Will the National League Rookie of the Year be Paul Skenes or Jackson Merrill? Shohei Ohtani’s historic 2024 or Ronald Acuña’s 2023?
With a week left in the regular season, MLB on FOX analysts John Smoltz He offers his thoughts on baseball’s greatest awards and accomplishments, and even touches on some notorious records the White Sox would like to avoid.
As part of our weekly conversation with Hall of Fame pitchers, Smoltz also shared his favorite rotation picks and more as we head into the playoffs.
Kavner: What are you looking at? Shohei Otani He achieved a 50/50 record this season, Ronald Acuna There are two things I accomplished to get to 40/70 last season, which do you think is more impressive?
Smoltz: To be honest, it’s a good question. When stealing is part of the game, it’s more impressive when you combine stealing with power. What I’m saying is that I’ve seen too many instances where power comes first and then stealing comes later and it becomes something unique.
I don’t like to try too hard to equalize a certain number once I get to that number, and that usually comes down to stolen bases. So when you have 70 stolen bases, that’s part of your game, it’s what makes you special, and a home run makes it twice as special.
So, it’s probably crazy to say that 50/50 isn’t more impressive. But we’re never going to see that again. So, if we’re never going to see that again, because the guy’s never going to do it again. It’s not because he can’t hit 50 home runs, it’s just because — (50 stolen bases) aren’t going to be part of their game in the future. So, 40/70 is something that’s going to be part of their game in the future.
Kavner: Yes, and you’re probably implying that I have doubts. Dodgers If Ohtani pitches every week, he’ll allow 50 stolen bases again.
Smoltz: And my point is that you can steal a base that doesn’t help the team. You can steal a base when you’re up six runs. What does that do? If you can steal a base when the game is tied or down one run, that helps the team, and I like that.
But if you get it for the numbers, you’ll see a steal that happens on third base with two outs that doesn’t matter. There’s an easy way to make statistics look cool. I’m just saying, I’m a fan of statistics that help teams win and win baseball games. That’s what I’m saying.
(relevant: How Shohei Ohtani Lost Half His Power But Rewrote MLB History and Achieved 50/50)
Can do: Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill The National League Rookie of the Year race has been fiercely contested for some time. You can also add: Jackson ChorioHe’s an unbelievably good player in the second half. Who will be the NL Rookie of the Year?
Smoltz: I’m biased towards pitchers, but I’m a little biased towards Merrill. He’s an everyday player, and he helped the Padres pull off the biggest shocker and win the division. They’re in the playoffs, they’re going to be a very tough opponent, and he’s had some incredible second-half heroics. He’s an everyday player in a league that, as we just mentioned, is very hard to hit for.
If you have a hitter like that as a rookie, it’s probably a little bit of an advantage for him, no matter how great Skens is. Skens had a great season in every way. He deserves to be a Rookie of the Year, and he’ll be a Cy Young Award winner in the future, and he’ll win the Cy Young Award. It’ll be interesting to see how the voting goes.
Kavner: Who would you consider the AL Rookie of the Year?
Smoltz: That’s a tough question. I’d say Luis Gil and what he did as a pitcher in New York. You could make the same argument about Austin Wells, but I’d give the nod to Gil. The Yankees were really short on starting pitching without Gerrit Cole for a long time. Gil provided stability and dominance in that league, in that division, and he’s probably better than the other candidates.
So, now I’m making the case against pitchers in the American League. It’s the opposite of the position player argument. Especially in New York. It’s a little bit easier to hit and hit for power in New York. But I’m going to make the case against the American League in this case because of how special Gil was for the New York Yankees for so long.
Kavner: White Sox Probably the most losing team in modern MLB history. Is this the worst team you remember?
Smoltz: Paying attention to the worst teams is probably not my biggest priority, but the Tigers were pretty bad in 2003. I don’t know much about the ’62 Mets other than what I saw in the record books.
When you talk about the times in baseball these days – again, like it or not, this is kind of a model for rebuilding a franchise – I don’t believe it’s a good model. But that’s what people are trying to convince the fan base about. We have to strip this down. We have to rebuild the farm system. We’re going to attract all kinds of prospects. We’re going to make trades.
I don’t think it’s a great formula, but that’s what we have today. So, by their formula, they’re pretty good at stripping it down, and they’re not that great. Now, the question is, can they do what the Houston Astros did? Can they do what the Chicago Cubs did? People forget how long that franchise held out before they won a World Series championship. I think that’s a lot to sell. I think I’m going to have a hard time selling my fan base, “Be patient, stay there for seven years and watch us lose, because that’s the model we’re going to have.”
I think every case is a little bit different. I don’t know if you can call them the worst team ever because they’ve sold off some pieces and they’ve had some pretty good players. I think Chicago’s future is a little bit brighter and it won’t take seven years to rebuild like we’ve seen in other cases.
Kavner: Which team do you think has the best starting rotation heading into the postseason?
Smoltz: Well, my favorite team would be the healthiest team. I may not be able to settle on that team right now, but I would argue that these two teams are the same team. The Philadelphia Phillies. They’ve had four dynamic pitchers and five really good pitchers all year. They’ve had a couple hiccups, and a few of them have had injuries.
Of course, the Braves are not far behind, and the others can certainly be. But the Phillies are the healthiest rotation right now to me. They have weapons up front, and the first two guys create all kinds of challenges. Zack Wheeler is a star, he’s been there, done that. Aaron Nola is back in the groove, and he’s mechanically sound. And then you have Christopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez. I think the Phillies and their experience give them an advantage over most rotations that are out there right now.
If you told me the Baltimore Orioles would have a healthy rotation, think of me like that. They’ve had injuries and they’re just a shell of themselves. You see teams really struggling. The LA Dodgers, if they’re healthy, have a dynamic rotation, and they’re just a shell of themselves. The Houston Astros, if you think about what their roster could be, I thought it was the most complete roster. They’ve had so many injuries that they’ve been unable to be fixed to some extent.
So there will be injuries, and clubs that have to mobilize 12 players can also expect their pitching staff to perform well.
Kavner: Let’s end with two of the best things about the game. If I were to go into a hypothetical 7th game right now and choose where to start, Chris Sale or Unlock the scubaWho would you choose?
Smoltz: Wow. Tarik Skubal right now is because he’s younger. Chris Sale is great, but this year, with injuries and not having a good season for a long time, he’s doing a great job. All the credit in the world to him, he probably pitched excitedly at times, and he probably pitches excitedly now. He knows how to pitch, and he’s definitely a bad pitcher.
Now, if you give me a completely healthy Sail and no issues and a completely healthy Skubal, I might have to pick Sail. But right now, in my gut, like Tarik did, he’s been phenomenal. That’s an unbelievable weapon for the Tigers right now.
John SmoltzA first-ballot member of the Baseball Hall of Fame, eight-time All-Star, National League Cy Young Award winner, and lead game analyst for FOX MLB, Smoltz is in the booth for all postseason matchups, including the All-Star Game and Division Series, League Championship Series, and World Series assignments.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the LA Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU graduate, Rowan was born in California, raised in Texas and returned to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter. @RowanKabner.
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