Le Pen’s rise shows the scale of polarization

“I’m scared of what’s going to happen,” Amel, 34, told CNBC ahead of the final vote in France’s snap election this weekend.

The results of the vote are being watched closely across all sectors of French society to see whether the nationalist, anti-immigrant National Rally (RN) can build on its early gains in the first round, or whether centre-left parties can thwart its chances of entering government.

“It’s a very, very tense time. And it’s the first time that the far right has won the first round. So it’s a very big deal,” added Amel, a therapist who said she would vote for the left-wing New Popular Front party.

“We are very anxious and trying to get everyone to vote, to tell people who are not voting to go and vote, and to convince people who are voting for the far right that it is not a good answer (to France’s problems).”

France’s far-right RN party rejects the label “extremist” and says it represents French values, culture and citizens at a time when many are fed up with the political system that President Emmanuel Macron has led since 2017.

But the RN’s opponents and critics warn that France is on the brink of political disaster if the anti-immigrant, nationalist, Eurosceptic party wins a majority in the snap elections called by Macron after the party lost heavily to the far right in June’s European Parliament elections. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has said French voters now have a “moral obligation” to stop the party’s advance.

For young, left-leaning voters like Amel, the RN’s surge in the polls and its lead in the first round last weekend are worrying developments that threaten France’s social cohesion.

“I am worried about the future of the country. I think things are getting worse,” said Amel, who preferred to be identified only by his first name because of the sensitivity of the situation. “It will be like a civil war. I hope it won’t get to that point, but people will stop getting along and will be afraid of each other. It’s really scary.”

The snap election has revealed a sharp political polarization in the country, suggesting the country is deeply divided, according to polls conducted ahead of Sunday’s final vote.

In the first round of voting, the far-right nationalist RN party won 33% of the vote, the left-leaning New Popular Front (NFP) won 28%, and the coalition of parties supporting Macron (Ensemble or Together) won 20%.

After the first round, the center-right and left parties made an all-out effort to prevent the RN from advancing to the second round, and to prevent the party from gaining a parliamentary majority at all costs. The center-right and left parties, who had joined forces in the so-called “Republican Front”, withdrew their candidates from many constituencies where one of their candidates was more likely to defeat the RN.

The anti-far right front hopes that by giving voters a clearer choice and fewer options, voters will vote for non-RN candidates. It is still unclear whether this will work, and analysts point out that French voters may not be receptive to being told how to vote or who to vote for.

The final result on Sunday evening was an early election that Macron did not need to demand, and will show how difficult it can be to find consensus in national politics and government in the coming years.

It is also unclear how the public will react to the result. France is no stranger to civil unrest, given the widespread “yellow vest” anti-government movement in recent years and the street protests following the first round of voting on June 30.

The French Interior Ministry appears to be bracing for more trouble after Sunday’s vote, with around 30,000 police officers said to be ready to deploy across France on Sunday night amid concerns of violence after the polls close. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin reportedly said 5,000 police would be deployed in Paris and surrounding areas to “make sure the radical right and radical left do not take advantage of the situation to create chaos.”

French police have been accused of using excessive force to suppress protests during previous riots, including using water cannons and tear gas on “yellow vest” protesters in 2019.

“The French elections are a mess,” a member of the Gendarmerie, the military in charge of law enforcement and public order, told CNBC. “The divisions in France have rarely been this intense.”

“People are becoming more and more divided, and you see that in everyday life,” the officer, who requested anonymity because of the nature of his job, told CNBC.

The police officer, a father of three in his 40s and a right-wing voter, said the polarization of French society was “very worrying but unfortunately normal with the ‘diversity’ of our society”.

“There are more and more cases where people with different values ​​and education levels are forced to coexist, and it is clearly not working,” said a police officer working in Bordeaux, southwestern France.

“I am concerned about the future of our country because we are too tolerant of people who are not willing to integrate and contribute to society. This situation cannot last.”

Police said social unrest was expected after the vote, regardless of which party received the most votes.

“There will be civil unrest no matter who gets elected. This is France and the people have their say.”

Political experts agree that the current charged atmosphere in French politics and the hostility between key voter groups are factors that are fueling further social unrest.

“There are all the ingredients for a highly polarized political scene here, and of course that spills over into civil society as a whole,” Philippe Marlier, professor of French and European politics at University College London, told CNBC.

“If only 33-34% of people are voting for the far right, that means the rest are wary of it or completely against it. So that will be reflected in all levels of politics: institutional politics, party politics, parliament, and society. It will be a very polarized society, which is very worrying for the younger generation, minorities, women, and feminists in particular,” he said.

Marlière did not rule out violence on the streets if a far-right party is elected to government. “We are not there yet, but if you have policies that are very unpopular, very hostile, very hostile to certain groups, you will see demonstrations on a scale that will cause unrest in the streets,” he said.

Like other hard-right parties in Europe, the National Rally has tapped into voters’ anxiety over crime, immigration, national identity and economic instability. The RN’s 28-year-old leader, Jordan Badella, has told voters he will “restore order”, curb immigration and tackle crime, but he and his party’s leader, Marine Le Pen, have backed off some of the more hard-line promises and rhetoric, such as pulling back on France’s withdrawal from NATO and softening the party’s traditionally pro-Russian stance.

Bardella said he still supported arms transfers to Ukraine but opposed the ground troop deployment that Macron had said was a possibility.

It is unclear how many of National Rally’s policies will be enacted even if the government is formed. The “Republican Front” also seems confident that its strategy of lowering RN’s vote share ahead of the second round of voting will work.

According to an Ifop poll published on July 3, voters are more likely to favor a centrist pro-Macron or left-wing candidate if they are presented with an RN candidate on Sunday’s ballot. But when faced with a choice between far-left and far-right candidates, the picture is more nuanced, with the vote split.

Analysts predict that while the RN is unlikely to win an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, it is still likely to win the most votes, which would lead to gridlock in parliament, a headache for Macron, and uncertainty over France’s political and economic outlook.

“The political landscape is in disarray and can no longer function properly, at least not under the old rules,” Ipsos analyst Mathieu Douare told CNBC on Thursday.

“We are in a situation so far removed from our traditions and political customs that it is very difficult for all stakeholders to adapt to this new situation.”