This year is called ‘election year’ as large-scale elections are being held around the world. michael cox Although many of these elections have been tumultuous, we should not forget that democracy remains the political system of choice in most countries in the world today, he wrote. But he concludes with the following question: Will this last forever?
2024 is probably best remembered by political scientists as the year in which more voters turned out to vote in at least 64 countries than at any other time in history. That’s good news, at least.
But if one of the goals of free and fair elections is to allow for a relatively stable transition of power, they have clearly not worked everywhere. Bangladesh is a good example of failure. Nothing seemed to go right. First, the main opposition party boycotted the polls in January. This led to political unrest. And in August, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled abroad to escape deadly protests.
Nothing so dramatic happened in Europe. In fact, pro-EU parties still maintain a majority in the European Parliament. Nonetheless, populist, nationalist and far-right parties have made gains. Meanwhile, uncertainty reigned in France and Germany, with Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz facing intense political pressure at home. In fact, by the end of the year, the political situation in both countries was so uncertain that some people feared for the future.
And in November there was the US presidential election. In some ways, this election was a model of democratic validity. But even though more than 150 million citizens voted, not for a minute did anyone believe that order would soon return to what many now call “the separate states of America.”
In Romania, further discord followed the first round of voting in the presidential election when the Constitutional Court annulled the vote on the grounds of external interference. Meanwhile, in Georgia, elections held in October were still causing controversy and protests on the streets of the capital Tbilisi six weeks later.
The only election that actually took place ~ no It was the events held in England in July and in Ireland in November that caused division and discord. This isn’t the first time in history that two islands off the coast of mainland Europe have bucked the trend!
Going back to the future?
Perhaps we shouldn’t have been surprised by any of this. Inflation is lowering living standards around the world, inequality is rising, migration pressures continue, trade uncertainty threatens growth, the Middle East is on fire, Ukraine is at war, and much of the Global South is ideologically opposed to North Korea’s double standards. There is a revolt, and in Russia too. With Putin-era and Xi-era China working together to overturn the Western-led ‘rules-based order’, we are not exactly living in normal times.
Add to this Russia’s seeming (or so alleged) interference in European politics on an almost industrial scale, and it is not surprising that many experts feel gloomy about the future of democracy. Some people even believe that we are on the brink of something even more terrible. This certainly seems to be the view of Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who has been claiming for some time that we are facing a “1938 moment” that could easily devolve into a much worse situation in the future.
– Cautious – Reasons for Optimism
It’s easy to be pessimistic right now because there’s so much going wrong. Indeed, pessimism itself has now become intellectually fashionable in the West. This is quite a contrast to the post-Cold War era when Europe was at peace, when America was led by incredibly intelligent liberals like Bill Clinton. Globalization seemed to provide the answer to most of the world’s economic challenges.
And you would have to be intellectually blind not to see that democracy is under pressure. In fact, over the years there has been very little different story from book to book. But we should be careful about assuming that it is on the verge of collapse or at its “moment” in the late 1930s.
Let’s take Putin’s Russia as an example. There is no doubt that it is dangerous and warlike. However, the same was true for the former Soviet Union, which did not hesitate to be repressive towards repressive countries such as Finland (1940), Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968), and Afghanistan (1979). “General Line”.
Meanwhile, China is clearly a challenge to liberal democracy. And according to Xi Jinping, this is a real alternative to what he sees as the “declining West.” But China, even under President Xi, has a huge stake in the current global economic order. It also faces major challenges, including high unemployment among graduates, the collapse of the real estate market and, most importantly, slowing growth.
If democracies are looking for hope in these anxious times, today’s Europe is often described as a disaster. As we have seen, the problems it faces are all too real. But compared to the interwar period, let alone the Cold War, we are in much better shape now. Not only is it wealthier and more peaceful than ever before, but – although you wouldn’t know it from reading some records – support for democracy across the continent, and indeed for the EU itself, is still incredibly high.
best of worst
As we have shown, there is no doubt that we are living in very turbulent times that many democracies are finding very difficult to navigate successfully. But as we look ahead into the unknown, we need to remind ourselves that while there were very few democracies at the beginning of the 20th century, and three-quarters of a century later there are still fewer than 50, today there are about 130.
Of course, even the best democracies are imperfect. Moreover, in a world under enormous global pressure, Erica Benner asks in her most recent book: – It is fair to ask whether this is a form of government based on endless arguments between bickering, sometimes misinformed and often self-interested citizens. , are you ready for the challenge?
Benner offers no easy answers. But in the end, she believes yes. But only if we don’t all sell ourselves on the idea that voting in the freest and fairest election will solve all our problems. To quote Boehner himself, “tying democracy to progress can foster a dangerous arrogance.” This is undoubtedly true.
But to survive into the 21st century, democracy must offer much more than it does now. As pointed out here, if 2024 has any indication, it is that democracy is still widely popular, as Churchill once quipped, the ‘best of the worst’ form of government.
But the problem still remains. Can the majority of the population survive if we fail to provide them with what they need most: economic whiplash, adequate health care, and a fair crack at everyday security? If you provide the bare minimum, you might survive. But if we fail to do so, we can reasonably ask the question. If not, or if not, what follows?
Note: This article gives the views of the author and not the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Main image source: LCV /Shutterstock.com
