Latvia will hold European Parliament elections on June 8. Downeys Auer He wrote that the campaign was dominated by a series of scandals hitting the ruling New Unity alliance.
This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog will also co-host a panel discussion on the LSE elections on 6 June.
In early May 2024, Latvia celebrated the 20th anniversary of its accession to the European Union. There has been much debate about the economic benefits of access to the single market and structural and cohesion funds that have rebuilt Latvia’s core infrastructure, rural areas and urban environment.
At the same time, there has been some unfortunate discussion about why Latvia lags so far behind economically compared to its Baltic neighbors Estonia and Lithuania. Latvia’s aging but still influential former president, Vira Vīķe Freiberga, has positioned herself as the country’s moral conscience, going so far as to say that without the EU, Latvia would have gone down the same path as Belarus.
Instead, Latvia is preparing for its fifth European Parliament election on June 8. This election was expected to be dominated by the war in Ukraine. Ultimately, Latvia shares a 284km border with Russia and 173km with Belarus, and has been the target of direct and indirect military, cyber, and hybrid threats from Russia since regaining its sovereign independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union. August 1991.
Kariņš’s plans are derailed
But media attention has instead focused on the dominant New Unity (JV, EPP Group) party, which has been hit by a series of scandals that could damage its popularity and seat share in European Parliament elections. It is possible that a European Commissioner will be elected after the vote.
The biggest scandal centered around Krišjānis Kariņš, who in October 2022 became the first prime minister in Latvia’s history to serve a full four-year term. His ruling Joint Venture party won a landslide victory in the October 2022 general election, returning Karins as prime minister. The Prime Minister’s Office, head of the new three-party coalition government.
In June 2023, Kariņš’s preferred presidential candidate, JV’s long-time Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvics, was elected by the Latvian parliament. A few months later, Kariņš traded his position as Prime Minister for that of Minister of Foreign Affairs, leveraging his close relationship with his successor, Prime Minister Evika Siliņa (JV), to secure his nomination for the post of European Commissioner for Latvia.
However, Latvia’s current long-serving member, Valdis Dombrovskis (JV), is still hoping to be reappointed for a third term, frequently citing his influence as the current effective second-in-command in the European Commission hierarchy. He holds the position for an economy that works for people and is also European Trade Commissioner).
But Kariņš’s European plans began to unravel from November 2023, when media reports began to appear about his extensive use of private jets. A state auditor’s report finding that many of the flights were illegal and a waste of taxpayers’ money led Kariņš to resign.
He returned to parliament and enthusiastically participated in European political campaigns, but he became a very withdrawn person. Despite unsubstantiated allegations of illegal party financing and other JV scandals involving attempts to influence election results, Dombrovskis is now expected to be re-nominated for the post of Latvian commissioner.
Russia’s war in Ukraine
JV’s struggles provided plenty of campaign material for the competing parties. But the war in Ukraine affected the election. First, the border between Latvia and Russia is not closed and people and goods continue to flow in both directions.
Recent investigations have shown that manganese ore continues to flow through Latvian ports to Russia, where it is used in the production of military equipment. Latvia is also the largest supplier of whiskey to Russia, and Russian grains also continue to move through Latvian ports. This has raised questions about the EU’s trade and sanctions policies.
Second, like in other European countries, farmers in Latvia took to the streets at the beginning of the year to protest the EU’s Green Deal and demands specific to Latvia, including a reduction in value-added tax on fruits and vegetables to 5% specific to Latvian agriculture. . “. As a result, the campaigning parties made the defense of Latvian farmers and rural areas a central part of their party programs.
Third, in the two years since the war began, Latvia has undertaken an intensive and extensive program of de-Russification and de-Sovietization. Russian-speaking public schools are being phased out, and the Riga municipality has renamed the Pushkin Academy to the Riga Broce Academy (for Johann Christoph Broce, a Baltic German since the Age of Enlightenment), renamed Pushkin Street, and renamed the Pushkin Academy in Riga’s central park. The statue has been removed.
The Conservative Party (KP) has staked its claim on public support for de-Russianization and has put forward Liāna Langa, a divisive Latvian writer who has led the de-Russianization movement in Latvia over the past two years, as a leading candidate for the European Parliament elections. 2024. For liberalism! The (European Renewal) party responded to the conflict by nominating Ivanna Voločija, a Ukrainian with Belgian citizenship, as its lead candidate.
At the same time, one of Latvia’s longest-serving lawmakers, Tatiana Zhdanoka (Latvian Russian Federation, LKS), was banned from parliament after being accused of being a Russian agent after her private email correspondence with a Latvian journalist was leaked. election. Pro-Russian speakers’ parties, such as the Harmony Social Democratic Party (SSD, S&D Group), send coded messages of support for Russia to Russian-speaking voters through slogans such as “For peace and security” (meaning “peace”). came. interpreted as support for Russia in Latvia).
Other prominent EU-related issues include securing financing for the growing costs of the rapidly growing Baltic Railway Project (a north-south rail axis linking the Baltic states with Poland via a new greenfield European gauge railway line), and the EU’s new defense industry projects. etc. Strategy and future expansion (Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia).
latest poll
In Latvia, trust in the European Parliament (and the EU in general) is much higher than trust in domestic institutions. Latvians tend to support mature and experienced politicians in European elections and generally believe that they are best placed to support broader Latvian national interests.
As a result, the National Alliance (NA, European Conservative and Reform Group), whose campaign is led by the Vice President,
European Parliament President Roberts Zīle (MEP since 2004), JV and SSD (both of whom have an experienced lineup of candidates) are leading the polls. The Progressive Party (PRO, Greens/EFA), the populist Latvian First Party (LPV) and the rural conservative United List (AS) are also polling over the 5% barrier needed to secure seats in the European Parliament.
Impact on domestic politics
All eyes will be on JV’s Kariņš’s performance in this election. If he does not fare well and is not elected to the European Parliament or appointed to the Commission, he may become angry at his party’s lack of political support and consider withdrawing from the JV. Some JV members of parliament may be tempted to follow him and leave the government with a parliamentary majority.
Note: This article gives the views of the author and not the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union
