As the Commanders prepare to face the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday, here’s some optimistic news for each team: The last four conference title games have had divisional rematches, with the winner going on to win the Super Bowl. .
The Rams beat the 49ers en route to the title in 2021, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in 2013, the Packers beat the Bears in 2010 and the Steelers beat the Ravens in 2008. It doesn’t matter how the regular season meets. Gone — the Rams were swept, the Steelers were swept, and the Seahawks and Packers split the first two games. The Eagles and Commanders did it this season.
The two games between Philadelphia and Washington were thrillers. In Week 11, the Eagles scored 20 straight points, including two touchdowns by Saquon Barkley in the fourth quarter, to win 26-18. In Week 18, the Commanders trailed 27-14 in the fourth quarter before rookie QB Jayden Daniels threw three touchdown passes, the last with six seconds left, to lead Washington to a 36-33 victory.
With that out of the way, here’s an in-depth analysis of the last two NFC teams, their biggest strengths, question marks, and X-factors.
2nd seed: Philadelphia Eagles
Biggest Strengths: We have to start with Barkley and the NFL’s second-best rushing attack, who has averaged 227 yards per game in the playoffs so far. The eliminated Ravens actually averaged more, but the last team to average more in the playoffs prior to this season was the 1974 Steelers (231). Adding Jalen Hurts gave the Eagles 184 rushing yards with just a touchdown in their divisional win over the Rams. Philly’s ground-and-pound strength countered Washington’s vulnerability, but Detroit rushed for 201 yards on 23 carries last weekend and the Commanders still beat the Lions by 14 points.
Can the Commanders contain Saquon Barkley in the NFC title game?
The biggest question marks: The Eagles’ passing game was almost non-existent. They had 65 net passing yards on Sunday, their lowest total for a playoff win in 14 years. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith combined for 35 yards on 11 targets, including 9 yards. If Washington’s defense can limit the runs, could Philadelphia gain an advantage through the air? Hurts played little before suffering a concussion in the Eagles’ Week 16 loss to the Commanders. In Washington’s Week 11 win over Philadelphia, he threw for 221 yards. So, recent evidence aside, it’s possible that the Philadelphia offense will be more balanced than it has been in the past two games.
X factor: Defensive lineman Jalen Carter is only 23 years old, but his last-second sack of Matthew Stafford to seal the win against the Rams was a reminder of what a game-breaker he can be. The Commanders will be without guard Sam Cosmi, who suffered a knee injury against the Lions, creating a weakness inside Washington’s offensive line as backup Trent Scott has started just one game this season. The Eagles’ record for sacks by a player in a playoff game is two, and it has happened seven times, including three in the last two weeks.
6th seed: Washington Commanders
Biggest Strengths: It’s not over yet. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels continues to improve and surprise as he leads Washington to its current seven-game winning streak. Daniels’ next touchdown pass would give him an NFL rookie record of five in the postseason. Yes, that’s a low number. But it’s a reminder of how rare it is for a rookie to lead his team to victory in January. The Eagles held everyone, not just Daniels, in check in the first meeting, including 191 passing yards and 18 rushing yards. However, in the second game, he recorded 5 touchdown passes and 81 rushing yards, clearly showing his potential for the future postseason.
Is Jayden Daniels the best rookie in NFL history?
(relevant: What are the 10 best seasons by a rookie QB in NFL history?)
The biggest question marks: Can the Washington defense hold the Eagles under 30 points? Detroit scored 31 points and totaled 521 yards of offense against the Commanders despite five turnovers. Washington is giving up 7.2 yards per play in the playoffs, the worst record among the 14 playoff teams. Barkley alone has averaged 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two games against Washington, so the task for the Commanders is to get to Hurts and curb his scrambling ability while also producing the game-changing long touchdown runs that Barkley has had all season. This is to prevent it.
X factor: Takeout. Washington and Philadelphia are tied as the team with the best turnover margin in the playoffs. Both were +6, had six turnovers and committed none. Any team that can maintain that will probably be headed to the Super Bowl. But looking back at the regular season, we see that Philadelphia has the advantage overall, with the Eagles at plus-11 and the Commanders at plus-1. Daniels’ ability to avoid mistakes while also being a catalyst for the entire offense is greatly underrated for all the praise rightly thrown at him.
prediction: It was inevitable that we would see a high-scoring game, but Daniels was too dangerous in the second half of the game. The divisional win over the Lions ended a five-game streak in which Washington won the last game. With two powerful offenses going head-to-head, this could come down to a red zone run. The Commanders ranked sixth in the regular season, while the Eagles ranked 13th. However, in red zone defense, Philadelphia ranked 5th and Washington ranked 22nd. We’ll have the Eagles get a home win and advance to their second Super Bowl in three seasons. Eagles 38, Commanders 28
Greg Auman is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent 10 years covering: pirate for Tampa Bay Times and Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter. @gregauman.
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