The new year begins with another development in the Ukraine-Russia war, Europe’s gas war. Before Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it was the EU’s largest supplier of natural gas. According to the European Council, the EU (and the wider European bloc) will accordingly reduce Russia’s share of imports from more than 40% in 2021 to 8% in 2023. To fill the energy gap, Europe has imported more liquefied natural gas (LNG) via seaborne tankers from the United States and other countries, and pipeline gas from countries such as Norway. The EU has also temporarily increased imports of Russian LNG, but the EU has set a self-imposed deadline of 2027 for the withdrawal of all Russian fossil fuels.
As Ukraine has become a victim of Putin’s energy-centric attacks, the president’s decision to block Russian gas pipelines passing through Ukraine has created a moral dilemma in Kiev. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the move “one of Moscow’s greatest defeats… turning energy into a weapon and engaging in cynical energy blackmail against our partners.” Ukrainian Energy Minister Halushchenko described the disruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe as a “historic event.” Russia will lose markets and suffer financial losses… But there are inevitable human consequences of this gas war.
The European Commission said the EU was prepared for a suspension. “European gas infrastructure is flexible enough to supply non-Russian gas,” a commission spokesman said. “This has been strengthened by significant new LNG import capacity from 2022.” But vast swaths of Europe are deprived of energy after Russian gas stopped flowing through Ukraine. The countries immediately affected were Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Moldova, and (ironically) Russian-controlled Transnistria. The fact that several EU countries are dependent on Russian gas indicates the greater geopolitical risk posed by the war in Ukraine. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico appealed to the EU to find a way to keep Russian gas flowing through Ukraine. Now Europe is also facing an energy crisis as armed conflict expands to the following countries: in fact It was gas.
Many other EU countries have already cut off piped gas supplies from Russia, but Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Moldova and Transnistria have become even more dependent. The cutoff of free gas supplies from Gazprom has paralyzed Transnistria, which had supported its sluggish economy. Landlocked Transnistria, officially known as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic or Pridnestrovie, is an independent state internationally recognized as a component of Moldova. Ahead of the gas cutoff, Transnistria declared a 30-day economic emergency amid fears of a full-blown energy crisis. In early 2025, gas supplier Tirasteploenergo informed Transnistrian residents that all supplies would be cut off. With little central energy, the Transnistrian hospital system now relies on generators. So while hospitals and critical infrastructure have succeeded in holding together temporary power, Transnistria’s population (475,000 at the 2015 census) remains at risk.
As might be expected, the tone of the response was critical of President Zelenskyy. One of the Pridnestrovian spokespeople told me this:
We all watched with pity as military operations in Ukraine resulted in many casualties. We too have experienced cold winds due to security activities near the border. Now, thanks to President Zelenskyy’s decision not to renew our long-standing contract with Moscow, our Republic of Pridnestrovia-Moldova is suffering even more as it loses most of its energy supplies. Just before midnight in the morning of 2025 according to the Western calendar, we lost virtually all of our gas, causing a significant loss of power. This puts hospitals and civil society at dangerous risk, and many elderly and sick people will die in the cold. This shows that Ukraine affects everyone, and that Zelensky, who claims to be a humanitarian, might have been better suited to consider the human needs of many parts of Europe affected by this imprudent action. Now we must work with the republic’s energy supplier, Tirasteploenergo, to help residents stay warm in the sub-zero temperatures of the city of Tiraspol and even colder temperatures in isolated areas of the Republic of Moldova, Pridnestrovia.
The situation is also critical elsewhere where Russian gas is cheap but not free. In Slovakia, no government member could be reached for comment, but as expected, an opposition member of parliament told me (privately) that the government was deeply shaken by the crisis.
We are the latest victims of the Ukraine crisis. We’ve relied on these pipelines for a long time, and the loss of energy has taken a toll on everyone. We have long urged governments to embrace geopolitical vulnerability, which has long been seen as cheap but frankly politically unreliable. This is proof that we have been telling the government that we need real alternatives, not just talk. We need action now. It was foolish for the government to expose us to Moscow. Now comes the worst prediction. It was clear that President Zelenskyy had to make this decision, but our government did nothing to prepare for the inevitable. But they will still find the energy to heat up Congress. As always, it is the common people who are harmed by this government.
In Moldova, which has been affected as a result of this gas war, there has been no shortage of government and opposition lawmakers trying to raise concerns about how gas cuts will affect the country, but no one has wanted to go on the record. Moldova also declared a 60-day state of emergency as the landlocked country remains dependent on gas from Transnistria. A leading opposition member agreed to say a few words off camera.
We are now heading into the most miserable months Moldova has ever faced due to power loss. This shows how poor the government’s plan was without a Plan B, even though World and his wife knew this would cause collateral damage to the war. What else will President Zelenskyy do? But now much of Europe is trapped in an energy crisis. I’m starting to think that President Putin is dragging us back to the Stone Age. I think of all the sick, elderly and disabled people sitting around trying to stay warm. The Ukraine conflict is a beastly return to medieval warfare, freezing and starving the enemy. A winter like this one has never been seen before in Chisinau and is still a rarity even in Moldova’s poorest regions.
The cutting of the pipeline between Russia and Ukraine comes at a time when President Zelenskyy is under growing pressure to negotiate an end to hostilities after military setbacks in the east. Zelensky’s actions on war and resources both involve moral compromises, but he has so far maintained Ukraine’s steadfast support. There are also concerns that Donald Trump will withdraw U.S. support after taking office as president. As for Ukraine’s own crisis, Ukraine could rely on its own fossil fuel production and storage to increase its own gas demand after the blockade. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the expected cold winters are likely to increase. How much gas Ukraine will have to import due to reduced supplies from the EU. Transnistria is all but shut down. Winter weather will inevitably increase demand, making conflict over gas a more serious feature of how this war unfolds.
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