Washington DC – Israeli troops will be fighting in the Gaza Strip for at least the next seven months, Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi said earlier this week.
The forecast has raised concerns about the fate of the Palestinian territories, which are already facing famine, mass displacement and daily violence in Israel that has claimed more than 36,000 lives since Oct. 7.
A prolonged war could also harm Joe Biden’s November re-election campaign, experts say. That’s because the U.S. president is already seeing his public support plummet over his apparent support for Israel.
Khalil Jashan, executive director of the Arab Center in Washington, D.C., said that if Israel’s offensive on Gaza continues beyond the U.S. election on November 5, it means Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be able to outlast Biden.
“I would like to say that the scenario is unrealistic, but I can’t. That scenario is real. And that could happen on November 5,” Jahshan told Al Jazeera.
For months, advocates have warned that Netanyahu has a personal political interest in prolonging the war to strengthen his political position at home.
In Biden’s case, the opposite is true. Currently, several public opinion polls in the United States predict that former Republican President Donald Trump will beat Biden in November. Although it is a relatively small difference.
A recent survey in Israel showed Netanyahu regaining popularity and outpacing his main rival, War Cabinet Secretary Benny Gantz.
Gaza War Hurts Biden
Josh Lubner, a lecturer in Georgetown University’s Justice and Peace Program, said there is no doubt that the Gaza war will diminish Biden’s chances of re-election.
“The signs are clear. The writing is on the wall,” Ruebner told Al Jazeera.
“And if Biden decides to continue this steadfast support for Israel for the next seven months, not only will tens of thousands more Palestinians be killed, but he will also lose the election.”
A poll conducted Wednesday by the Arab American Institute (AAI) showed Arab-American approval ratings for Biden in key swing states fell from 60% in 2020 to 18%, largely due to his Gaza policy.
AAI President James Zogby said it would be politically “dangerous” for Biden and Democrats if the war continues until the U.S. election in November.
“What this means is that unless the president does something very dramatic, this is not going to be an easy election for him,” he told reporters at a virtual news briefing.
Zogby added that Biden not only risks losing the support of Arab voters.
“Young people, black people and Asian people are watching genocide unfold every day. “They are not insensitive to what they are seeing,” he said.
“They are scared. Then the president said, ‘We haven’t even crossed the limit.’ Let’s just keep doing what we’re doing.’ It’s upsetting and hurtful.”
Breaking News – AAI 2024 Election Poll #Arab American Major states: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia.
Important discoveries:
– Biden approval rating 18%
– 88% oppose Biden’s handling of Gaza
– 80% think Gaza is important in deciding to vote.–>https://t.co/1IIdSHOMnF pic.twitter.com/Sqtsvs39fZ
— Arab American Institute (@AAIUSA) May 30, 2024
Still, Biden has shown no signs of changing course on his pro-Israel policy, even as Netanyahu publicly defies White House demands to avoid civilian casualties and not invade the southern Gaza city of Rafah.
For example, the U.S. president last month approved $14 billion in additional aid to Israel. And in May of this year, after threatening to withhold arms shipments if Israel launched a major offensive in Rafah, media reports emerged that the Biden administration was nonetheless planning to proceed with a $1 billion arms sale.
Ruebner said the Biden campaign is denying the impact of the president’s foreign policy on the election.
“There’s a lot of fantasy and fiction going on in Biden’s world that this doesn’t affect his re-election chances,” he said. “But it certainly is. And if he allows Israel to continue this behavior until the end of the year, I think that will play a big part in his defeat.”
A survey conducted by think tank Data for Progress in collaboration with news website Zeteo found earlier this month that 56% of Democratic respondents believe Israel is committing “genocide” in the Gaza Strip.
But several U.S. media reports say Biden and many of his Democratic supporters have doubts about polls showing him trailing Trump.
Will Israel Like Trump Better?
Biden has been an uncompromising supporter of Israel even before he was in the White House. But despite that stance, the Arab Center’s Jashan said Netanyahu and his right-wing allies would prefer to do a deal with Trump.
“They want to see Trump come back. “I think they will have their way with him,” he said.
Jahshan added that while Biden’s support for Israel is steadfast, the U.S. president’s calls for more support and protection of civilians in Gaza are considered “unpleasant” by Netanyahu’s camp.
Biden often publicly expresses his “love” for Netanyahu, but experts say the two leaders appear to have had a strained relationship, especially in recent months.
The U.S. president repeatedly warned Netanyahu not to invade Rafah, but Israel ignored the red line and launched a deadly attack on the southern Gaza city last month.
Prime Minister Netanyahu also seemed to dismiss Biden’s threat to halt arms shipments, saying in televised remarks, “If we have to stand alone, we will stand alone.” “I will fight with my fingernails if necessary,” he said.
Israel also continues to impose a suffocating siege on the Gaza Strip despite U.S. demands to allow more humanitarian aid into the territory.
Washington also favors a two-state solution to the wider conflict, while Netanyahu strongly opposes the creation of a Palestinian state.
Biden’s support for Israel has not wavered even though his pleas for Gaza have been ignored. But with Trump, Israel won’t even get this verbal warning, Jahshan said.
The former president, mired in legal troubles, did not regularly comment on the war in Gaza.
According to the Washington Post, President Trump promised donors in a recent closed-door meeting that he would crack down on pro-Palestinian student protesters if elected.
As president, Trump further shifted U.S. policy in line with Israel’s right-wing leadership. He moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, cut off his aid to the Palestinians, and imposed sanctions on International Criminal Court officials who investigated possible abuses by Israel.
“Trump is unpredictable. He could go in all kinds of different directions, most of them contradictory. “I think he will go in a worse direction than Biden (supporting Israel),” Zashan said.
