You might not know it by looking at the sticker prices at the grocery store, but Thanksgiving dinner is a lot cheaper than it was a few years ago.
The cost of this year’s holiday feast (estimated at $58.08 for a gathering of 10, or $5.81 per person) is down 5% from last year and the lowest since 2021, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s National Grocery Price Survey. , which represents millions of American farmers. But when you take inflation into account, the situation gets even better.
“If your dollar had the same overall purchasing power as consumers in 1984… this would be the cheapest Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving Survey, excluding the outlier in 2020,” the authors wrote. .
In many families it doesn’t feel that way.
A defining feature of the post-pandemic recovery and the 2024 election will be the difference between Americans’ sour views of the economy and its fundamental strengths. Naturally, many shoppers focus on price level (the dollar value of what they are buying) rather than the inflation-adjusted or “real” cost of the purchase. The latter is a true test of affordability because it reflects wage inflation, an often underestimated part of the inflation puzzle.
In fact, Thanksgiving food prices have risen 19% since 2019, according to AFBF, while median household wages have increased about 25% during the same period, according to federal data.
Moreover, “the average American must work fewer hours than in the previous year to afford the same meal,” the report added. “Wages have continued to grow rapidly since the COVID-19 pandemic even as inflation has cooled, with average wages rising 4% from 2023 to 2024, meaning it takes 9% less work to pay for a Thanksgiving dinner this year. .”
Of course, wage increases have not spread evenly across all workers, and long-term costs such as housing costs and child care continue to squeeze families up and down the income spectrum. Consumer confidence has surged in recent weeks but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
However, the AFBF report said: “Despite the declining purchasing power of the dollar, some products in our basket are at their lowest prices in the long term, even in ‘current dollar’ terms.”
For example, prices for turkeys are 6% lower than last year, even though avian flu has wiped out some of our turkey stocks. Shortages typically cause prices to rise, but Americans are eating about a pound less turkey per person each year, reducing demand enough to offset the supply hit.
Certain processed foods on your Thanksgiving table are more expensive. Dinner rolls and cube stuffing are each selling for 8% more than a year ago. On the other hand, sweet potatoes and whole milk had the largest annual price declines, falling 26% and 14%, respectively. Fresh cranberry prices rose 12%, reversing an 18% decline the previous year, but remain at their lowest level since 2015 and, adjusted for inflation, similar to prices in 1987, the report said.
These affordability gains are good news for inflation-weary shoppers, many of whom are increasingly focused on value this year. Major consumer brands have been chasing discount-hungry customers with price cuts and promotions for months. Some companies, like Walmart and TJ Maxx, are seeing greater success than others, like Target.
As the holidays approach, the discounts become more intense, and grocery retailers are no exception. The price of food eaten at home rose 1.1% last month compared to the same period last year, which compares to an average increase of 2.6% in overall consumer prices.
Both Target and Aldi have launched Thanksgiving deals with lower prices than last year. Target is offering a $20 Thanksgiving meal that feeds four, including a small turkey, canned vegetables and a stovetop stuffing mix. Aldi is offering a $47 meal package for 10 people, which it advertises as cheaper than its 2019 price. Walmart is promoting an “Inflation-Free Thanksgiving” meal consisting of 29 items that feeds eight people for $56. Amazon Fresh is offering Thanksgiving deals on turkey, sides and desserts that feed six people for less than $5 each, with additional discounts for Prime members.
Experts say the flood of promotions creates many opportunities to compare products.
“I would advise consumers to look at what that meal consists of,” said Robin Wenzel, director of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Research Institute. “Don’t be afraid to check out multiple retailers.”
Some Thanksgiving meal packages come with more ingredients, but that may mean you have to prepare more dishes from scratch. Others have fewer items but require less prep work. “For many families, Thanksgiving is very personal, and our variety of offerings allows consumers to tailor their grocery shopping to fit their gatherings,” Wenzel said.
According to Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, one cost-saving strategy is to purchase the store’s own “private label” brands. This reportedly saves shoppers $17 on 10 Thanksgiving menu items. Experts at Consumer Reports recommend signing up for supermarket loyalty and cashback programs for additional savings. These programs often offer conveniences like virtual coupons within the store’s app.
Ultimately, how much people pay for Thanksgiving dinner also varies by location. AFBF estimated that households in the West, where holiday groceries are most expensive, will spend on average about 18 percent more than households in the South, where holiday groceries are the most expensive.
