Take note of the Welsh side at your peril

Wales are a much more familiar foe to this Wallabies side than England were last week.

Australia hosted Warren Gatland’s side in July earlier this year and were the perfect match for Joe Schmidt to begin his managerial duties.

Recent Matchups

The Wallabies have inflicted two defeats on Wales’ winless run in 2024. The Australian mentor and his new-look coaching ticket were meant to be “revenge” for the 2023 World Cup defeat.

Schmidt and co. They were adamant that the World Cup was not a factor in the growth, but rather the new team. But if the Wallabies are to truly make a fresh start under Eddie’s regime, they cannot rely on injuries to perform and they will need to heal those wounds. That’s what led to Liam Wright being elected team captain.

His promotion signaled a new era for this Wallabies team. Whatever happens under Schmidt, Australia have made it clear that this is a new team and not a remnant for 2023.

Here’s a comparison of Wales’ starting team at AAMI Park in July with the team selected for this weekend’s match-up.

Wales’ 2024 record

The compounding losses in 2024 came to a head with former stalwarts like Mike Phillips questioning the manager.

Phillips, who is currently serving a 25-month driving ban after being arrested on July 7 for having his blood alcohol exceed the legal limit three times, took to X (formerly Twitter) to provide a performance review of Gatland’s recent work.

Jamie Roberts and Dan Biggar have also been vocal this week, expressing their disappointment with Wales’ results in 2024.

However, looking at the current playing group, the effects of an over-reliance on players like Ken Owens, Alun Wyn Jones, Taulupe Faletau and George North are being felt.

Wales bought the win on credit, so to speak. The squad was overly reliant on stalwarts as they lacked any real quality to push them out of the squad.

However, Gatland and Wayne Pivac’s failure to bring in new players little by little alongside these stalwarts has resulted in the quality of the overall squad declining year on year.

Andrew Calloway challenges for the ball in Melbourne. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Nonetheless, let’s take a look at some of the players who replaced the aforementioned stalwarts in today’s team. Dewi Lake is now a key element of this Wales pack at hooker and has improved his lineout throws.

Adam Beard is missing Wyn Jones, Dafydd Jenkins is injured and Christ Tshiunza is slowly but surely living up to his athletic potential.

Aaron Wainwright is another player who has been promoted from squad player to starter, while the emergence of Jac Morgan has been a godsend following Sam Warburton, Josh Navidi and Ellis Jenkins.

The reality is that this is a team of about 6 or 7 out of 10 people. They sit 11th in the World Rugby rankings and while Ireland and South Africa argue over who is number one, Wales’ ranking is justified.

Since being eliminated in the quarterfinals by Argentina in 2023, Wales has lost once to Scotland (6th), once to England (7th), once to Ireland (3rd), once to France (4th), and once to Italy. Burn (10th), lost once to South Africa. (1st), Australia 2nd (8th), Queensland Reds and Fiji (9th).

Unfortunately for Wales fans, what game should they have won other than the tour match at Suncorp Stadium?

It is not unrealistic to think that with two more Tests against Australia and South Africa each, Wales could end 2024 without a single win.

Wales Matchday 23

Australian fans will be more familiar with this Welsh side than any other team they will face in this Autumn Nations series.

Gareth Thomas has been caught off guard and made his debut in 2021, with the 31-year-old now making 30 appearances. 12 tackles in 45 international minutes isn’t too shabby.

Dewi Lake’s strength is now central to this team and their 18/18 lineout is a great indicator that this Welsh side is solid, if not exciting.

Wales rugby coach Warren Gatland. (David Davies/PA via AP)

Archie Griffith has an impressive physical profile. He stands an impressive 6 feet 3 inches tall, weighs 124 kg and is only 23 years old. Ten tackles keep the tight end busy.

But all three front-line defenders were sent off in the 45th minute, a brave decision from Gatland. But his bench options don’t fill you with confidence.

Lake in particular had a deep performance in the final quarter of Wales’ game in Australia recently, so keep an eye on how the coach uses the bench this weekend.

They were in a position to win the match in the last minute with Fiji’s 22nd lineout. Elias, the replacement whore, was the one who coughed up the balls.

Will Rowlands and Beard in the second row now look like an international caliber combo. They had 25 tackles, two of which were deemed “dominant” and 17 carries, just what Gatland needed to act as a pillar on which to build.

Rowlands is 33 years old but is doing well in his role with Tshiunza waiting on the wing, or in this case on the bench.
James Botham got his chance to don the number 6 jersey despite a busy day at Taine Plumtree.

Morgan, who missed the July Tests, is back in the number 7 jersey and will be vital in preventing the Wallabies from freeing their hands after contact.

Wainwright made 22 meters from 11 carries, some of them serious hard yards. His experience captaining the side will help Lake have something to lean on.

At number 9, Ellis Bevan returns to replace Tomos Williams. His most memorable moment came while preparing for an attempt that was ultimately disallowed.

(Photo: Adam Pretty – World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)

Josua Tuisova’s pancake handoff didn’t make it onto the scoreboard, but it could have been Gatland’s. Gareth Anscombe continues World Rugby’s iconic jersey of number 10.

Anscombe has featured for Gloucester so far this season, and Australia’s drifting defense could give Anscombe space to play against Wales’ promising back three.

Jamie Roberts recently teased the next generation of centres, highlighting Eddie James and Max Llewellyn.

Llewellyn was given his chance last week and again, but instead he was joined by Ben Thomas, who recently started at 10 against Australia in the summer.

Their inexperience was especially evident in their defense against Fiji. However, Wales’ first try was a great carry from Llewellyn to Fiji’s 22.

Later in the stage, Thomas delivered an incredibly pressured pass horizontally to the Fiji line, with speed in the wider channel allowing Cameron Winnett to draw the rest of the Fiji defenders and pass the ball for Blair Murray to score on debut.

Hard carry by Llewellyn, ruck over. Tomos Williams, with a sharp skip pass, passed Wainwright to Anscombe, who ran at pace.

Anscombe skips over the next forward pod to find Thomas who passes to Grady, initially running a support line to Llewellyn’s carry and rounding the corner to correct Waisea Nayacalevu.

Grady does the simple thing well and passes to Winnett, who finishes in the corner for Murray.

If Australia give Wales space, they have the ability to score. The wider channel was a problem area for the Wallabies vs England.

Combine this with a 100% line-up and Wales have the potential to undercut Australia’s party.