No New York Republican in a crucial House race will speak at former President Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, according to a list of speakers released by his campaign.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) is the only Empire State representative included in the lineup. But polling projections from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) give her a 99% chance of winning the state’s 21st District.
While all of New York will likely comfortably vote for Vice President Harris in November, there are six important House races (1st, 4th, 17th, 18th) that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the House after November. , 19, and 22 districts). , according to the New York Times.
A recent poll found Harris with a double-digit lead over Trump among Empire State voters, 58% to 39%. 6 points is an increase from September.
But Trump appears to have targeted the deep blue state, making several campaign stops in New York, which has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Republicans pointed to the underlying reason for his visit there. That means supporting four key Republicans in the House race: Rep. Mike Lawler, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, Rep. Marc Molinaro, and Rep. Brandon Williams.
Earlier this week, in District 17, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the race toward incumbent Lawler, who is running a costly race against Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones, who has raised more money than any other Democratic candidate in New York.
In District 17, The Hill/DDHQ poll projections give Jones and Lawler each a 50% chance of winning. But some of the New York House races aren’t quite as close.
In District 1, incumbent Rep. Nick Lalota (R) has an 80% chance of winning, while Rep. John Avlon has a 20% chance, according to polling projections from The Hill/DDHQ.
D’Esposito’s odds of winning in District 4 are 40 percent, compared to rival Laura Gillen’s 60 percent, according to polling projections from The Hill/DDHQ.
According to polling projections from The Hill/DDHQ, incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan (D) has a 90% chance of winning New York’s 18th District, while Republican candidate Alison Esposito has only a 10% chance.
According to The Hill/DDHQ polling predictions, in District 19, incumbent Mark Molinaro (Republican) has a 44% chance of winning, while Josh Riley has a 56% chance of winning.
republican Incumbent Brandon Williams of New York’s 22nd District has a 44% chance of winning, while John Mannion (D) has a 56% chance of winning, according to The Hill/DDHQ polling projections.
Harris campaign rapid response adviser James Singer quickly noticed something missing from the rally list.
“The New York or New Jersey Republican Party is not a single swing district,” Singer wrote in a post on the social platform X on Saturday.
The Hill has reached out to the Trump campaign for comment.