Indian-ruled Kashmir – Kashmiris are voting to elect a local government for the first time in five years after India’s Hindu nationalist government suspended the state legislature and brought the Muslim-majority region under direct rule from New Delhi.
The elections, which came just weeks after New Delhi expanded the powers of a handpicked administrator in the region, drew criticism from mainstream Kashmiri political parties and India’s main opposition Congress party, which said the government’s move “deprived” the region’s legislature of its powers.
Kashmir has been the center of conflict between India and Pakistan for 77 years. Both countries control parts of the Himalayan territory but claim sovereignty over it in its entirety.
So how important are local elections, and do they help solve local problems, from high unemployment to deep-rooted discontent over politics and human rights?
When is the election?
The state elections, which will be held for the first time in 10 years, will be held in three phases starting September 18.
The second and third rounds of voting will take place on September 25 and October 1, respectively. The results will be announced on October 8.
The elections were held after India’s Supreme Court ruled in December last year to allow the region to elect its representatives.
Nine million Kashmiris have registered to vote in the region, which is traditionally known for its boycotts in protest against Indian rule.
But in parliamentary elections earlier this year, Kashmiris turned out in large numbers, voting in what analysts described as a “protest vote” against India’s 2019 decision to scrap the region’s limited autonomy.
Academic and political expert Siddique Wahid told Al Jazeera that the main reason Kashmiris are so active in the electoral process is their collective desire to prevent the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from coming to power in Kashmir.
“This happened during the recent parliamentary elections as well,” Wahid told Al Jazeera.
However, he warned that the BJP could win if votes are split among Kashmiri parties.
What’s on the horizon for this election?
Kashmir’s main political parties have pledged to fight for full statehood and restoration of the region’s special status.
They say the legislature has been weakened by local self-government and that former governor Omar Abdullah had told the new governor, a lieutenant governor appointed by New Delhi, that he would “have to appeal to him to appoint even one servant (worker).”
Another indicator that elections are just around the corner in J&K. This is why a firm commitment to restore J&K’s full and undiluted statehood, with a timeline, is a prerequisite for these elections. The people of J&K deserve better than a powerless and rubber-stamped CM. https://t.co/THvouV1TxF
— Omar Abdullah (@OmarAbdullah) July 13, 2024
In an interview with The Print website on Monday, Abdullah said the BJP-led government had “turned Kashmir into a place where we all become political prisoners of Delhi”.
In July, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government curtailed the powers of the state legislature and gave the lieutenant governor more powers, including control over police, public order, and transfers and postings of government employees.
Moreover, the state legislature would not be able to make laws on education, marriage, taxes, property, forests, etc.
Indian troops stationed in Indian-administered Kashmir to suppress armed rebellion already enjoy special powers.
Anger against Indian rule has deepened since the Modi government abrogated Article 370 of the constitution, which granted special status to the region to protect its demographics and culture. Modi has said the special status has hampered the region’s development by restricting outside investment in sectors such as real estate and property, and by making it harder for Kashmiri society and economy to integrate into mainstream India, according to the government.
But Anissa Farooq Jan, a Kashmir researcher, told Al Jazeera that while Article 370 remains a pressing issue, there is widespread pessimism among Kashmiris about what can be done to change it even if local leaders want to.
“There is little hope among the people for human rights issues or political solutions.”
Radha Kumar, a New Delhi-based scholar and writer, said the powers granted to the lieutenant governor were “completely absurd”.
“I expect the new Congress and elected administration to make more noise than before on human rights issues and other issues,” she said.
Additionally, the issue of large numbers of Kashmiri youth being held in distant Indian jails is a major problem, while regional challenges such as rising drug abuse and unemployment are also serious.
“I am a student and I will vote in the hope that it will help change the job scenario and free many people from prison,” Tabinda Arif, who attended a rally of the National Conference, the state’s oldest political party, told Al Jazeera. “Everyone has suffered too much in the last five years. Maybe things will change.”
But some voters have become disillusioned with politicians’ failure to keep past promises.
“These politicians come when they need votes and once they are in power they forget about it. I am tired now. I have always voted but nothing has changed for me,” said Abdul Rashid, a 65-year-old farm labourer from Pulwama.
“Only a miracle can change our situation.”
Could electoral district rigging affect election results?
Kashmiri politicians and analysts have accused Modi’s BJP of “manipulating” constituencies along regional lines.
They say the constituencies were readjusted as part of the 2022 demarcation process, aimed at increasing the seat share of the Hindu-majority Jammu region at the expense of the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley.
The total number of seats in the regional legislature increased from 87 to 90, but Jammu region’s share increased from 37 to 43, while Kashmir Valley’s share increased by just one seat to 47.
The move has been widely criticised for skewing representation in favour of Jammu, which has 44 per cent of the population but 48 per cent of the seats in the National Assembly.
The BJP has also been accused of supporting independent candidates to split the vote, potentially weakening the opposition.
The number of independent candidates is the highest ever, with 145 candidates registered in the first two stages.
However, the BJP has denied accusations that it is backing independent voters to split the Kashmiri vote.
“This is all nonsense. We live in a democracy and independent candidates have the right to fight elections,” Ashok Cole, the BJP’s general secretary in the area, told Al Jazeera.
“We are also getting more and more support in Kashmir because people have seen the development we have brought to the region. The opposition can say whatever they want,” he said.
“We expect to improve our seat share in this election.”
Why is this election important?
These are the first local council elections in the region since the last democratically elected government collapsed in 2018. Since then, Kashmir has been ruled directly from New Delhi.
Many people feel that their concerns are not adequately addressed by federal authorities.
“The people are the most helpless and helpless,” said Abid Ahmed, a 20-year-old university student from south Kashmir’s Anantnag district, while attending a political rally in his village.
“I don’t know what the new government will be able to do, but at least there will be someone to approach,” he added.
Many experts say the importance of an election lies largely in what it symbolizes.
“The election is not significant in terms of its impact on the functioning of the Union Territory. But it has assumed significance given the fact that it has been turned into a sort of referendum on Article 370,” Sheikh Showkat Hussain, a Kashmiri political analyst, told Al Jazeera.
Experts say it is also important for New Delhi to hold elections to show that “normalcy” has returned to the region after the controversial changes in 2019.
“Successful elections and local government will not only demonstrate New Delhi’s confidence in local political actors but, more importantly, validate its claim that it has won over the people,” said MW Malla, a Delhi-based Kashmir researcher.
Who are the main players in this competition?
The major political forces are the National Congress (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
The NC, led by Farooq Abdullah, has dominated Kashmir’s political landscape for the past 70 years. The Abdullah family also maintains close ties to the Nehru-Gandhi family of India, which leads the main opposition Congress party.
NC is running in coalition with the Congress Party.
The party won two of the three seats in the Kashmir Valley in the recent Indian parliamentary elections, but its veteran leader Omar Abdullah lost to independent candidate Engineer Rashid.
The PDP is led by Mehbooba Mufti, who became the region’s first woman governor in a coalition government with the BJP in 2016.
It came to power in 2002 and emerged as the largest party in the 2014 elections. But the party’s decision to share power with the BJP in 2014 angered some Kashmiris, who blame the Hindu nationalist party for the region’s current political turmoil.
This was reflected in the assembly election results as well, with Mufti performing poorly as he lost in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency.
This time, Iltiza Mufti, daughter of Mehbooba Mufti, is contesting from her family’s home constituency, Srigupwara-Vivehara.
NC has pledged to restore the region’s special status and work to repeal the controversial Public Safety Act (PSA), which is used to detain people without trial.
The party also said it would seek amnesty for all political prisoners held in jail and call for talks between India and Pakistan to bring peace to the region.
However, some analysts say the entry of banned “separatist” groups like Engineer Rashid’s Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) into the race could potentially affect the poll numbers.
Some see Jamaat’s participation as a landmark step forward for the Indian state, as it can now claim to have united groups that once called for Kashmir to be merged with Pakistan or for independence.
What are the opinion poll ratings for the ruling BJP?
While the BJP is making political inroads in the Kashmir valley, it has also consolidated a strong presence in the Hindu-majority southern Jammu region.
They claimed that the area was free of “terrorism.” But while the number and scale of attacks by armed groups have decreased, they have not stopped.
In fact, even in Jammu, a region not traditionally known for armed attacks, such incidents have increased. Since 2021, 124 security forces personnel have been killed in the conflict zone, at least 51 of them in Jammu.
Addressing a political rally in Jammu’s Doda district on September 14, Prime Minister Modi said the stones that were collected to attack police and army were now being used to build a new Jammu and Kashmir.
“This is a new era of progress. Terrorism is in its final stages here.”
But on the same day, two Indian soldiers were killed by suspected militants in the nearby Kishtwar district.
The BJP is not expected to win in Kashmir, where it is fielding 19 candidates, but it is hoping to win most of the seats in Jammu, where it is contesting all 43 seats.
