As Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s profile grows, questions are growing about whether he will be able to stand on the debate stage with President Biden and Donald Trump, and what effect that may have on the presidential race.
Independent candidates also have yet to collect enough signatures on most state ballots, so it’s not yet clear whether Kennedy, who has seen sporadic polling throughout his candidacy, will be eligible to participate in the televised forum.
But dissatisfaction with the frontrunners of both parties has opened up a potential third option, especially one that could receive significant amounts of money. Three polarization figures are possible.
“If Bobby can consistently poll above 15% between now and the fall and increase access to the polls, he has a legitimate opportunity to make the debate stage,” said Kennedy, who is familiar with the campaign’s messaging strategy. an ally told The Hill.
The first presidential debate on the committee’s schedule is scheduled for September 16 in Texas, and the vice presidential debate is scheduled for September 25 in Pennsylvania. Two more productions are scheduled for production in Virginia and Utah in October.
Kennedy said he would like to participate in the debate. action. He is seeking to go head-to-head with Biden and Trump, calling for an open exchange of ideas and criticism of existing policies before the American public. He wants voters to imagine a November election that goes beyond a grim two-party rematch.
“I should have a place in that debate,” Kennedy said on Fox News this week. “There are all these really existential problems, and neither one of them can really solve them.”
“We are in a state of greater polarization and division than at any time since the American Civil War,” he said.
As the drama unfolded, neither Biden nor Trump were enthusiastic about the idea of Kennedy as a threat, regardless of the debate’s moderator or schedule.
First, with Trump and Biden neck-and-neck in the polls, it could boost a third-party rival. Although Kennedy has family recognition, he is not as widely known as current or former presidents who have enjoyed the benefits of occupying the White House.
At this point in the race, it’s also unclear whose campaign he could shake up more. Biden and Trump are each competing for support among target voters frustrated with Washington politics. This includes independents, who are known for swinging one way or the other and with whom Kennedy sought to identify this cycle.
Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan, said Kennedy had this to say: Biden and Trump may each throw another “wild card” on stage as they seek the spotlight and want to avoid mistakes amid questions about their age and mental health.
Although Democrats and Republicans are now paying more attention to Kennedy’s campaign than in the past, they still view him as an unlikely candidate. His media activity primarily consists of podcasts and alternative shows, including appearances on select cable news channels. Appearing before a national audience, as opposed to his two competitors, could showcase him in front of a much larger audience.
Still, there is a fundamental question about whether Biden and Trump will debate each other. Trump has said he would debate Biden “anytime, anywhere, anywhere,” but the former president skipped all of the Republican primary debates this cycle, a move criticized by many of his former rivals and the Biden campaign. . There’s no guarantee he won’t do it again.
Biden’s team, meanwhile, said it was “excited” to debate Trump, perhaps going further than its more hesitant comments about the prospect in recent months.
Trump insisted he “knew nothing” about Kennedy while in New York this week for his hush trial. In a recent Truth Social post, Kennedy called the radical left-wing liberals appointed to help him. Crooked Joe Biden.”
“Look, RFK’s voter turnout is very low. He is not a serious candidate.” Trump said this when asked if he would debate independence in Manhattan.
“They say he hurt Biden. I don’t know who he hurt. He might hurt me, I don’t know. But he has a very low number, and it’s certainly not a number he can discuss. And he needs to get his numbers much higher before he can be trusted,” Trump added.
Some strategists believe Biden has an advantage over his two rivals. Trump’s ongoing legal battles and questions about Kennedy’s viability.
“If all three get on stage, I think President Biden will be the clear winner,” said Democratic strategist Kristen Hawn.
Hawn also pointed out that Trump’s criminal trial schedule has not yet been set, and that legal obligations could complicate debate plans or simply draw more attention.
Some of Kennedy’s allies said: Despite his troubles with the law, Trump may still want to take the stage if given the opportunity. “He’s open to mixing things up,” said a source familiar with Kennedy’s campaign. “He’s someone willing to discuss Bobby.”
But Biden supporters, including the Democratic National Committee, may be much less willing to advise the sitting president to debate Kennedy. Democrats have made clear they view him as someone who spreads conspiracy theories about vaccines and whose super PACs take money from Trump donors.
“The DNC will do everything it can to deny Bobby access to the podium.” Kennedy supporter sources speculated.
Kennedy and the Democratic establishment have been at odds for most of this year, with the two men divided on the grounds that Kennedy was biased against Biden and committee officials, criticizing his bid as a way to elevate Trump and building a narrative that he was a “spoiler.” has been created.
“The DNC orchestrated a visibly skewed democratic primary that resulted in Biden emerging as the nominee. Now they are stuck with Biden, who cannot beat Trump,” Kennedy wrote to X on Friday. “Can someone understand this?”
Kennedy called a news conference in New York on Wednesday to try to flip the script on Biden. You can’t beat Trump in a three-way match. His His own assessment, a true “spoiler” – a point he is likely to mention in a discussion setting.
Democrats were quick to denounce Kennedy’s briefing as merely a gimmick to divert focus from his long-term efforts.
“This is nothing more than a media stunt to distract from the fact that he has no way of securing the 270 Electoral College votes he needs to win,” said Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist.
“Because he cannot be elected, his candidacy will only serve to steal votes from other candidates. And no amount of stunts will change that,” Gordon said. “Staying in a race you have no way of winning is the definition of a spoiler.”
Kall, a scholar of presidential debates, expressed skepticism about Kennedy qualifying through the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), an organization that has sponsored every general election presidential debate for decades. One of the CPD requirements, along with the 15% threshold of qualifying polls, is that a particular candidate’s name must appear on enough state ballots to have “at least a mathematical chance of winning an Electoral College majority” in 2024. Critics say so. Stay strong Kennedy.
The Trump campaign has its own concerns about the process. Frustrated with CPD’s September start date, it called this week for other networks to tour the system and host debates outside of that schedule.
“If we go back to a very old setup where each network (hosts the debate) is different and can have their own standards, Kennedy’s chances of participation might be higher,” Kall said. — Trump and Biden may have to negotiate.
Whether Kennedy deserves the stage or not, current and former presidents “have much more to gain from a debate” than they would otherwise, said Tammy Vigil, a Boston University media science professor who focuses on political campaigns. .
“He’s really going to need a surge in support,” Vigil said of Kennedy. “It would be really interesting to see that debate, but I don’t think that’s very likely.”
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