Texas, Florida, Arizona and Idaho are likely to gain House seats after the 2030 census, according to consulting firm Election Data Services.
The company said in a press release Friday that if congressional redistribution were held “today,” it would see the addition of two congressional seats in Texas and Florida and one each in Arizona and Idaho. This is based on 2024 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
California would lose two seats, according to population estimates, and Illinois, Minnesota, New York and Oregon would lose one seat if current apportionments proceed, the company said.
Losing seats in places like New York or California, which are among the largest states in the country by population, could also be a risk for Democrats. The Empire and the Golden States are now considered left-leaning strongholds that have been key to Democratic victories and power in recent years.
Gaining seats in four generally right-leaning states would benefit Republicans, who hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives in the session that ends Jan. 3. The House of Representatives is expected to be nearly evenly split early next year. The Democratic and Republican parties are divided, with the Republican Party leading by two seats, 217-215.
In an interview with Fox News’ Brett Baier that aired earlier this month, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was asked about a New York Times report that the speaker would soon have to face a slim Republican majority in the House. .
“Look, we’re very excited about this. “We have already proven that we can govern with a small majority.” Johnson answered. “And I’m confident that we can meet the conditions and get this agenda accomplished. And (it) will be very aggressive from the start.”
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