In August 2024, Brazil and China celebrated the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. Arguably, these are the two most important economies of the western and eastern hemispheres, respectively. And although the relationship has not always been incredibly important, over the past two decades both countries have found ways to deepen the interaction between private and public actors. In fact, Brazilian President Lula has been working to further strengthen relations with China since taking power in early 2023. He visited the Asian giant with a large delegation of politicians and business executives. Relations between the two countries have grown further through additional meetings, including the important BRICS summit held in South Africa last year. Now that Brazil is scheduled to host the 19th G20 meeting in Rio next month, President Lula and President Xi Jinping will have the opportunity to discuss the next steps in what many see as one of the most promising bilateral relations in today’s complex global scenario. no see.
After a dramatic political crisis that swept his country in the middle of the last decade, Lula, a former metal worker who became president, managed to win a third presidential term. Brazil continues to be divided politically and ideologically, but Lula has sought to revive the diplomatic approach that served him well during his first two terms. We look for ways to strengthen our connections and projects with new markets, countries and organizations. In this context, and based on Lula’s vision and diplomatic ambitions, deepening relations with China becomes key. This is because it offers the possibility of strengthening the economic relations that have helped sustain the Brazilian economy over the past two decades, while at the same time strengthening multilateral projects aimed at reorganizing the country. Liberal order such as the New Development Bank (NDB)
The upcoming G20 meeting will indeed provide an opportunity to expand China-Brazil relations. In addition to the Rio summit, Lula and Xi are scheduled to hold bilateral talks in Brasilia, and the two appear eager to announce new projects in common. I don’t know the details of this, but when I took on the group’s leadership role about a year ago, Lula was committed to: (a) reducing world hunger, (b) accelerating a vigorous transition to a more sustainable development model, and (c) developing countries. Reform the current form of multilateral institutions such as the IMF and UNSC to ensure better representation. In all three areas, Chinese leaders can provide important political support and qualified skills. Likewise, Chinese authorities have signaled that Lula’s priorities in the G20 leadership are consistent with President Xi Jinping’s vision for building a community of shared future.
Besides potential cooperation within the multilateral framework of the G20, Brazil and China have many other areas where relations could be strengthened and new projects could potentially emerge. In 2023, trade between the two countries will reach $157 billion, exceeding the combined amount of Brazil’s sales to the United States and the European Union (104 billion). According to the China-Brazil Business Council (CBBC), Brazil ranks fourth in China’s overseas investment, accounting for 4.8% of global investment. These investments are central to the infrastructure modernization goals Lula has sought to revive under its Growth Acceleration Program.Growth Acceleration Program — PAC) and the recently announced Brazilian New Industries Program (new industry brazil).
In Brazil, there is indeed great interest in how Chinese investment can help reindustrialize Latin America’s still largest but increasingly smaller industrial economy. Although trade between the two countries has increased 35-fold over the past 23 years, there is an imbalance between the types of items exported by both sides. These are mainly exported from Brazil to China and mostly industrialized from China to Brazil. Lula has said he wants to change this, and Chinese authorities have signaled they are open to discussing the issue. Senior Brazilian officials are heading to China to discuss details of plans to be announced in bilateral talks, but it is still unclear whether these projects are necessarily premised on the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Brazil has not yet accepted participation in the plan, but Lula recently said the country should take a closer look at the proposal, leading to speculation that a major announcement on the subject will be made during President Xi Jinping’s visit. But there are still no clear signs that Lula has made up his mind. Some in Brazil, especially the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, are reluctant about the benefits of joining the BRI. Since China is already investing significantly in infrastructure projects in Brazil, it means ‘choose China’s side’, especially if Trump returns to the White House next year. Other voices defending the idea of joining, particularly those close to Lula, including influential former Foreign Minister Celso Amorim, point out that BRI goes beyond pure investment and includes access to a full platform of international cooperation between countries around the world. earth. The latter position appears to be gaining ground in Brazil, but Lula appears to be hedging his bets, waiting for China to offer something different with an invitation. It also supports Brazil’s new industrial plans at home and regional infrastructure projects linking South American countries. Chinese authorities appear likely to consider Brazil’s demands closely, as securing Brazil’s approval would provide a much-needed boost to the BRI, which has faced resistance in Europe and the United States due to geopolitical concerns.
Cooperation between the two countries goes beyond trade and extends to technological cooperation in the fields of satellite (Earth Resources Satellite Project), artificial intelligence, semiconductors, communications (5G), and new and renewable energy. President Xi Jinping recently stated that he sees the future of China-Brazil relations as a rapid shift into new, more technologically advanced areas, and in line with Brazil’s wishes, sees the BRI as an important tool in Brazil’s ongoing reindustrialization efforts. Likewise, he affirmed Lula’s hopes of expanding the ‘person-to-person’ dimension of quantum interaction. This indicates that both governments are encouraging greater exchanges between the peoples of Brazil and China.
Beyond the G20 sphere and the bilateral sphere, China-Brazil cooperation has taken place in the context of BRICS, particularly with regard to coordinating new efforts to reform existing global financial and monetary structures. In fact, during the BRICS meeting held in South Africa last year, there was a lot of discussion in the media about a proposal by each department in China and Brazil to expand the number of member countries. On the issues facing the organization (such as defending reforms in multilateral political and financial organizations toward a greater presence of members of the Global South), there was more agreement than dispute between the two countries.
China-Brazil relations appear poised to expand into other areas. The need for diversification is especially important for Brazil, which wants to negotiate high-value products. Nonetheless, it is also becoming a key element of China’s diplomacy toward Brazil. But we must never forget that this is not a balanced interaction, nor is it likely to be a balanced interaction. China has achieved global power status, and Brazil remains a promising emerging economy and, at best, a regional power.
Despite growing interest in integrated cooperation between the two sides, Brazil’s Lula said new bilateral projects must include technology transfers and ensure they do not create new negative environmental and social impacts. Brazil’s reindustrialization goals, especially as they unfold in sustainable energy projects, could prove to be one of the most beneficial, feasible and mutually beneficial pathways. Cooperation in the field of global health also appears promising as a venue for exchange between the two countries. China has played an important role in resolving Brazil’s coronavirus crisis, suggesting that the two countries should pursue cooperation in this area as well.
Fifty years of China-Brazil relations represent not only a story of economic success, but also a geopolitical convergence that has overcome challenges along the way and is now gaining ground. While more dynamic and multidimensional partnerships between countries seem possible and desirable, it is essential that domestic and equitable global engagement guide such efforts. If Chinese and Brazilian leaders find ways to work together for a common future, much could come out of the upcoming meeting between the two presidents. All eyes will be on Rio and Brasilia next month as decisions are likely to affect the future of both major countries.
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