Give John Calipari credit for discovering the perfect way to avoid an extended streak of early NCAA Tournament exits.
If you sit on the couch and watch, you’ll never get a boner again.
Arkansas is at great risk of missing the NCAA Tournament in Calipari’s highly anticipated debut season after unremarkable non-league play and a nightmare start to SEC play. Preseason no. 16 The Razorbacks lost 78-74 at previously struggling LSU on Tuesday night, dropping to 11-6 overall and 0-4 in the SEC.
I was wondering when that was – no. On the first Saturday in January in Knoxville, Tennessee ranked 24th ahead of Arkansas. The warning signs became more ominous as the Razorbacks suffered back-to-back home losses against nationally ranked Ole Miss and Florida last week. Now it’s full-blown panic time in Hog Country after Arkansas went to Baton Rouge for an apparent win game against one of the SEC’s only non-NCAA tournament contenders and somehow lost.
Despite playing without its third and fourth leading scorers due to injuries, LSU erased a deficit of 12 points in the second half of the first half and eight points within a few minutes of the second half. The Tigers (12-5, 1-3) built a nine-point lead of their own with less than five minutes left before overcoming full-court pressure and a late scoring blast from standout Arkansas freshman Boogie Fland to close out the win. . .
Calipari’s postgame press conference Tuesday night was reminiscent of many he delivered after losses later in his Kentucky tenure. He took responsibility for failing to adequately prepare his team, but gave few specifics about the adjustments he wanted to make.
“I have to do a better job with my team,” Calipari told reporters twice in Baton Rouge. He later explained that he was disappointed that he “couldn’t keep up with these guys” and claimed “I might have to take them to the finish line in a close race like this.”
There’s still time for Arkansas to dig itself out of its mid-season hole, but the Razorbacks’ road to the NCAA Tournament has many ups and downs and obstacles. The neutral court win over Michigan is Arkansas’ only Quadrant 1 or 2 win in seven opportunities this season. The Razorbacks’ second-best win of the season was… Lipscomb? Troy? Maybe 4-13 ACC doormat Miami?
The SEC’s historic strength could be Arkansas’ salvation or its demise. On the one hand, there are plenty of opportunities left for a big win in a league that currently has nine teams ranked in the AP top 25. On the other hand, according to Ken Pomeroy, the Razorbacks will only be favored in five of the remaining 14 conference games. At this point, Arkansas has a better chance of finishing in the bottom third of the SEC than making the NCAA Tournament.
The fact that Calipari’s former program is thriving in his absence only highlights Arkansas’ struggles. Kentucky coach Mark Pope didn’t inherit a single returning player from Calipari, but the roster he rebuilt on the fly through the transfer portal is 14-3 overall and 3-1 in the SEC. Powered by a slick, modern offense, Kentucky has posted impressive wins over Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M. If the season ended today, the Wildcats would be no worse than a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Deep-pocketed Arkansas boosters envisioned a similar outcome when they splashed big money to lure Calipari from Kentucky last spring. A fresh start seemed like a win-win for both sides, with Calipari needing an off-ramp from Lexington and Arkansas in search of excitement.
Calipari’s tenure at Kentucky wasn’t perfect. For nearly a decade, he has made the Big Blue Nation’s wildest dreams come true. The revolving door of one-on-one talent he brought in led them to win an SEC title, make the NCAA Tournament and even win a national title in 2012. But the program, which was two wins away from a historic 40-0 season in 2015, never reached those heights again. Calipari’s Wildcats will face No. 15-seeded St. Louis in the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament. After the loss to Peters and last year’s loss to 14th-seeded Oakland, the atmosphere in Lexington became especially toxic.
Observers have since learned that a fresh start requires more than a change of address and an influx of red blazers and quarter-zip pullovers. You can’t hire a 65-year-old coach, have him bring in assistants for a long time, and then expect different results.
Armed with NIL money that few other programs can match, Calipari has assembled a roster that doesn’t mesh well together or fit the modern game. Fland and fellow perimeter players DJ Wagner, Johnell Davis and Karter Knox can all hit 3-pointers, but are best attacking downhill with the ball in their hands. Having forward Adou Thiero and center Jonas Aidoo together in the frontcourt worsens the spacing, as neither is a threat from 3-point range.
As a team, Arkansas is shooting 33.7 percent from behind the arc and ranks 248th nationally in percentage of points scored from 3-point range. Opposing defenses can afford to clog driving lanes, paint the paint, and get the Razorbacks up for contested jumpers early in the shot clock.
A hallmark of Calipari’s best Kentucky teams was a long, stout defense that aggressively suppressed 3-point shooters but didn’t give up anything easily at the rim. This Arkansas team has a better defense than Calipari’s most recent Kentucky team, but they commit too many fouls and give up too many second-chance points to make up for the Razorbacks’ offensive issues.
It didn’t help that a tough call was made against LSU and against Arkansas at a critical juncture in the second half. LSU led 53-52 when the referee called it a flagrant foul on Arkansas’ Trevon Brazile. The Razorbacks trailed 58-52 until they got the ball back.
How will Arkansas respond to a dismal SEC start made worse by the LSU loss? Despite the tough upcoming schedule, Calipari says he has effort and energy. Arkansas visits Missouri and hosts Georgia and Oklahoma on Saturday. In February, games against Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, Texas and Texas A&M await.
“I told them after the game, ‘I’m not going to break, so let’s keep going,’” Calipari said Tuesday.
The Razorbacks have no choice.
Now it’s either a disappointing season or Calipari’s debut campaign in Fayetteville ends ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
