The NFL’s Thanksgiving schedule features three-quarters of a division in what could be the most dominant division since the league realigned in 2002.
The 2024 NFC North is the first division since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to feature three teams with at least eight wins through Week 12, led by the Detroit Lions, who are 10-1 and tied for the most wins in NFL history. Recorded. Minimum 38 point differential on season (3 points, all outside division)
The 9-10 will also be included in the 2024 NFC North as the Lions face division rival Chicago Bears (4-7) in an early game Thursday, before the 8-3 Green Bay Packers face the AFC East’s Miami Dolphins in the second half. 2 Minnesota Vikings — Stands out. You might even decide who takes home the Lombardi Trophy.
The Lions (+260), Packers (+750) and Vikings (+850) are among the top seven Super Bowl odds per BetMGM, along with the Philadelphia Eagles (+325) in the top four for NFC championship odds. ). The Lions remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl, comfortably ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs (+450), and the NFC North has the shortest odds of producing a champion at +175, half that of the second-place AFC West (+350).
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The chart below shows the rankings of all eight divisions each season since the league realigned in 2002, based on point margin per game (X-axis) and winning percentage (Y-axis) of non-division games through the first 12 weeks of each season. According to TruMedia, the 2024 NFC North (red dot) ranks first in average point margin (+9.5) and second in winning percentage (.765) among 184 divisional seasons.
Only the 2022 NFC East (26-7) had a better record than the 2024 NFC North (26-8) in non-division games through Week 12, but the NFC North currently has a much better average scoring margin (+9.5~+). Recorded. 5.1) In this game.
Here’s what you need to know about where the NFC North stands and what it needs to do to become the most dominant division for the entire season after realignment.
1. The NFC North is the most dominant division this season.
Scheduling rotation, as we’ll see later, is part of the equation, but this level of dominance is extreme.
2024 non-division match scorecard
| division | W.L. | Point margin |
|---|---|---|
|
NFC North |
26-8 (.765) |
+323 |
|
AFC West |
19-12 (.613) |
+74 |
|
AFC North |
17-16 (.515) |
+56 |
|
NFC West |
15-15 (.500) |
-33 |
|
NFC East |
15-16 (.484) |
-33 |
|
AFC East |
13-18 (.419) |
-38 |
|
NFC South |
10-18 (.357) |
-138 |
|
AFC South |
11-23 (.324) |
-211 |
The AFC North team currently has a total win total against an opponent that holds a winning record (11) and a total non-division win in those games (9). The NFC North is in second place with eight and six.
Since 2002, the NFC North’s +323-point margin over second-place 2013 NFC West (+259) by 64 points in Week 12. That’s larger than the gap between the NFC West and the sixth-place division in 2013. Span, 2011 NFC North (+200). The table below shows the only division since 2002 to have a PPG margin greater than 7.0 through Week 12, led by the 2024 NFC North.
2002-24 Undivided PPG Margin (Weeks 1-12)
| division | W.L. | PPG Margin |
|---|---|---|
|
2024 NFC North |
26-8 (.765) |
+9.5 |
|
2013 NFC West |
23-9 (.719) |
+8.1 |
|
2002 NFC South |
17-8-1 (.673) |
+7.3 |
|
2008 NFC South |
22-8 (.733) |
+7.2 |
|
2011 NFC North |
19-9 (.679) |
+7.1 |
|
2005 AFC West |
20-10 (.667) |
+7.1 |
2. The key to the NFC North’s dominance of its non-split schedule was its strong defense.
The 2024 NFC North ranks first among 184 divisions since 2002 in defensive EPA per play against non-division opponents, while ranking 69th in offensive EPA per play.
| Non-sector categories | 2024 NFC North | 184th |
|---|---|---|
|
W.L. |
26-8 (.765) |
2 |
|
PPG |
26.1 |
16 |
|
PPG allowed |
16.6 |
2 |
|
PPG differential |
+9.5 |
1 |
|
Score differential/play |
+4.86 |
1 |
|
OFF EPA/Play |
+0.013 |
69 |
|
DEF EPA/Regeneration |
+0.148 |
1 |
All four NFC North teams have ranked in the NFL’s top 10 in defensive EPA per play in every game this season. Considering only non-division games, they are all ranked in the top five. The Lions and Packers also rank in the top 10 in offense in every game and non-division game.
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3. Dominating the weak AFC South accounts for 61% of the NFC North’s +323 point differential in non-division games.
NFC North teams are 8-0 with a +144 margin against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. They are 14-2 against the entire AFC South by a +197 margin. Bad teams get blown away. The NFC North has done its part.
2024 NFC North Non-Split Scorecard
In non-division games, 45% of the +323 differential comes against the Jaguars and Titans, and 61% comes against the AFC South as a whole.
The other six divisions are a combined 9-9 against the AFC South, a +14 advantage. That includes a 6-7 mark by AFC East teams by +21.
4. The NFC North holds a 6-4 record against non-division opponents with winning records through Week 12. The full record is below:
The Bears are currently the only NFC North team that has not beaten a team with a winning record. They are 0-3 in this matchup, headlined by a loss at Washington in the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary. The rest of the NFC North has a 6-1 record in those games, with three wins over Houston, two against Arizona, and one against Seattle.
The 2024 NFC North vs. teams are now over .500.
| NFC North Team | main-offer | result | Point margin |
|---|---|---|---|
|
3-New |
W, 34-7 |
+27 |
|
|
6-AZ |
W, 34-13 |
+21 |
|
|
4-year |
W, 42-29 |
+13 |
|
|
3-AZ |
Win, 20-13 |
+7 |
|
|
10-New |
W, 26-23 |
+3 |
|
|
7-New |
W, 24-22 |
+2 |
|
|
8-WAS |
L, 18-15 |
-3 |
|
|
1-PHI |
L, 34-29 |
-5 |
|
|
2-New |
L, 19-13 |
-6 |
|
|
9-AZ |
L, 29-9 |
-20 |
If we adjust the parameters to provide non-division games against teams with winning records at kickoff, the NFC North’s record would be 6-3. Wins over Dallas, San Francisco and Tampa Bay begin.
5. NFC North teams will play 10 more games against non-division opponents this season. Here’s what the sector needs to do to become the most dominant sector since 2002.
The NFL pushes most divisional games later in the season for competitive reasons. That leaves just 10 non-split games that could either lead the NFC North or drop them in the standings. Those games are listed in chronological order below, with point spreads pulled together from various sources when available.
Remaining non-division opponents
| NFC North Team | main | point spread |
|---|---|---|
|
13 |
-3.5 (compared to AZ) |
|
|
13 |
-3 (compared to MIA) |
|
|
14 |
+6.5 (in SF) |
|
|
14 |
-5.5 (compared to ATL) |
|
|
15 |
-2 (relative to BUF) |
|
|
15 |
-1 (in SEA) |
|
|
16 |
+2 (at sea) |
|
|
16 |
-5 (compared to no) |
|
|
17 |
+3.5 (in SEA) |
|
|
17 |
-5 (in SF) |
The 2013 NFC North holds the all-season record for PPG margin against non-division opponents since realignment (+359 in 40 games, 8.975 per game). The division included the 13-3 Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the Jim Harbaugh-coached 49ers (12-4), the Bruce Arians-coached Cardinals (10-6) and the 7-9 Rams.
An NFC North team will need to outscore its remaining 10 non-division opponents by 72 points to win the NFC West in 2013 by its best full-season margin since 2002. That leaves the division at +395 in 44 games, leaving a +8.977 PPG differential.
The best full-season record against non-division opponents since 2002 is shared by the 2013 NFC West and 2007 NFC South at 30-10 (.750). The NFC North (now .765 at 26-8) is on par with finishing 7-3 against opponents from outside the division.
The best team in the NFC North (Detroit) will face the toughest opponent in the division (Buffalo). The Seahawks’ recent defensive improvements could complicate Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay’s efforts to win in Seattle. The 49ers’ decline could help Chicago (Week 14) and Detroit (Week 17).
Green Bay and Minnesota can set the tone in Week 13. Both are favored at home against non-division opponents.
(Photo by Josh Jacobs, center, and three Lions defenders: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
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