Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
When the MLB regular season began in late March, Paul Skenes was not yet on the Pittsburgh Pirates’ roster. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft was coming from Triple-A Indianapolis.
So he wasn’t a major factor in the NL Rookie of the Year odds, and he wasn’t even considered for the NL Cy Young Award odds.
But since his promotion to Pittsburgh on May 11, Skenes has been so dominant that he could potentially win both awards.
“It’s incredible how quickly Skenes has become one of the best pitchers in baseball,” said BetMGM trader and baseball enthusiast Hal Egeland.
Egeland talked about Skenes’ excellent first season and how it affected his chances for National League Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year.
Runaway Favorite
A few months ago, when the NL Rookie of the Year odds first came up, Skenes was the +1300 No. 5 pick. LA Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto was a +210 favorite. Skenes was down to +900 in the preseason, but was pushed back significantly when he wasn’t included on the Opening Day roster.
“At one point, the odds were up to +3000. Every time he doesn’t start in the majors, from our perspective, his chances of winning go down,” Egeland said. “But once it became clear he was going to be called up, we got him down closer to his opening odds of +1100.”
Since his May call-up, Skenes has gone 6-1 with a 1.99 ERA in 14 starts. Pittsburgh is 9-5 with Skenes on the mound, and the youngster has already struck out 107 batters to just 19 walks.
With those numbers and more in mind, BetMGM has Skenes as the favorite for NL Rookie of the Year odds. He’s currently at -3000, meaning you’d have to wager $3,000 to win $100 (a total payout of $3,100). So congrats to everyone who jumped on the +3000 bet when it only took $100 to win $3,000 (again, a total payout of $3,100).
“Barring injuries or (the Giants’) Tyler Fitzgerald continuing his Barry Bonds-like streak, Rookie of the Year is a lock,” Egeland said. “If Skenes continues to be dominant in his next start or two, I wouldn’t be surprised if the job is gone.
“His last start was one of his worst starts, he gave up two runs. If that’s a bad start for him, there’s no real contender for Rookie of the Year.”
Double it
On May 10, when it became clear that the Pirates would call up Skenes, BetMGM thought, why not post him in the NL Cy Young odds market too? What the risk room didn’t anticipate was that Skenes would soar so high.
“We opened him at +20,000 (200/1). It seems crazy now, but at the time, we didn’t think it was,” Egeland said. “He’s a rookie who’s not going to throw as many innings as some of the other candidates, and he’s going to a lower league team that can control innings, at least at the time. That’s how valuable he is to the future of the Pirates.”
If you were able to ignore those factors and bet on Skenes, you would have a very good ticket right now. A $100 bet on Skenes at +20000 would pay $20,000 if Skenes wins the NL Cy Young Award.
Fast forward to today, and Skenes is now the second-best odds-on favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award. He’s +185, behind Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale, who is the favorite at +115. So betting on Skenes now wouldn’t have been worth it on May 10 or even a month ago. A $100 bet today would only return $185 (a total payout of $285).
Egeland acknowledged that Skenes’ quick rise to both Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Awards was challenging BetMGM’s risk room.
“We have to evaluate how much action comes in from external factors and performance on the field. It’s tough from a trading/risk standpoint,” Egeland said. “Rookie of the Year is always a tricky thing to trade. It’s all about predictions, and it’s especially hard when you don’t have major league data and it’s uncertain when a player will be on the roster.
“Skenes may be the exact same player, but if he had been drafted a month later, he wouldn’t have been in the Cy Young discussion, and the Rookie of the Year award would have been more competitive.”
Sheder vs Skenes
Egeland didn’t have to look far to find a similar betting phenomenon.
“Obviously, there was a ton of hype around Skenes because of his accomplishments, but there was an added interest in him as a social media story,” Egeland said. “The best comparison I can think of is Shedeur Sanders winning the Heisman Trophy.”
Early last season, Sanders soared up the Heisman Trophy odds board as the Colorado Buffaloes quarterback. But Sanders and the Buffaloes fell into a slump late in the season as Colorado finished 4-8.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, sits at .500, but Skines has at least gotten the Pirates closer to the National League wild card race.
“We were going to bet on Skenes so when he got off to a hot start it really kicked off,” Egeland said. “The difference between Sanders and Skenes is that Skenes had consistent success.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst and senior reporter for FOX Sports. VegasInsider.com. He previously worked at Covers. Follow him on Twitter @Patrick E Vegas.
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