Sri Lankans will vote on Saturday to elect the South Asian nation’s 10th president, the first election since the country defaulted on loans amid an economic crisis in 2022.
Months of food and fuel shortages led to political unrest, forcing then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country in July 2022.
Incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took over from Rajapaksa and has since tried to revive the economy, is seeking re-election. He is being challenged by Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP) Party and Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) Party.
Hear how the election is being fought, what the major candidates are promising, and what 22 million people are waiting for.
When does voting start in Sri Lanka?
Voting opens at 7 a.m. (01:30 GMT) on Saturday at 13,134 polling stations across the country. Polls close at 4 p.m. (10:30 GMT). Vote counting is scheduled to begin at 9:30 p.m. (16:00 GMT).
How are elections conducted in Sri Lanka?
- An independent body called the Election Commission of Sri Lanka (ECSL) oversees the elections.
- About 17 million of Sri Lanka’s 22 million people are eligible to vote. Any Sri Lankan citizen aged 18 or over who is registered with the Electoral Commission can vote.
- Police, military and other civil servants who cannot vote in person on election day vote in advance using postal ballots. This year, advance voting took place on September 11 and 12, according to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES).
- Voters list up to three candidates on their ballot in order of preference.
- A candidate must secure 50% of the first-preference vote to win the presidency in the first round.
- If no candidate gets 50% of the votes in the first round, a second round of voting will be held between the top two candidates from the first round. The other candidates will be eliminated.
- There will be no runoff election to determine the President. Instead, the second-preference ballots of the eliminated candidates will be considered. If the second-preference ballot is for one of the top two candidates, that preference will be counted.
- If one of the two remaining candidates is marked as third, the vote will be awarded to that candidate.
- According to the 19th Amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka, passed in 2015, the term of office of the President is five years and is limited to two terms.
Who are the leading candidates?
A total of 38 candidates are vying for the South Asian nation’s top job. The number of candidates was initially 39, but independent candidate Idroos Mohamed Ilyas died of a heart attack in August.
The leading candidates are:
Ranil WickremesingheA six-term prime minister, he took over as interim president in July 2022 after Rajapaksa stepped down. The 75-year-old is a member of the centre-right United National Party (UNP) but is running for the top job as an independent candidate.
Wickremesinghe is campaigning on the slogan “Puluwan Sri Lanka”, or “Sri Lanka can do it”, sending the message that he has pulled the country out of an economic crisis.
But while several economic indicators have improved (inflation has fallen dramatically and gross domestic product (GDP) has increased), Wickremesinghe has faced criticism from his opponents for belonging to the political elite blamed for the 2022 economic crisis. The incumbent president has been governing with the support of the Rajapaksa family’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party.
Critics say Wickremasinghe’s policies of cutting social welfare programs to balance the country’s finances have left the most vulnerable in Sri Lankan society bearing the brunt of the sacrifices needed for the country’s economic recovery.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake It originated from the Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), a Marxist party that gained popularity after the economic crisis in 2022.
But Dissanayake’s popularity has been on the rise since the massive protest movement known as Aragalaya (Sinhala for “struggle”) erupted against then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. Both were forced to resign.
Dissanayake, 55, has played an active role in the protest movement and has been a critic of Wickremesinghe’s $2.9 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which increased the cost of living for Sri Lankans.
The JVP party still plays a marginal role in Sri Lanka’s parliament, but Dissanayake’s popularity is soaring. At the heart of his political campaign is a promise to root out corruption, which seems to resonate with many segments of Sri Lankan society.
Sajith Premadasa After breaking away from Wickremesinghe’s UNP, he founded the populist Samaggi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Premadasa, the son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa, is currently the leader of the opposition in the Sri Lankan parliament.
Premadasa, a long-time rival of Wickremesinghe and the UNP, also ran for president in 2019 but lost to Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
His father, former president Premadasa, was assassinated by rebels from the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, a Tamil separatist group, in 1993. But Premadasa has tried in recent years to attract the country’s Tamil voters, who make up 11% of the Buddhist-majority country.
Illankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK), a prominent political party representing Tamils in the north and east, has supported opposition leader Premadasa. A significant number of Tamils voted for him in the 2019 elections.
Namal Rajapaksa He is the youngest candidate of the SLPP at 38 years old and is the eldest son of Mahinda Rajapaksa, who served as both president and prime minister of the country. He is the nephew of the deposed president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and claims to bring change. However, support for the Rajapaksa family has hit a low due to the economic turmoil in 2022.
Namal Rajapaksa served as the Minister of Youth Affairs and Sports during his uncle’s presidency from 2020 to 2022.
Although none of the 38 candidates are women, Sri Lanka did produce the world’s first female prime minister, Sirimavo Bandaranaike, in 1960.
Who’s leading in Sri Lankan opinion polls?
Polls suggest Dissanayake is likely to be the frontrunner.
This includes the Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), which has the leftist leader at 48%, followed by Premadasa at 25%. The incumbent Wickremesinghe is third at 20%. Namal Rajapaksa is far behind at 5%.
According to Numbers.Ik, a website that collects statistics on Sri Lanka, Dissanayake is leading with 40%, followed by Premadasa with 29% and Wickremesinghe with 25%. This is based on online data collected between September 9 and September 16.
What’s at stake?
The economy may be the biggest issue for Sri Lankans in the elections. The country’s economy has collapsed in 2022, inflation has soared to 70% and the currency has depreciated by 45%. For months, people have been waiting in long queues to get fuel, which has had a major impact on daily life.
Former President Rajapaksa’s economic policies and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic are believed to have contributed to the island nation’s worst economic crisis.
While some economic indicators have improved under Wickremasinghe’s government, critics say it has come at a cost. Taxes and electricity prices have risen as part of negotiations with international creditors due to the IMF loan.
“The erosion of socio-economic indicators such as food security and poverty rates seriously compromises the well-being and development of the people,” said Rajni Gamage of the National University of Singapore’s South Asian Institute.
Premadasa and Dissanayake both said they would continue with the IMF bailout negotiated with Wickremesinghe last year, but pledged to cut taxes and privatize. Premadasa told The Associated Press that he had already begun negotiations with the IMF to ease the tax burden on people.
This year, the minority vote could turn the election around, as it has in previous polls. The leading candidates are all Sinhalese, but voters come from a variety of communities, including Tamils, Moors, Muslims and Burghers.
Dissanayake’s campaign was built around rallying public support, but he said he had no regrets supporting the Rajapaksa government’s war against the Tamil Tigers, whose armed insurgency was crushed in 2009 under President Mahinda Rajapaksa after 26 years of rule.
Wickremesinghe, on the other hand, is trying to erode community support for Premadasa by appealing to Tamil politicians.
“One thing that’s really striking about this election is the lack of a strong ideological discourse between the three main candidates,” said Gamaji of the National University of Singapore.
“The divisive Sinhalese Buddhist nationalism that we saw in the 2019 elections is much weaker now,” she told Al Jazeera.
“If you look at the three leading candidates, there is some agreement that the current IMF programs should continue.
“There are small distinctions in how this is done – differences in governance metrics and the roles of markets and the state – but overall there is what we identify as a liberal consensus.”
When will the results be announced?
The National Election Commission has not given a specific date for the announcement of election results.
In the 2019 election, results were announced within a day of voting.
What happens if no one gets a majority?
In the last election, there were only two candidates competing fiercely. One candidate emerged as the clear winner, and second or third place was never considered.
With more candidates entering the race and three candidates receiving significant support, analysts say it is unlikely that any candidate will secure the 50% majority needed, which could lead to longer than usual voting.
