The appointment of former Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kalas as the new High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (HRVP) is undoubtedly a firm indication that countering Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is the EU’s top priority. In Georgia, another key Eastern Partnership country that was the first victim of Russian aggression in 2008, Ms Kalas will have to deal with the growing Russian influence and the transformation of Georgia into a Russian vassal state against the will of its people.
A Russian political victory in Georgia, which seems closer than most people thought, would be a major blow to EU interests and a tragedy for the Georgian people who have repeatedly and unequivocally expressed their European aspirations. The new HRVP will have to focus not only on how to prevent this catastrophe personally, but also on restoring strong political control over the European External Action Service (EEAS) bureaucracy, which has often been a key enabler of Russian influence in Georgia.
The stakes could not be higher. While it would be disastrous in itself for Georgia to become a Russian satellite, the EU’s efforts to build relations with Western Armenia would also be undermined if the Georgian people do not help reverse this decline.
The recently adopted “foreign influence” law by Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party is a direct copy of the brutal Russian laws that the Putin regime used to dismantle Russian civil society, leaving no room for doubt that it is a triumph for the Kremlin. Russian leaders, including Vladimir Putin himself, have enthusiastically supported the Georgian Dream law or the Georgian Dream in some form in the face of Western criticism.
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But the EEAS, headed by Ms. Kallas, has continued to pursue business as usual with the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili and his cronies, the puppets of the Georgian dream, as long as possible, despite repeated red flags raised by the Georgian dream, thereby enabling Georgia’s democratic retreat and drift towards Russia.
Our goal now and the goal of the Georgian people is to prevent this and avoid the final catastrophe of the rapid but imminent “Belarusization” of Georgia. We are convinced that this is exactly what Mrs. Kallas wants.
No one in Western capitals, especially Brussels, should be under the illusion that much worse is in store for Georgia and the EU unless significant costs are imposed on Mr. Ivanishvili and his puppets. Almost every Georgian civil society organization that refuses to register in the Kremlin-style register is in imminent danger of being shut down. In his April 29 anti-Western manifesto, Ivanishvili announced a massive crackdown that will almost certainly include mass prosecutions, arrests, and even violence.
Georgia’s election monitoring institutions will almost certainly be dismantled, international monitoring of the upcoming October elections will have limited relevance, and the elections themselves will be under threat. The Belarusization of Georgia will take a further step towards turning it into a Kremlin vassal state.
In fact, the Ivanishvili regime has been using the Kremlin’s tactics for quite some time, including using gangs of thugs (often wrestlers) intermixed with the police to attack and brutally beat dissidents, especially near their homes and in front of their children.
How did this disaster happen in the first place? Shouldn’t Georgia be at the forefront of the Eastern Partnership?
Many of us have been warning for years about Georgia’s slide into the Kremlin’s orbit, which is closely linked to a retreat in democracy. These concerns have often been underestimated by officials at various levels. A 2013 report by Thomas Hammarberg, the EU’s Special Adviser on Constitutional and Legal Reform, ignored and even denied the advancement of selective justice under the Georgian Dream government, and was extremely damaging at a time when more could have been done.
Too many people have been eager to turn a blind eye and declare their work a “success.” In a 2016 meeting with a group of visiting MEPs, Janos Herman, then the EU ambassador to Georgia, played down concerns about Ivanishvili’s pro-Russian leanings, defended his record and intentions, and asked that Ivanishvili not be called an oligarch. Instead, he said, he should be called an “enlightened patriotic giant.” He also defended the controversial law that Georgian Dream used to hijack the then-independent and respected Georgian Constitutional Court.
Unfortunately, this is just one example of how ignorance is slowly leading Georgia to disaster, but it is certainly not the only one.
Our goal now, and the goal of the Georgian people, is to prevent this and to avoid the final catastrophe of the rapid and imminent “Belarusization” of Georgia. We are convinced that this is exactly what Mrs. Kallas wants. To do this, the legitimate influence of the West, and especially the EU, must be used immediately, and the most powerful political oversight at the highest level must be returned to the Georgian file in Brussels. Not imposing costs on those who led the drive to bring Georgia into the hands of the Kremlin is not pragmatic, but rather fostering a much bigger problem.
The US has imposed travel restrictions on these individuals and their families, but failing to comply directly encourages more militants to the Georgian Dream. Hungary will likely block similar sanctions, but as the Russian sanctions ordeal has shown, the EU can avoid being held hostage by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and the Commission has quite a few administrative tools at its disposal. The stakes are too high, and as has been shown in numerous previous cases, doing nothing is a terrible policy.
The Georgian people have demonstrated determination, non-violent discipline, commitment to European ideals, and resistance to the Kremlin’s oppressive influence.
Now is the time for Europe to respond, stand up for democracy and the rule of law, and allow Georgia to remain a candidate for EU membership.
