tesla On Thursday, it published its fourth quarter vehicle production and deliveries report. The main numbers are:
Total shipments in Q4 2024: 495,570
Total production in the fourth quarter of 2024: 459,445
Total annual shipments in 2024: 1,789,226
Total annual production in 2024: 1,773,443
This quarter’s results represent the first annual decline in deliveries for Tesla, which reported 1.81 million deliveries in 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2023, it reported 484,507 deliveries.
Tesla shares fell as much as 7% in trading Thursday.
Analysts expect Tesla to report deliveries of 504,770 units in the quarter, including 474,000 Model 3 and Model Y EVs, according to a consensus of estimates compiled by StreetAccount. Tesla sent some investors a delivery agreement for 506,763 vehicles written by the company, based on a survey of 26 analysts. A widely respected independent Tesla researcher, publishing as Troy Teslike, predicted deliveries of 501,000 units.
Deliveries are the closest approximation to Tesla’s reported sales, but are not precisely defined in the company’s shareholder communications.
The fourth-quarter report comes after a huge year-end rally for Tesla stock, which ended 2024 up 63%. In mid-December, the stock broke records, hitting its previous all-time high in 2021.
It’s a big turnaround from the first quarter, when the stock plummeted 29%, its worst since 2022, as it battled declining sales despite price cuts and buyer incentives. During the company’s first quarter earnings call in April, CEO Elon Musk told investors he expected “sales this year will be higher than last year” but that growth would slow from 38% in 2023.
The biggest story at Tesla in the second half of the year was Musk’s role in President-elect Donald Trump’s election campaign. Musk, the world’s richest man, has poured about $277 million into promoting Trump and other Republican candidates, spending weeks on the road campaigning in swing states.
Elon Musk is talking with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump while watching the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket held in Brownsville, Texas, U.S. on November 19, 2024.
Brandon Bell | via Reuters
Musk, who runs SpaceX and xAI and owns the social network
Sam Fiorani, vice president of industry research group AutoForecast Solutions, told CNBC in an email that Musk’s foray into politics “may have distracted him from his core business.” But the extent of interest from investors or EV buyers won’t be reflected in Tesla’s numbers until the first quarter, he said.
Until recently, Tesla was one of the only automakers mass-producing battery electric vehicles. Currently, the company faces stiff competition from domestic car manufacturers including: general motors, ford and Rivian Not only China’s BYD, Korea’s Hyundai, and Europe’s major automakers BMW and Volkswagen.
Patrick George, editor-in-chief of InsideEVs, told CNBC that he believes Tesla still does many things better than any other EV manufacturer, especially when it comes to charging networks. But Tesla’s biggest operational challenge in recent quarters was “the basic business of being a car company.”
‘Piles of used cars pile up’
Tesla has invested in humanoid robotics initiatives and chip development, and plans to produce dedicated robotaxis and launch a driverless ride-hailing service before 2027. Musk and shareholders may not want to see Tesla as just a car company, but most of its profits still come from vehicle sales.
George said Tesla made a mistake by not launching a “more affordable EV in 2024,” adding that the company’s newest vehicle, the Cybertruck, is “piling up on used car lots.” Pricing for the angular steel Cybertruck starts at around $80,000.
As competitors gained market share in Europe, Tesla saw a sharp decline in sales in the region during the fourth quarter.
The new Tesla Model Y electric vehicle is loaded onto a car transporter at the Tesla Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg site.
Patrick Fleul | Picture Alliance | getty images
From January to the end of November, Tesla sold 283,000 vehicles in Europe, down about 14% from the same period last year, according to registration data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). Registrations in Europe fell to 18,786 in November from about 31,810 in the same period last year.
The Chinese business was also under pressure in the fourth quarter.
Fiorani said that although the Model Y is the second best-selling model in China, “the growth of the Model Y is not keeping up with the market growth.” Through November, Model Y sales were up more than 5%, but overall EV sales in the country were up 8%, he said.
Meanwhile, BYD and other brands in China, including Chery, Li Auto, Jetour, LeapMotor and Aito, have grown much faster than Tesla. BYD is also setting up factories outside of China and exporting significant amounts.
In North America, Tesla remained dominant. The company also offered various incentives and price cuts on its most popular Model Y SUV during the fourth quarter to boost sales. Nonetheless, Tesla has experienced inventory build-up.
During the fourth quarter, the company sent Cybertruck assembly line workers home for a few days, indicating it may be trying to avoid flooding the market with too many vehicles.
Looking ahead to 2025, Musk said during an earnings call in October that he expects Tesla to launch low-cost self-driving cars in 2025, which would lead to “20 to 30 percent growth” compared to 2024.
see: The Chinese automobile market could reach 55-60% EV share by the end of 2025.
