have a good chance of winning from winning seats in a contest.

In practice, this system means that a party can win a healthy share of the national vote but not win a proportional representation in parliament. Smaller parties in Britain have long argued that the majority vote electoral system has helped to strengthen the power of the country’s two biggest parties: the incumbent Conservative Party (also known as the Conservative Party) and its main rival, the left-wing Labour Party.

What is the UK election schedule?

Voting in the UK general election begins on Thursday morning, with most constituencies expected to have results by early Friday morning, although it could take longer in some rural areas of the country, particularly if the vote tally is close or a recount is needed.

Early indications of the overall outcome of the UK general election usually come when British broadcasters Sky News, ITV and CBS News’ partner network BBC News release a joint exit poll shortly after voting closes. That poll predicted a Labour victory.

Exit polls are generally accurate in indicating the final outcome, which is expected to be announced around 10 p.m. local time (5 p.m. ET) on Thursday.

UK election forecast and polling data

Pollsters and political analysts have been predicting for weeks that Labour will win an overwhelming majority in parliament. If the latest polling data is accurate, Sunak’s 18-month term will end and Britons will see a new party in charge of the country for the first time in 14 years on Friday morning.

The Conservative Party’s 14 years in power were characterised by: Political and economic turmoilIn the past eight years alone, five Conservative prime ministers have taken turns occupying Number 10 Downing Street.

A recent poll by YouGov, a leading independent data analytics group, found Labour was ahead by 17 percentage points, with 39% of those polled saying they would vote Labour, compared with 22% of the public who said they would vote Conservative.

The Labour candidate is expected to win 430 seats in the House of Commons, which would be a massive gain of 228 seats for the party. The Conservatives are expected to retain just 130 seats, which would be a massive loss of 235 seats.

Who is Keir Starmer, the leading candidate to become the next Prime Minister?

Starmer was elected by party members to lead Labour in 2020, shortly after the party suffered its worst general election defeat in 85 years. He immediately declared it his mission to make the party “electable” again.

Four years later, Starmer, 61, is preparing to take up Britain’s highest office.

He has often been criticised for lacking charisma, but his efforts to bring Labour back to the centre of British politics and appeal to a wider electorate appear to have paid off.

During his time leading the party, Starmer systematically excluded the far-left, socialist wing of Labour that led the party under former leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Starmer’s deliberate shift from socialism to centrism has drawn criticism from pundits and voters on the left, and may cost Labour some votes to smaller parties such as the Lib Dems and the Greens, but polls suggest it is a winning strategy overall.

Is Britain bucking Europe’s rightward shift?

Amid expectations of a centre-left Labour government in Britain, the developments run counter to trends seen across Europe in recent years, with far-right parties on the rise.

Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigrant National Rally party is within reach of becoming France’s largest party in the first round of French parliamentary elections on Sunday. got one third of the votes In the first round, which saw the highest voter turnout in history.

If voters maintain that momentum in the decisive second round on July 7, It would represent an unprecedented shift to the right. For the French.

Last month’s European Parliament elections There have also been record numbers of far-right MPs winning seats in Europe’s three biggest economies – Italy, France and Germany – as right-wing candidates campaigned on opposition platforms. immigrantEulji Jihada Ukraine And green Environmental Policy.

A Labour victory would go against the political winds of the continent, but Britain has seen a surge in support for far-right candidates this election cycle.

Nigel Farage may be familiar to Americans as: Ally of former President Donald Trump. His fervent anti-immigrant rhetoric had a huge impact on the British-led movement. The European Union’s “Brexit”.

After decades as a far-right force in British politics and trying to win a seat in parliament eight times, Farage looks set to finally win his constituency of Clacton in southeast England this year.

Far-right reform party of Paraji It is expected to win only around five seats in parliament, including Farage’s, but YouGov estimates that overall support for the Reform Party nationally is around 15% of voters, and given its current situation of having no seats in the House of Commons, the party is likely to see a significant increase in popularity.

Political analysts say the Reform Party’s anti-immigration message is causing the Conservative Party’s vote to plummet.

So while Farage may not be in power any time soon, he is likely to soon be thrust into the limelight of British politics, potentially giving him enormous influence over the politics of a Conservative Party that is trying to rebuild itself in the aftermath of a devastating election, backed by significant popular support.

Frank Andrews of CBS News contributed to this report.